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Started By
Message
New Hampshire is in play
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:31 pm
More early vote evidence. Liberals....You made a very big mistake
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Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:33 pm to John Barron
New Hampshire legitimately being in play is a big deal as it gives him a path to 270 without any of the rust belt states thanks to Nevada.
However let's be honest, in a world where he's winning New Hampshire he's also winning all 3 rust belt states too.
However let's be honest, in a world where he's winning New Hampshire he's also winning all 3 rust belt states too.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:34 pm to StansberryRules
Correct. All early vote evidence is positive for Trump
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:36 pm to John Barron
I wouldn't waste time there if I'm the Trump campaign. Too many college educated whites there for Trump to flip that state. I think Trump would have to win the national vote by 2-3 points before NH flips into his camp. VA will flip before NH imho.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:37 pm to John Barron
This just shows that people in NH don't feel the need to vote early this year. GOP is not winning NH (but it might win VA or Maine at large).
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:44 pm to John Barron
Anyone compare all the swing states early voting to this point 2016 vs 2020 vs 2024?
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:46 pm to StansberryRules
quote:
However let's be honest, in a world where he's winning New Hampshire he's also winning all 3 rust belt states too.
I want an EV landslide. I want a popular vote win. I want majorities in both houses. I want gains at the state level.
Then I want to hear the lamentations of liberals and neocons, Conan-style.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:47 pm to slapahoe
New Hampshire is still a weird sort of place, even with all the immigration from Mass...they are still an ornery bunch of so and so's...
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:50 pm to John Barron
quote:
All early vote evidence is positive for Trump
What really matters is how we've seen voter's registration changing. Early voting is meh to me and can be very misleading because you don't know how it impacts Election Day voting. That brings me back to voter registration. If the states we're seeing cited here have dramatically increased republican numbers then the early voting numbers carry additional weight because we usually wait until Election Day. If not, it's just republicans voting early and then you'll see Election Day numbers drop from the usual levels. Kamala isn't a popular choice by any means but you know the dems absolutely hate everything to do with Trump and if word spreads that it looks like Trump is going to win based on early returns you'll see the dem GOTV machine ramp up quickly. You also have to consider how and why people voted early in 2020. Covid had them freaked the hell out so of course their early voting numbers would be really high. God knows they couldn't be around anyone in person.
There is still a long way to go and things look good but let's not get ahead of ourselves and act like this is wrapped up and I think that mindset is starting to take hold for some of us.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:51 pm to John Barron
Completely forgot that Trump only lost NH by 0.3% to Hilary in 2016. 2,736 votes
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:51 pm to John Barron
Do they still have same day voter registration? If so, they will bus enough college kids from Boston to cover the deficit as they have done in the past.
This post was edited on 10/24/24 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:51 pm to John Barron
These early voters. Did they vote in 2020?? That’s the question
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:53 pm to Bottom9
Correct. And they just sent Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden there 2 days ago. Some people are not able to read the tea leaves
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:55 pm to John Barron
This explains why Biden was dispatched to New Hampshire this week. Trump should send RFK up there to campaign for him.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:55 pm to John Barron
That's a small segment of data that really doesn't tell very much. Don't start betting on Trump to win NH just yet.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:57 pm to Riverside
quote:
Trump should send RFK up there to campaign for him.
That's a great idea. Hopefully the Trump campaign does that.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 2:03 pm to John Barron
The former U.S. Senator (a woman) and now Republican nominee for Governor endorsed Trump as did the current Governor.
He might have a chance there.
He might have a chance there.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 2:10 pm to John Barron
Are these absentee votes? NH doesn't have EV.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 2:11 pm to Figgy
in 2016, right around the election, Republicans were ahead of Democrats by roughly 20,000 in voter registration, and Independents were about 100,000 above Republicans.
Around the 2020 election Democrats led Republicans by about 14,000 and Independents led Democrats by about 90,000
Latest numbers show Republicans up 40,000 over Democrats and Independents up 10,000 on Republicans. But there will be a big spike come election day due to their same-day registration
LINK
Around the 2020 election Democrats led Republicans by about 14,000 and Independents led Democrats by about 90,000
Latest numbers show Republicans up 40,000 over Democrats and Independents up 10,000 on Republicans. But there will be a big spike come election day due to their same-day registration
LINK
Posted on 10/24/24 at 2:12 pm to Riverside
quote:
Trump should send RFK up there to campaign for him
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