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Started By
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If you want some salt to rub in the wounds: 2030 Apportionment
Posted on 11/11/24 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 11/11/24 at 1:55 pm
9
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:00 pm to Ag Zwin
Boil down: Almost every single state that loses votes went for Harris and every state that gains them went for Trump.
ETA: Missed PA when I said every state.
With this map, Trump’s margin blows past 100 EV’s.
ETA: Missed PA when I said every state.
With this map, Trump’s margin blows past 100 EV’s.
This post was edited on 11/11/24 at 2:26 pm
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:01 pm to Ag Zwin
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:02 pm to Ag Zwin
Look at this electoral map of 1928. OK had 10 votes and Cali only had 13. Cali was the only state west of OK that had more. Lots of wow factor when looking at how much its changed since then
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:06 pm to OU Guy
Florida the smallest state by population in the SEC? My how times change in a century.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:07 pm to Ag Zwin
It’s going to be crucial to win as many state assemblies as possible in 2028 and 2030. We need to have complete control of the re-districting that comes with this census.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:07 pm to Ag Zwin
We have the best 2030 maps don't we folks?!
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:08 pm to Geauxldilocks
Look at all the rust belt states thats where it was at!
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:09 pm to Geauxldilocks
quote:
Florida the smallest state by population in the SEC? My how times change in a century.
Air conditioning.
That’s it. That’s the explanation.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:09 pm to Ag Zwin
2030 is a LONG way to go in political terms. But if those projections hold and assuming the states all voted in 2032 the same way they voted in 2024, that would be a 324-213 R victory. With the loss of 12 EC votes from reliably "blue" state (CA, OR, MN, IL, NY, RI), even sweeping the "blue wall" plus getting Nevada's 6 wouldn't be enough to get to 270. Dems would have to sweep the "blue wall" PLUS take one of NC, GA, AZ.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:11 pm to OU Guy
What I notice: The “most bigoted” states in the country were the ones voting for someone now hailed as breaking a major discrimination barrier.
This post was edited on 11/11/24 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:12 pm to Ag Zwin
Eh, there was segregation throughout a lot of the country at the time.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:14 pm to Radio One
Louisiana isn't keeping the 6th Congressional Seat in 2030 unless something absolutely dramatic happens here.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:21 pm to Ag Zwin
So based on 2024 R/D states, the Blue states would have lost 12 EV, and the Red states net 12 (+13 minus 1 in PA).
So instead of 312/226 it would be 324/214. Or, Trump could have lost 54 EV and still hit 270.
So he could have lost WI, MI, PA, and NV (10+15+18+6 = 49) and still be above 270.
I don't think enough other states are close enough for the population to swing BLUE enough to flip the Electoral College votes for the state.
So instead of 312/226 it would be 324/214. Or, Trump could have lost 54 EV and still hit 270.
So he could have lost WI, MI, PA, and NV (10+15+18+6 = 49) and still be above 270.
I don't think enough other states are close enough for the population to swing BLUE enough to flip the Electoral College votes for the state.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:22 pm to MidWestGuy
quote:
MidWestGuy
Thanks for doing the math!
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:22 pm to Ag Zwin
PA is the only negative for states that voted for Trump, just -1.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:26 pm to OU Guy
quote:Only if you miss that minor state to your South.
Cali was the only state west of OK that had more.
The correct way to express your sentiment would be:
"Cali was the only state west of TX that had more."
Carry on.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:27 pm to Radio One
quote:
Eh, there was segregation throughout a lot of the country at the time.
You’re missing my point.
The states that helped break this barrier are the ones criticized today for being bigoted havens of “lost cause” and “Jim Crow” nostalgia.
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:29 pm to MrLSU
Why is Louisiana losing so much population?
Posted on 11/11/24 at 2:34 pm to Ag Zwin
They voted for Al Smith despite the fact that he was a Roman Catholic.
There was no way the Deep South, a century ago, was voting for a Republican. Frankly, I’m surprised that Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas voted for one.
ETA: And Tennessee and Kentucky!
Not a smart choice, Dems.
There was no way the Deep South, a century ago, was voting for a Republican. Frankly, I’m surprised that Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas voted for one.
ETA: And Tennessee and Kentucky!
Not a smart choice, Dems.
This post was edited on 11/11/24 at 2:35 pm
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