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One Man's View of the Game

Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:22 pm
Posted by ROPO
Member since Jul 2016
3206 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:22 pm
I did a little studying on the Trojans to try to have an informed view of the game. LSU is currently a 6.5 point favorite. Both teams struggled last season on defense and brought in new DCs. Both are replacing Heisman winning QBs. Ultimately I trust Brian Kelly and his staff over Lincoln Riley and think the elite LSU offensive line will be the difference in this game. But I think it will be closer than many on this site are expecting and I think Vegas has the line exactly right at 6.5. Tigers 41, Trojans 35.

Here's how I see the teams in comparison.

Quarterback - PUSH

Both Nussmeier and Miller Moss were 4 star QBs in the Class of 2021. Moss was rated just ahead of Nussmeier on the 247 rankings and on the composite, but it was razor close. Both have sat while watching the guy in front of them win a Heisman and get drafted 1-2 in the NFL draft. Even their stats last season were comparable. Nuss was 48 for 78 (61.5%), for 591 yards, with 4 TDs and 1 INT. Moss was 46 for 65 (70.7%), for 681 yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT. Both finally got to take the reigns in the bowl game and performed extraordinarily well. Nuss went 31 for 45 for 395 yards and 3 TDs in a ReliaQuest Bowl win over Wisconsin. Moss went 23 for 33 for 372 yards and 6 TDs in a Holiday Bowl win over Louisville. While Tiger fans love the Nuss Bus (and gun to my head I take our guy), by any objective measure (and any unbiased subjective measures) this is an absolute push. It will be extremely interesting to see if each of these guys can continue their momentum from backup to NFL prospect on September 1.

Running Backs – PUSH

Again, there is very little separating these teams at the running back position. Both have a steady senior (Josh Williams, 55/284/5.2/5TDs ; Wood Marks 121/573/4.7/2 TDs) and a budding second year potential breakout star (Kaleb Jackson, 31/165/5.3/4 TDs and Quinten Joyner, 18/133/6.9/1 TD). Joyner is more of a speed back and we all know Kaleb is a wrecking ball. Just hard to see there being much difference here between the two squads.

Wide Receiver – PUSH

Keeping with a theme here. This is REALLY CLOSE. USC arguably has more talent with two former 5 Stars in Zachariah Branch and Duce Robinson, not to mention Makai Lemon who was a top 50 player that just missed a 5th star. Ja’Kobe Lane is another highly rated receiver coming back. All four played last season. But it's not like they were sitting behind Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. They were sitting behind two 7th rounders. LSU has more production coming back, but aside from Kyren Lacey, the production really comes from guys at former, lesser schools (CJ Daniels and Zavion Thomas). I’m admittedly not as high on the LSU receiving corp as many because only Chris Hilton to me has elite upside. But I can’t in good conscious just give the edge to the Trojans because they have higher rated prospects that are in starting role.

Offensive Line – LSU BIG

This is NOT close. LSU has bookend first round picks at OT. USC’s LT (Elijah Paige) broke the internet based on a camera angle despite being only an inch taller than Will Campbell and half as skilled. Paige is their best prospect by far but doesn’t hold a candle to either Will Campbell or Emery Jones. The only spot on the line where USC is better than LSU is center. Jonah Monheim is a likely second round pick in next spring’s draft. DJ Chester is highly regarded but doesn’t have Monheim’s experience. If I were ranking the four starting OGs in this game, I would go Dellinger, USC’s Emmanuel Pregnon, Frazier, then USC’s Alani Noa. Pregnon is pretty good. He was vastly underrated in high school (2 Star) and started at Wyoming before transferring to Southern Cal. He’s a day three prospect at guard next spring. But as a tandem, LSU guards are better. Better guards, slightly worse at center but vastly superior at OT means this unit is in favor of LSU big time.
Posted by ROPO
Member since Jul 2016
3206 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:22 pm to
Defensive Line – USC

USC’s line starts with Bear Alexander. He’s the best defensive lineman in this game and is probably a second rounder next spring who could play his way into the first round this fall. The other DT is Nate Clifton, a transfer from Vanderbilt who had a monster season last year in Nashville, including sacks against Georgia, Ole Miss and Auburn. Anthony Lucas, the former Texas A&M 5 star, will line up at DE. He’s been a disappointment thus far and been more of a JAG but has all of the measurables to be a problem. Jamil Muhammad will be the main edge rusher and is going into his sixth year of college football. In contrast, I really hope Da’Shawn Womack, Gabe Reliford and Dominick McKinley can all be diaper dandies because the starting four of Savion Jones, Gio Paez, Jacobian Guillory and Bradyn Swinson is not striking fear in anyone. Hope springs eternal and reports from camp have been glowing, but it’s hard to forget 2023. If our DL cannot get pressure, we cannot expect the secondary (which is largely the same as 2023) to be much better.

