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Message
September CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, ABOVE expectations of 2.3%.
Posted on 10/10/24 at 7:36 am
Posted on 10/10/24 at 7:36 am
September CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, ABOVE expectations of 2.3%.
Core CPI inflation RISES to 3.3%, above expectations of 3.2%.
For the first time since March 2023, Core CPI inflation is officially back on the rise.
Core CPI inflation RISES to 3.3%, above expectations of 3.2%.
For the first time since March 2023, Core CPI inflation is officially back on the rise.
3
Posted on 10/10/24 at 8:22 am to boomtown143
Inflation has been under control for a little bit now overall, the issue for most is having their wages catch up to the massive increase overall form the last 3 years. Cumulative inflation going by what I would call is a "conservative" amount for most people in the CPI has been roughly 20% from end of 2020 to now. Very few people are making 20% more then to now by comparison.
Inflation has hit people A LOT harder if they bought a house in the last 2 years due to the increase in prices and interest rates. Your "core inflation" could be much, much higher than 20% over the last 3.5 years because of just that. Then if you carry variable rate debt, well, that also went up quite a lot in some cases due to rate increases. Things like HELOCs, etc...
Inflation has hit people A LOT harder if they bought a house in the last 2 years due to the increase in prices and interest rates. Your "core inflation" could be much, much higher than 20% over the last 3.5 years because of just that. Then if you carry variable rate debt, well, that also went up quite a lot in some cases due to rate increases. Things like HELOCs, etc...
Posted on 10/10/24 at 9:23 am to Art Blakey
quote:
According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 33% over the last 2 years and 11% over the last 5 years...
Cue the Ray Liotta Goodfellas laugh!
Posted on 10/10/24 at 9:36 am to Walter White Jr
quote:
According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 33% over the last 2 years and 11% over the last 5 years...
Cue the Ray Liotta Goodfellas laugh!
Holy crap. Yes, if you don't have a job it's very cheap, it's "FREE."
Posted on 10/10/24 at 9:58 am to boomtown143
The headlines are:
-MoM Core inflation increased by 0.3% versus the consensus forecast of 0.2%
-MoM overall inflation increased 0.2% versus the consensus forecast of 0.1%
-YoY Core increased by 3.3% versus the consensus forecast of 3.2%
-YoY overall inflation Year-Over-Year increased 2.4% versus the consensus forecast of 2.3%
In other words, it appears that inflation's drop has slowed a bit more than expected, with Core actually increasing.
Along with this, what's being overshadowed by CPI news is that Initial Jobless Claims spiked by 33k last week (that's a big jump for a single week).
-MoM Core inflation increased by 0.3% versus the consensus forecast of 0.2%
-MoM overall inflation increased 0.2% versus the consensus forecast of 0.1%
-YoY Core increased by 3.3% versus the consensus forecast of 3.2%
-YoY overall inflation Year-Over-Year increased 2.4% versus the consensus forecast of 2.3%
In other words, it appears that inflation's drop has slowed a bit more than expected, with Core actually increasing.
Along with this, what's being overshadowed by CPI news is that Initial Jobless Claims spiked by 33k last week (that's a big jump for a single week).
This post was edited on 10/10/24 at 10:06 am
Posted on 10/10/24 at 10:11 am to Bard
If shelter was reported correctly this number would be way low
Everything besides shelter and MV insurance stayed the same
Jobless claims up big biggest since 23
We will keep getting our cuts thankfully
Everything besides shelter and MV insurance stayed the same
Jobless claims up big biggest since 23
We will keep getting our cuts thankfully
Posted on 10/10/24 at 11:27 am to SDVTiger
quote:
If shelter was reported correctly this number would be way low
I don't know about "way low", but I don't doubt it would be lower. OER came about as an attempt to smooth the fluctuations of housing numbers because BLS hates wild swings. In other words, they sacrifice accuracy for optics.
It's a horrible skewing of housing and how anyone at BLS who considers themselves any sort of data analyst could accept the double-dipping in rent to cover home values is beyond me.
quote:
Jobless claims up big biggest since 23
Yep, the news on the spike in initial claims isn't getting much traction due to CPI. The bigger point on that is whether it will transition over to continued claims (those have moved up only in an excruciatingly slow manner).
Posted on 10/10/24 at 12:54 pm to boomtown143
quote:
For the first time since March 2023, Core CPI inflation is officially back on the rise.
If I'm looking at the data correctly, it went from 3.27 in August to 3.26 in September. Splitting hairs, but it technically fell. Feb to March was 3.16 to 3.48. Fred Chart
As with most things, it's never a straight line up or down. One data point is simply one data point. Two form a line. Three form a trend.
