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Does Kennedy help or hurt Trump?

Posted on 7/29/24 at 8:49 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
48378 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 8:49 am
I'm starting to lean towards him hurting Trump now that Biden is out of the race.

I don't see many democrats not voting for Kamala at this point because their biggest demotivator was a vegetable running on the democrat ticket. Now that he's out of the way, they have all the motivation in the world to vote Kamala. Maybe some of them who hate her will stay home but I think she motivates more than demotivates.

When Biden was still in the race, I thought Kennedy helped Trump by potentially and likely taking votes from Biden that just couldn't go to Trump but now I think he has to drop out (and I hope the rumors of that are true).

Look at the polls -- quite a few of them that include RFK Jr bring the race closer than those that don't include him.

Trump has got to find a way to get RFK out of the race.
Posted by St Augustine
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
70476 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 8:51 am to
I think it hurts him a bit. I also think it hurts Kamala a little as well. Any D that was considering him over Biden is at least putting some thought into the process. Hopefully they see that Kamala is also a total dumbass.

This election is going to be close.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
48378 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 8:53 am to
quote:

This election is going to be close.

Very close
Posted by TJack
BR
Member since Dec 2018
3059 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 9:00 am to
If the democrats can point to Kennedy as hurting Trump or at least appear to be hurting Trump, they will use it. Regardless of its reality.
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 9:01 am
Posted by shinerfan
Duckworld(Earth-616)
Member since Sep 2009
27830 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 9:05 am to
They can no longer hide Kamala. We'll see how long the newness bump lasts now that she's front and center. Like Hillary Milhouse Clinton Kamala has an Omega-level unlikeability factor.

And the most reliable indicator of who RFKjr is hurting the most lies in the MSM attitude towards him. If they really thought he was hurting Trump they would be singing his praises day and night. Maybe there's been a slight shift in that direction but only slight. A few months ago their coverage made it clear that they thought he was hurting Biden no matter how much they claimed otherwise. But now they're still trying to figure it out. It'll be interesting to see how they cover him here in the home stretch.
Posted by TopWaterTiger
Lake Charles, LA
Member since May 2006
11954 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 9:39 am to
I thought it hurt Trump even before Biden dropped out. Now it really hurts him.
Posted by Rendlo
Member since Jun 2024
593 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 9:45 am to
I believe it hurts way more than helps. Folks that like RFK would be more prone to lean right without him imo.
Posted by riccoar
Arkansas
Member since Mar 2006
4577 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 9:45 am to
If anything, Kennedy hurts Kamala because he's a better Democratic option.
Posted by FLTech
Member since Sep 2017
24763 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 9:46 am to
I think it helps him ONLY if RFK campaigns for Trump and. Evokes Pro Trump

If he drops out and endorsers Trump like reports are saying but he doesn’t really do anything to help Trump then it will be a waste
Posted by jmarto1
Houma, LA/ Las Vegas, NV
Member since Mar 2008
37740 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 9:55 am to
Trump could win if he gets RFK and Tulsi to support. He could bash the looney left while saying he is wanting to work with the moderate and sane left
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
48378 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:06 am to
quote:

They can no longer hide Kamala. We'll see how long the newness bump lasts now that she's front and center.

You're giving retarded democrats too much credit, thinking they will start thinking for themselves. Minority voters see her as a minority and will base their vote solely on that and that alone. Whatever bump she receives after the convention is going to be where she stays, in my opinion. That's because it will come from a few undecideds. Nobody is going to switch their vote from Trump to Harris and those left in the middle will either not vote or likely vote for Trump. If they're undecided by then, they aren't happy with the way things are going now.