Linebackers – LSU BIG

The Trojans LB corp is their biggest weakness. Eric Gentry is an athletic prospect but is weirdly sized at 6-6, 215. Easton Mascarenas-Arnold and Mason Cobb are older transfers from Oregon State and Oklahoma State that Lincoln Riley brought in to plug the leaks. LSU’s linebacker corp on the other hand is its strength. First round pick Harold Perkins, Jr. mans the Will while Greg Penn is steady eddie at the Mike. The Weeks brothers will also be on the field plenty making this group deep and talented for LSU.

Secondary – USC

USC’s secondary has talent, but a lot of them are transfers and we all know that communication breakdowns can be fatal to a secondary. Free safety Kamari Ramsey transferred in from crosstown rival UCLA where last season he had 40 tackles, 4 PBUs and 1 interception. He’s presently viewed as a day 2 NFL prospect. Jaylin Smith is a slot corner or safety and very versatile with 21 games of experience over the past two seasons. Jacobe Covington is their boundary corner and may be their best DB overall but has battled injuries. That said, he’s a little undersized and could struggle against LSU’s WRs. He was USC’s highest rated defensive player by Pro Football Focus last season with a mark of 83.4. John Humphrey is another transfer from UCLA who started 19 games over the past two seasons. Another transfer corner is DeCarlos Nicholson who transferred in from Mississippi State. With LSU’s secondary, we just don’t know. It was so bad last year it’s hard to give credence to the positive practice reports. We don’t even yet know who will be the starters at corner (although that’s because there is a spirited competition ongoing, not because there are no bodies). Hopefully between Stamps, Woodland, JK Johnson, Alexander (if healthy) and Toviano, we can have two guys step up. We do know that Major Burns and Sage Ryan will be at the Star and the slot respectively. They have been disappointing, especially Ryan the former 5 star. We all pray for a light bulb to go off in their final year. Jardin Gilbert will be the free safety. He is versatile and athletic, but has some tackling issues and appears indecisive at times.

X-Factor: USC’s defense on paper should be much improved. But it will rely heavily on transfers who have not played together before, which could be problematic in game one.

Special Teams – USC

Zachariah Branch is an elite return man. Zavion Thomas is close but not at the same level. LSU punting is still unresolved.

Conclusion

Ultimately it is less about how the units compare versus how they compete with their opposite counterparts. While USC has a decent defensive line, LSU’s offensive line will handle them. LSU should be able to run the ball well and exploit a secondary and linebacking corp that are playing together for the first time.
On the flip side, while LSU’s DL is not elite, USC’s offensive line is not scary. This could be a huge reintroduction of Harold Perkins to the casuals. The DBs still scare me and I do worry about Branch returning a kick on special teams. But adding it all up, I think LSU wins it by a TD in a shootout.
This post was edited on 8/14/24 at 6:24 pm
Posted by Safety Blitz
The Backfield
Member since May 2022
2800 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:36 pm to
My view of the game is…I ain’t ever reading all that, but excited and Geaux Tigers!
Posted by fastlane
Member since Jul 2014
3401 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:38 pm to
Good work and thanks for the details.

But this game won’t come down to whose positions groups are best. Secondaries don’t play secondaries.

It will come down to the matchups and we just have the serious advantage in those key position matchups. Their entire defense is transfers and new. That matches up well with our experienced offense. The online is garbage and that matches up with our unproven but extremely talent defensive front 7.
Posted by Shooter
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2007
7690 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:39 pm to
You sound like a USC homer!
Posted by Peterson Was In
Member since Sep 2021
353 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:40 pm to
quote:

LSU punting is still unresolved.