Posted on 10/10/24 at 3:11 pm to Bard
quote:
Yep, the news on the spike in initial claims isn't getting much traction due to CPI
Bonds are up so again you are wrong
quote:
don't know about "way low", but I don't doubt it would be lower
Its over stated by about 1.85% so yeah again with you
This post was edited on 10/10/24 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 10/10/24 at 5:12 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Bonds are up so again you are wrong
I wasn't talking about bonds, I was talking about that it wasn't getting the news coverage of CPI which is why I specifically said "the news on the spike isn't getting much traction".
It's cute how you still feel the need to prove yourself to me by getting worked up over any post I make. It's like I'm your dad and you're the rebellious kid who has to try to prove you aren't still a child by trying to start an argument even when we agree on something.
quote:
Its over stated by about 1.85%
Show your math, son.
Posted on 10/10/24 at 5:43 pm to Billy Blanks
quote:I can’t actually find this chart, but CPI for medical care is up over those time periods.
Holy crap. Yes, if you don't have a job it's very cheap, it's "FREE."
In addition, I believe this is one of the reasons PCE is preferred is because it doesn’t handle the complexity of medical costs well.
Posted on 10/10/24 at 6:06 pm to Bard
quote:
I was talking about that it wasn't getting the news coverage of CPI which is why I specifically said "the news on the spike isn't getting much traction".
So you are just a headline chart guy
Shelter was at 5.2 finally lowered to 4.85
quote:
Rent growth
In August 2024, asking rents increased 3.4% compared to the same time in 2023, according to Zillow.
Zillow says 3.4 many others say 3.0 so thats the 1.8%
Corelogic is 3.2
Apartment List is 3.1
Now we see in the jobs report that 231k of them were 16-19yrs
Yuge job report
This post was edited on 10/10/24 at 6:34 pm
Posted on 10/10/24 at 10:41 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Now we see in the jobs report that 231k of them were 16-19yrs
That’s not how the jobs report works…
Posted on 10/11/24 at 6:29 am to slackster
How does it work
Please enlighten us
Please enlighten us
Posted on 10/11/24 at 6:44 am to SDVTiger
The household survey and the establishment survey aren’t the same thing. Obviously you don’t understand that.
In the household survey, 16-19 year olds decreased jobs by 370k, but were up 156k when seasonally adjusted. Overall household survey said jobs were up 646k, or 441k when seasonally adjusted. That means people 20+ had jobs increase 1,016k on the raw data and 285k when seasonally adjusted.
And none of those numbers directly relate to the BLS establishment survey from employers that said jobs increased 254,000.
In the household survey, 16-19 year olds decreased jobs by 370k, but were up 156k when seasonally adjusted. Overall household survey said jobs were up 646k, or 441k when seasonally adjusted. That means people 20+ had jobs increase 1,016k on the raw data and 285k when seasonally adjusted.
And none of those numbers directly relate to the BLS establishment survey from employers that said jobs increased 254,000.
Posted on 10/11/24 at 7:02 am to slackster
quote:
The household survey and the establishment survey aren’t the same thing. Obviously you don’t understand that.
I understand it very well
The point is the jobs report wasnt strong. The fed said this
Posted on 10/11/24 at 8:12 am to SDVTiger
quote:
So you are just a headline chart guy
No, it's just called "paying attention". It's possible to see both the forest and the trees. quote:
Zillow says 3.4 many others say 3.0 so thats the 1.8%
Corelogic is 3.2
Apartment List is 3.1
Soooo, you're doing what? Taking the estimates from a few site, averaging them out (to get 3%) then simply subtracting that from what BLS reported as the Shelter entry?
Posted on 10/11/24 at 8:15 am to Bard
quote:
No, it's just called "paying attention".
Zero % chance of a .5 cut but you are paying attention
quote:
Soooo, you're doing what?
Using real time numbers unlike CPI that is using the survey
Yeah you really pay attention and know what you are talking about
Posted on 10/11/24 at 9:05 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Zero % chance of a .5 cut but you are paying attention
The cut was to lower federal debt servicing cost, not based on how inflation nor unemployment is performing. You would know that, if you paid attention son.
quote:
Yeah you really pay attention and know what you are talking about
So defensive merely because I asked how you were achieving your 1.85% answer. To that point, you still haven't shown your math. Heck, you haven't even stated what that "over stated by about 1.85% lower" represents. What, exactly, are you stating should be 1.85% lower: OER, the entire Shelter category or overall CPI?
You then trot out a range of estimates from 3%-3.4% to back your claim that something is "over stated by about 1.85%" but you never make the connection of how you get from 3%-3.4% (much less what it represents).
Did you purposely not answer the question because you don't know the answer or because you lost focus in your zeal to try to prove to daddy that you're a big boy now?
This post was edited on 10/11/24 at 9:06 am
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