But to assume that eventually Kamala's support will fade is ignoring the fact of today's politics and today's politics is based on popularity and minority status factors. She aint losing support, she'll gain a tad bit from the convention and we have to hope and pray for undecideds to break Trump's way otherwise we're looking at a Harris presidency in my opinion.
Posted by shinerfan
Duckworld(Earth-616)
Member since Sep 2009
27830 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:09 am to
quote:

If he drops out and endorsers Trump like reports are saying



Where have you seen this? (Not trying to be a smartass but I haven't seen this and I'd love for it to be true.)


Posted by crotiger0307
Utah
Member since Jan 2018
840 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:11 am to
Does anybody really think people who were not voting Trump regardless but were on the fence between Biden and RFK are going to vote Kamala now instead of RFK??

To me it’s pretty obvious RFK voters are the self righteous centrist people who see Trump as “far right” and would NEVER vote Trump.. they would prefer to keep the status quo, not radically shift the American political spectrum by voting for far left Harris, thus really only taking votes away from one of the candidates (not the one they were never going to vote for).
Posted by TDTOM
Member since Jan 2021
24275 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:14 am to
I think if he drops out those people will simply not vote.
Posted by Indefatigable
Member since Jan 2019
35479 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:14 am to
I think RFK is hurting him now. The liberal vote that was resisting Biden will support Harris, leaving the never Trump vote as the only people supporting RFK.

I don't think RFK dropping out or endorsing Trump would get Trump those votes either. Those people are protest voting.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
48378 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:16 am to
quote:

To me it’s pretty obvious RFK voters are the self righteous centrist people who see Trump as “far right” and would NEVER vote Trump.. they would prefer to keep the status quo, not radically shift the American political spectrum by voting for far left Harris, thus really only taking votes away from one of the candidates (not the one they were never going to vote for).

I don't know, man. I think it's important to not apply traditional voter behavior to any election involving Trump now.
Posted by LegalEazyE
Madison, Wisconsin
Member since Nov 2023
6292 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:28 am to
Honestly, I think it can go either way. Him staying in took more votes away from Kamala IMO. Him dropping out I think keeps a lot of his voters home, swings some votes to Trump and gives some votes to her... but I think the votes that go to her are significantly less than the no votes or write-in votes and Trump votes. I know lifelong Democrats that have come around on the Biden Admin, Kamala etc. Months ago they were already saying they were voting RFK Jr. After the debate, assassination attempt, the hiding of Biden's cognitive decline from the public, and the blatant gaslighting from the media on Kamala the last couple weeks, some have said they would vote Trump this election.
Posted by crotiger0307
Utah
Member since Jan 2018
840 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:29 am to
I agree, and I also believe that short of an (extremely likely) abysmal debate performance which will turn off even more people to the idea of a Harris presidency there are very few true “undecideds” left for Trump to flip. They just won’t vote or will vote RFK imo.

People who are voting Trump know by now they’re voting Trump, from this point out the only real progression to make is for them to come out and openly admit it.
Posted by TN Tygah
Member since Nov 2023
7837 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:31 am to
quote:

I thought it hurt Trump even before Biden dropped out. Now it really hurts him.


In principle you would think he’d hurt Trump, but every Biden / Trump poll showed RFK helping Trump. Every single one of them.
Posted by TN Tygah
Member since Nov 2023
7837 posts
Posted on 7/29/24 at 10:36 am to
quote:

I think it helps him ONLY if RFK campaigns for Trump and. Evokes Pro Trump



This is not true. It will help Trump if Kennedy campaigns against the Democrats, which he is doing. If Kennedy campaigns for Trump it may hurt him. Trump is still a really, really relatively unpopular candidate even among people who are voting for him in November.

When Biden was in the race there was no question that RFK helped Trump. I’m not looking at the “principle” or theory of it, I’m looking at the actual results. The polls shifted towards Trump when RFK was counted in every single instance, before Kamala.

What we don’t know is how many of those RFK voters were simply just voting against Biden, and how many of those will now shift back over to Kamala. I haven’t seen enough polling to really see a pattern. I’ve only seen one round of polls.
This post was edited on 7/29/24 at 10:37 am
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