re: credit bubble vs house prices

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Wait. Foreclosures, delinquencies and bankruptcies have been on the rise since their post-COVID lows. They are still all relatively low but their rise as we look to be heading into a recessionary (or stagflation) period means they are likely to increase (and increase fast if the consumer debt bubble pops). That means more supply, meaning prices drop. Once inflation is tamed the Fed will begin dropping rates, that's when it will be time to buy.

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The market hasn't made logical sense in some time. Depending on the location the OP is in, it may be as good of time as any to buy. If rates go down, you have the option to refinance, and if he's in a good area, home prices will remain static or keep rising.

At some point you have to be right. I believe there will be a correction, but when is the biggest question. He could be waiting for years. Or days.

quote:

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Foreclosures, delinquencies and bankruptcies have been on the rise since their post-COVID lows

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The article you linked states that 46% of mortgages are equity rich, meaning the value of the home is at least twice what is owed on the home. 2.7% are seriously underwater. I don’t see the correlation between those numbers and your suggestion that OP should wait.

96% of commercial and 97% of residential loans are in good standing. That is strong.

Bankruptcy filings were up 14% in the first quarter, so there is some anecdotal evidence that more are coming, but these are based on YOY filings, which have been low since Covid.

Foreclosures in Q1 were actually down YOY (they were up compared to Q4 2023, but down YOY). Also, WA foreclosures rank very low nationally.

I am not sure this data supports the suggestion to wait.