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ADP Private Payrolls 233,000 jobs in October, blows past expectations

Posted on 10/30/24 at 7:36 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 7:36 am
quote:

Private-job creation burst to its highest level in more than a year during October, despite a devastating storm season in the Southeast and major labor disruptions, ADP reported Wednesday.

The payrolls processing firm said companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000. ADP said it was the best month for job creation since July 2023.
Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient.”

The numbers counter expectations for a slowdown in October on the heels of two brutal hurricanes — Helene and Milton — that ravaged the Southeast, with Florida and North Carolina getting slammed in particular.

On top of that, labor disruptions with port workers and Boeing were expecting to hit payrolls as well, with some economists suggesting that October would be an outlier report that Federal Reserve officials would largely dismiss when meeting next week.

However, the ADP report indicates that the labor market has held up. In addition to hiring rising, wages grew 4.6% from a year ago.

Moreover, gains were widespread. Leading sectors included education and health services (53,000), trade, transportation and utilities (51,000), construction and leisure and hospitality, which added 37,000 apiece, and professional and business services, which contributed 31,000.



ADP LINK


This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 8:54 am
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179672 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 8:10 am to
How many were part time?

Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466921 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 8:21 am to
quote:


How many were part time?


Or funded directly/indirectly with federal money
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93811 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 8:45 am to
Man that .5 cut really stimulated the jobs market
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 8:48 am to
quote:

How many were part time?


ADP doesn’t separate them. That information comes from the household survey and is quite volatile.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 8:53 am to
quote:

Or funded directly/indirectly with federal money


It’s private companies but they can obviously be influenced by federal spending.



ADP LINK
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
32755 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 9:29 am to
Inflation incoming
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179672 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 9:57 am to
quote:

Man that .5 cut really stimulated the jobs market



This is going to send the 10 year yield higher and mortgage rates will remain above 7%
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93811 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 12:04 pm to
This report was revised down to 184k
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
36574 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 12:07 pm to
Seasonal work
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
77831 posts
Posted on 12/17/25 at 10:28 am to
quote:

This is going to send the 10 year yield higher and mortgage rates will remain above 7%


Mortgage rates are the low 6’s and have been for a while. Nowhere close to your above 7% prediction.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 12/17/25 at 11:34 am to
quote:

Mortgage rates are the low 6’s and have been for a while. Nowhere close to your above 7% prediction.


Average mortgage rates climbed to above 7% in January 2025, 3 months after stout made his post. Idk why you bumped this 1y old thread lol.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
77831 posts
Posted on 12/17/25 at 2:20 pm to
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
86266 posts
Posted on 12/17/25 at 3:41 pm to
Its currently low sixes which beats our long term average of over 7. Just not as good as pre covid levels when they were probably a bit too low.



quote:

The current mortgage rates, hovering around 6.26% for a 30-year fixed loan as of December 2025



In 1981 mortgage rates were at 18%. My Crybaby Millennial brethren has never seen something that high.





This post was edited on 12/17/25 at 3:44 pm
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