Started By
Message

Goldman: revision to nonfarm payrolls will be as large as 600k-1mn

Posted on 8/19/24 at 6:32 pm
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 6:32 pm


quote:

Goldman Sachs analysts cautioned that the upcoming benchmark revision to U.S. nonfarm payrolls is likely to overstate the weakness in the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to announce a significant downward revision next week, potentially lowering payroll growth by 600,000 to 1 million jobs for the year ending in March 2024.

However, Goldman Sachs argues that this revision could be misleading.

According to the investment bank's analysts, the revision is expected to lower monthly payroll growth from 250,000 to approximately 165,000 200,000, but this adjustment may be exaggerated.

The analysts suggest that the “true” pace of job growth during this period is likely closer to 200,000-240,000 per month. They attribute this discrepancy to two main factors.


https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/benchmark-payrolls-revision-likely-to-overstate-weakness-of-jobs-market-goldman-sachs-432SI-3577797
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
130719 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 6:34 pm to
Your govt isn't good at guessing
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
11021 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 6:35 pm to
So basically none of these government figures can be believed. Not GDP, not inflation. None of it.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90110 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

First, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is used for the revision, largely excludes unauthorized immigrants. Goldman Sachs believes this could lead to an erroneous downward revision of 300,000-500,000 jobs, as unauthorized immigrants have significantly contributed to employment growth. Second, Goldman Sachs explains that the QCEW itself has consistently been revised upwards in recent years. Since 2019, the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision has been below the final revision by an average of 100,000 jobs. "Our earlier analysis suggests that benchmarking to the QCEW could erroneously revise 300-500k working unauthorized immigrants out of payroll growth over the year ending in March 2024," they write. Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming benchmark revision may paint an unduly negative picture of the labor market, overstating the degree of weakness in job growth over the past year.


No biggie.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90110 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

So basically none of these government figures can be believed. Not GDP, not inflation. None of it.


That’s your prerogative, but I don’t draw that conclusion.

They’re data points than can paint a picture in the aggregate. I’d never make a big deal about any individual report unless you’re just trying to troll the board.
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
11021 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

No biggie.


This may not even happen. If that is the case then maybe it is no biggie. But if it does, then yeah it is a biggie.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90110 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 7:07 pm to
quote:

This may not even happen. If that is the case then maybe it is no biggie. But if it does, then yeah it is a biggie.


It’s an adjustment based on another government survey that you don’t trust already.

ETA: to take it a step further, you’re the guy that’s pointed out more than most the growth of immigrant jobs in the surveys. This is basically a check and balance report that doesn’t account for illegal immigrants, so is it really a big deal?
This post was edited on 8/19/24 at 7:10 pm
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
88266 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 7:22 pm to
Negative job numbers

Give us the 1% cut now
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
11021 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

Give us the 1% cut now


Give us the 8% inflation is what you’re really saying.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
88266 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 7:36 pm to
quote:

Give us the 8% inflation is what you’re really saying.


How would a 1% cut give is 8% inflation? Specifically

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90110 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 7:59 pm to
quote:

Negative job numbers


Can you read?
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
81736 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 8:28 pm to
The government lies/misleads so fricking much at this point
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
88266 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 8:35 pm to
quote:

Can you read?


Yeah i can. You are an idiot so never forget

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90110 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 8:47 pm to
quote:

The government lies/misleads so fricking much at this point


Probably, but this is one government report that’s flawed auditing another government report that’s flawed. It’s a circular argument at this point.



It would be one thing if ADP was way off or something, but they’re very correlated. This indexed to 8/1/14 as 100, and keep in mind one is private and one includes government jobs.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90110 posts
Posted on 8/19/24 at 8:47 pm to
Your negative jobs comment implies you can’t read, so it was worth double checking.

ETA: for those who also struggle, BLS jobs for year ending in March 24 was 2,900,000. Their survey that lags around 5 months doesn’t capture illegal immigrants, among other flaws, and as a result may adjust the numbers in the rear view mirror for that year by 600k-1mm jobs.
This post was edited on 8/19/24 at 8:54 pm
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
55789 posts
Posted on 8/20/24 at 5:59 am to
To add to this, bankruptcy filings continue to rise.
Posted by Art Blakey
Member since Aug 2023
286 posts
Posted on 8/20/24 at 10:20 am to
quote:

Your govt isn't good at guessing


They don't guess. They manipulate inputs to achieve desired results. With employment, the primary mechanism is the birth/death model line item added to the business survey. Two years ago large discrepancies began appearing between the business and household surveys. The bulk of the delta could be found in the birth/death line item. The BLS estimates the amount of jobs gained/lost through new business creation and/or business destruction based on the previous year's data. You don't need an economics degree to understand how ridiculous this is during a transition from a free money/stimulus regime to a tightening regime of rising rates and QT.

Headline numbers achieve desired results and later revisions more accurately capture reality with less fanfare. The labor data manipulation is more subtle than CPI but no less obvious if you peel the onion down a layer or two. Re: CPI, if you swap mortgage payments (with current rates/prices) for the laughably stupid owners equivalent rent you will get a number that more accurately represents what we all know--the past few years inflation wave has been as severe as any wave in the last 80 years.

The amount of manipulation in the reported numbers is directly correlated with the fiscal situation of the govt, which is increasingly dire, and not likely to improve any time soon. You would be wise to expect manipulation to increase from here. Ferguson's Law was triggered earlier this year which states that any empire which spends more on interest than defense won't be an empire for much longer. In July, true US interest expense, defined as entitlement paygos plus debt service was greater than tax receipts. This is untenable for any govt and the primary motivation for September's rate cut regardless of what BS comes out of Powell's mouth.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
90110 posts
Posted on 8/20/24 at 12:25 pm to
How does the government manipulate the ADP numbers? The only government influence on those numbers that I can find is that ADP extrapolates their data to match the types of business that exist across the country, but nothing else.

Otherwise I appreciate your post and the information in it.
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 8/20/24 at 2:36 pm to
It's all real!!!

Everything the government tells us!

EVERYTHING
This post was edited on 8/20/24 at 2:37 pm
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
38831 posts
Posted on 8/20/24 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

It's all real!!! Everything the government tells us! EVERYTHING


When we getting the emergency Fed meeting?
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 2Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on X, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookXInstagram