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Notre Dame -7.5 against Indiana
Posted on 12/14/24 at 11:12 am
Posted on 12/14/24 at 11:12 am
Anyone else think this is free money?
ND is better at every position group and has been blowing out teams lately.
Who you like?
ND is better at every position group and has been blowing out teams lately.
Who you like?
6
Posted on 12/14/24 at 11:14 am to Chastains
the Irish. usually the hook indicates Vegas kinda likes the favorite but wants to bait people into betting the other side because of the .5. Irish 35-14
Posted on 12/14/24 at 11:16 am to Chastains
Indiana pulls the upset
Posted on 12/14/24 at 11:24 am to WaterLink
It’ll be cold so that favors the stronger running game and defense. I know ND has a good running game, but I believe Indiana has the #1 rushing defense.
I think the line is about right. I’d be hesitant to touch it.
I think the line is about right. I’d be hesitant to touch it.
This post was edited on 12/14/24 at 11:25 am
Posted on 12/14/24 at 11:40 am to Chastains
quote:
Anyone else think this is free money?
No, when the last time ND played a competent offense? Louisville? Ga Tech
Could they cover? Absolutely. Is it free money? Hell no, Indiana could win the game straight up
Posted on 12/14/24 at 11:55 am to JamalMurry27
quote:
usually the hook indicates Vegas kinda likes the favorite but wants to bait people into betting the other side because of the .5
Wrong
Vegas just wants even money on both sides to collect 10% on all games.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 12:16 pm to Arthur Bach
Notre dame does to Indiana what OSU did to Indiana.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 12:19 pm to Chastains
I will say, ND is physical as frick this year.
They still have perimeter limitations which would hinder them against peak SEC teams.
But they are - objectively - a pretty sold football team.
They still have perimeter limitations which would hinder them against peak SEC teams.
But they are - objectively - a pretty sold football team.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 12:23 pm to Arthur Bach
quote:
Vegas just wants even money on both sides to collect 10% on all games.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 12:45 pm to Chastains
One guarantee in the playoffs.
ND will choke.
ND will choke.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 12:46 pm to Arthur Bach
quote:
Vegas just wants even money on both sides to collect 10% on all games.
This couldn’t be more wrong. They take stands on games often. There are many ways to see how much money is on each side. When there is a lopsided amount, like say way more money on ND in this case, your best best is to bet against the public and with Vegas.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 12:49 pm to dukke v
I wouldn’t be surprised if Indiana wins. They’ve had time to rest and should be what they were in early-mid season form. Both teams played weak schedules.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 12:54 pm to nugget
quote:
This couldn’t be more wrong. They take stands on games often. There are many ways to see how much money is on each side. When there is a lopsided amount, like say way more money on ND in this case, your best best is to bet against the public and with Vegas.
Odds makers are going to open the line based on power rankings, but will absolutely adjust to mitigate their exposure on one side.
And you aren’t really right either, you can’t just look at the money. 40% of tickets may make up 70% of the money on a side. That means the sharps are on the minority of the tickets, but if you just looked at the money you’d be betting with the public
Posted on 12/14/24 at 12:57 pm to Arthur Bach
quote:
Wrong
Vegas just wants even money on both sides to collect 10% on all games.
wrong
Posted on 12/14/24 at 1:04 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
And you aren’t really right either, you can’t just look at the money. 40% of tickets may make up 70% of the money on a side. That means the sharps are on the minority of the tickets, but if you just looked at the money you’d be betting with the public
You can absolutely look at the money, you just don’t know how. And, of course, you’re also wrong that they try and limit exposure every time. The Bama UGA ship had 75+% of the money on UGA because they were dogs after they won.
And if I just looked at the money and saw there was 8 million on ND and 6 million on IU, and I bet IU, I’d be betting against the public.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 1:12 pm to nugget
quote:
And if I just looked at the money and saw there was 8 million on ND and 6 million on IU, and I bet IU, I’d be betting against the public.
You don’t know that without the distribution of the tickets. If one pro bet $5 million then the public is on Indiana
Posted on 12/14/24 at 1:17 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:Of course they adjust to mitigate exposure, but they certainly don't always adjust to even out the money on both sides just to guarantee the vig.
Odds makers are going to open the line based on power rankings, but will absolutely adjust to mitigate their exposure on one side.
quote:But that's not looking at the money, it's looking at the total bets.
And you aren’t really right either, you can’t just look at the money. 40% of tickets may make up 70% of the money on a side. That means the sharps are on the minority of the tickets, but if you just looked at the money you’d be betting with the public
If you assume that bookmakers both (a) sometimes take a strong position when they have great confidence, and (b) also mitigate risk to a degree, even when they do take a position, then you can also assume that when a large majority of bets are on one side, a majority of large bets (an imperfect proxy for sharps) are on the other side.
This post was edited on 12/14/24 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 12/14/24 at 1:32 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:If anywhere close to 35% of the total action (let alone 60+% of the money on one side) is from a single bettor, bookmakers are probably moving the line considerably or even taking it off the books.
You don’t know that without the distribution of the tickets. If one pro bet $5 million then the public is on Indiana
This post was edited on 12/14/24 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 12/14/24 at 1:39 pm to Gravitiger
I know Jack shite about gambling, except a bet between friends, but this tread is an indication why Vegas is so big.
Posted on 12/14/24 at 1:57 pm to Raoul Stimulato
quote:
I will say, ND is physical as frick this year. They still have perimeter limitations which would hinder them against peak SEC teams. But they are - objectively - a pretty sold football team.
Admittedly, I haven’t watched them much at all this year, but glancing at individual game stats, it seems that if you really limit their running game, they’re fricked. Stays show that Riley Leonard isn’t capable of carrying the offense with his arm.
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