I still find myself in the "let's simply not field a returner" camp, especially in season openers.
Posted by Sampson
Drusilla and Jefferson
Member since Mar 2012
24948 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:42 pm to
Nice breakdown but LSU wins by 2 TDs
Posted by ROPO
Member since Jul 2016
3206 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:44 pm to
quote:

But this game won’t come down to whose positions groups are best. Secondaries don’t play secondaries.


Yes, I acknowledge that at the end. And I know it's TLDR!
Posted by saturncube21
Member since Nov 2015
9344 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 6:58 pm to
Fair analysis
Posted by hophead
Member since Nov 2007
1989 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 7:38 pm to
Need BK to break the game 1 woes that we have seen
Posted by Sevensblue
Las Vegas
Member since Apr 2022
1750 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 7:51 pm to
Posted by lsusteve1
Member since Dec 2004
44036 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 7:57 pm to
Only slightly disagree with RB

Slight edge LSU
Posted by Datsmoneydude
Member since Jun 2021
2422 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 8:17 pm to
USC has sucked on defense since Pete Carrol went to Seattle
Posted by CharlestonTiger
Summerville, SC
Member since Nov 2019
628 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:23 pm to
quote:

our unproven but extremely talent defensive front 7.


Pump the brakes...our front 7 is not "extremely talented"....let's go with "serviceable".
Posted by hedgehog
Prairieville
Member since Oct 2006
2404 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:55 pm to
Experienced offense? LSU lost 90% of its offense from last year.
Posted by chadr07
Pineville, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
10372 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 10:58 pm to
Idk I feel like LSU will have one of the most stacked WR groups in the country this year. Lacy, Hilton, Zavion, and Daniels will be hell for anybody to defend. I know it may be a little bias but I find it hard not to go with LSU with the WRs.
Posted by MasterAbe1
Member since Oct 2016
5829 posts
Posted on 8/14/24 at 11:04 pm to
I agree on receivers. I think most of that room has elite upside, and theyre all different types of receivers (I personally think Daniels is the one who could turn into an X factor early on)
Posted by SOL2
Dallas burbs
Member since Jan 2020
6155 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 7:03 am to
Finebaum says it's LSU bigtime
Posted by Lark225
Member since Mar 2019
1454 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 7:19 am to
Lsu will control this game in the 2nd half with the oline and running the football....lsu talent level supercedes usc in the 3 yrs both have been at their respective schools. Lincoln Riley didn't want to play this game and this game is a must win for cbk given he is 0-2 in openers. Expect lsu to destroy usc. This team ain't fricking around this year I promise you that
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
61200 posts
Posted on 8/15/24 at 8:22 am to
quote:

Experienced offense? LSU lost 90% of its offense from last year.


I know you’re talking about offensive production—and you’re right, we’re replacing our Heisman winning QB who also lead the team in rushing, our top 2 WRs who were both 1st Round NFL picks, and even our 2nd leading rusher and most productive RB in Diggs. And we lost our OC, who oversaw the best offense in college football. Certainly sounds like a daunting task to overcome.

However, we return 4 of our 5 OL and TE. But they’re not just “returning,” they’re returning for their 3rd straight season of starting together (Dellinger and Frazier are both 4-year starters, too), and the importance of that can’t be understated. 5 of the 6 guys who work together as a unit more than any other position group on the field, who dictate what happens at the snap of every ball, will be doing it together for a 3rd straight season. I honestly can’t remember that ever happening here. Not since I’ve been paying attention, at least.

And they’re not “just guys,” they’re all draftable, headlined by the bookend tackles, who could both wind up being 1st round picks in the Spring, with Will probably being a top 5-10 pick. And the only newcomer to the group—Chester at Center—is a big upgrade physically over Turner. It remains to be seen how he handles the snaps and the calls (maybe the 2 most important things any OL does), but he played a good bit last year for a true freshman, especially in the bowl game against Wisconsin, and I can’t imagine he’d still be at Center if he was having any issues snapping the ball. As far as the calls, he’ll be flanked by 2 4-year starters at LG and RG to help him out.

Lacy started last year, too, and Josh Williams has played enough the last 2 years to be considered a starter. So, while I understand your point about how much production we lost, we are returning 7 starters. We’ll see how long it takes for the system to work the kinks out and how quickly everybody can get on the same page. I think that’s where having a dominant OL will prove to be most advantageous.
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