Goldman: revision to nonfarm payrolls will be as large as 600k-1mn

Your govt isn't good at guessing

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First, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is used for the revision, largely excludes unauthorized immigrants. Goldman Sachs believes this could lead to an erroneous downward revision of 300,000-500,000 jobs, as unauthorized immigrants have significantly contributed to employment growth. Second, Goldman Sachs explains that the QCEW itself has consistently been revised upwards in recent years. Since 2019, the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision has been below the final revision by an average of 100,000 jobs. "Our earlier analysis suggests that benchmarking to the QCEW could erroneously revise 300-500k working unauthorized immigrants out of payroll growth over the year ending in March 2024," they write. Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming benchmark revision may paint an unduly negative picture of the labor market, overstating the degree of weakness in job growth over the past year.

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No biggie.

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No biggie.

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This may not even happen. If that is the case then maybe it is no biggie. But if it does, then yeah it is a biggie.

Negative job numbers

Give us the 1% cut now

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Give us the 8% inflation is what you’re really saying.

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How would a 1% cut give is 8% inflation? Specifically

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Negative job numbers

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Can you read?

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Can you read?

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Yeah i can. You are an idiot so never forget

Your negative jobs comment implies you can’t read, so it was worth double checking.

ETA: for those who also struggle, BLS jobs for year ending in March 24 was 2,900,000. Their survey that lags around 5 months doesn’t capture illegal immigrants, among other flaws, and as a result may adjust the numbers in the rear view mirror for that year by 600k-1mm jobs.

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Your govt isn't good at guessing

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They don't guess. They manipulate inputs to achieve desired results. With employment, the primary mechanism is the birth/death model line item added to the business survey. Two years ago large discrepancies began appearing between the business and household surveys. The bulk of the delta could be found in the birth/death line item. The BLS estimates the amount of jobs gained/lost through new business creation and/or business destruction based on the previous year's data. You don't need an economics degree to understand how ridiculous this is during a transition from a free money/stimulus regime to a tightening regime of rising rates and QT.

Headline numbers achieve desired results and later revisions more accurately capture reality with less fanfare. The labor data manipulation is more subtle than CPI but no less obvious if you peel the onion down a layer or two. Re: CPI, if you swap mortgage payments (with current rates/prices) for the laughably stupid owners equivalent rent you will get a number that more accurately represents what we all know--the past few years inflation wave has been as severe as any wave in the last 80 years.

The amount of manipulation in the reported numbers is directly correlated with the fiscal situation of the govt, which is increasingly dire, and not likely to improve any time soon. You would be wise to expect manipulation to increase from here. Ferguson's Law was triggered earlier this year which states that any empire which spends more on interest than defense won't be an empire for much longer. In July, true US interest expense, defined as entitlement paygos plus debt service was greater than tax receipts. This is untenable for any govt and the primary motivation for September's rate cut regardless of what BS comes out of Powell's mouth.

It's all real!!!

Everything the government tells us!

EVERYTHING