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Message
First round hit rate by position between 2000-2019
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:19 am
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:19 am
“Hit” defined as signing a 2nd contract
Center- 92%
OT- 59%
OG- 50%
LB- 48%
QB- 46%
EDGE- 44%
DT- 40%
CB- 38%
RB- 38%
S- 34%
TE- 33%
WR-27%
Keep this in mind if you’re excited to sit back at 14 and draft Bowers or Odunze while all the OTs go off the board.
Center- 92%
OT- 59%
OG- 50%
LB- 48%
QB- 46%
EDGE- 44%
DT- 40%
CB- 38%
RB- 38%
S- 34%
TE- 33%
WR-27%
Keep this in mind if you’re excited to sit back at 14 and draft Bowers or Odunze while all the OTs go off the board.
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 9:36 am
9
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:23 am to DBG
Signing a second contract is a pretty lose definition of “hit.”
The 20th-25th ranked left tackles will sign a second contract without issue. Doesn’t mean they’re worth multiple high value picks.
The 20th-25th ranked left tackles will sign a second contract without issue. Doesn’t mean they’re worth multiple high value picks.
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 9:25 am
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:25 am to DBG
quote:
“Hit” defined as signing a 2nd contract
Center- 92%
OT- 59%
OG- 50%
LB- 48%
QB- 46%
EDGE- 44%
DT- 40%
CB- 38%
RB- 38%
S- 34%
TE- 33%
WR-27%
I'm misunderstanding, or there's no way those numbers are right?
Is this signing a 2nd contract with the same team?
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:31 am to moneyg
quote:
Is this signing a 2nd contract with the same team?
Yes, that is all that is required. Put in perspective Peat is considered a hit, but Tunsil is not. And as another poster stated, if you draft someone in the top 10, then resign them to be a back-up player; it is still considered a hit.
Also, the number of players should be factored in here. Center at 92%, how many centers were drafted in the 1st?
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:33 am to St Augustine
I think it’s about the only objective way to measure it. There are variables like injury or retirement, but it gives a pretty good insight into whether a team values a guy to commit long term.
Bottom line is, drafting OL is a way safer bet than any other position.
Bottom line is, drafting OL is a way safer bet than any other position.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:35 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
Also, the number of players should be factored in here. Center at 92%, how many centers were drafted in the 1st?
12 centers, but center isn’t really relevant to the Saints. OT is and there have been 64 first round OTs drafted, which is the 4th most behind EDGE, WR, and CB.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:37 am to DBG
quote:
“Hit” defined as signing a 2nd contract
Bad definition.
quote:
while all the OTs go off the board.
A perfect example of why. OTs get 2nd deals for being average and often playing different positions. The metric doesn't discuss the type of deal.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:38 am to DBG
quote:
I think it’s about the only objective way to measure it.
If this is your stance, then you're arguing there is no objective way to measure it.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:39 am to SlowFlowPro
Yea there really isn’t, unless you want to only include the 4 all pro selections every year. It’s a basic measurement that I believe speaks to the safety of each position.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:44 am to DBG
No you could tie the contract to value, a certain % of the franchise value and/or draft picks. You'd also have to take into account position and starts.
Theoretically, the salary would account for the starts and positions, though, so if you wanted to do it napkin math-style, just tie it to franchise value. Like AAV within 30% of the franchise value for the position where the player was selected, with like 125% of franchise value for guaranteed money. Something like that.
Theoretically, the salary would account for the starts and positions, though, so if you wanted to do it napkin math-style, just tie it to franchise value. Like AAV within 30% of the franchise value for the position where the player was selected, with like 125% of franchise value for guaranteed money. Something like that.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:44 am to DBG
quote:
12 centers, but center isn’t really relevant to the Saints.
That sounds like a lot, almost 1 Center per year. Do you know if it goes off of position they were listed at when they entered the draft, expected position in the league, or actual position they played?
For example, Ruiz was drafted as a Center but has essentially been plugged in at RG since day one. When this list is updated through 2020, would Ruiz count towards the Center hit list, or the OG hit list?
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:44 am to DBG
Vegas has us -700 going OL, next best odds are DL. We are going to get a shot at Latham, Fashanu, Fuaga, or Fautanu. They are all in the same tier. They all have pros and cons but each one would be a great pick for us. I personally like Latham’s ceiling and Fautanu’s athleticism and versatility. Most people like Fashanu because he has the highest LT potential. Fuaga is probably the best all around player but most likely a guard. If we miss out on these 4 (which we won’t), Verse should still be on the board (O/U is currently 19.5). He would be a steal for us.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:56 am to High Life
I think the biggest concern about many on this board is that OL is a glaring need for this team. Does that mean Loomis over spends to jump a few positions to grab "his guy", do the Saints get jumped by a couple of teams resulting in us reaching for an OL just to draft someone at the position. Does this result in another Penning style pick, another Ram style pick, or somewhere in the middle?
Posted on 4/25/24 at 9:57 am to St Augustine
quote:
Signing a second contract is a pretty lose definition of “hit.” The 20th-25th ranked left tackles will sign a second contract without issue. Doesn’t mean they’re worth multiple high value picks.
It is a loose* definition but don’t you want your 1st round pick to have at least a coin flip chance of staying with you after their rookie deal? Lol.
There’s a reason that OL/DL are drafted high every year and there’s a reason they get the big contracts. It’s because large athletic humans are in short supply and high demand. If you want to discredit the data that’s fine. You can also just use common sense.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 10:06 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
Does that mean Loomis over spends to jump a few positions to grab "his guy",
Worst case scenario. We just need to take advantage of what’s given to us. I’d rather trade back than trade up.
quote:
Saints get jumped by a couple of teams resulting in us reaching for an OL just to draft someone at the position. Does this result in another Penning style pick, another Ram style pick
I’m very confident we get one of the top 5 OLs. They’re all great options. I love how everyone was worried about us “settling on an player” but now y’all are worried we are going to get jumped?? How is it “settling” if other teams are willing to cut us off. Lol
Everyone of those guys is graded significantly higher than Penning was
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 10:08 am
Posted on 4/25/24 at 10:08 am to DBG
quote:
I think it’s about the only objective way to measure it. There are variables like injury or retirement, but it gives a pretty good insight into whether a team values a guy to commit long term. Bottom line is, drafting OL is a way safer bet than any other position.
I’m fine with drafting OL. I’m not ok with giving up multiple high picks for one. Hell I’d rather us take two cracks at OL in the first and second. If we panic to get a potentially safer player and give up a 2nd for him and he’s just average or below AND we did that with Penning you’re just nuking your line and other positions.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 10:14 am to DBG
The only draft law that exists is no RB in RD1
This data does not make me think twice about any other position
This data does not make me think twice about any other position
Posted on 4/25/24 at 10:16 am to moneyg
quote:
Is this signing a 2nd contract with the same team?
quote:
Looking at drafts 2010-2020 (the last full class to hit free agency)...
58.8% of all players drafted received a 2nd contract in the NFL.
Just 15.1% of all players drafted received a 2nd contract from the team that drafted them.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 10:48 am to DBG
quote:
Keep this in mind if you’re excited to sit back at 14 and draft Bowers or Odunze.
I wouldn’t want either of them however I don’t think there is any way either of those guys would be there at 14 but if by chance Odunze was, first call should be to Buffalo and move back.
quote:
while all the OTs go off the board
There is literally no way all the OTs would be off the board. What you mean of course is the top prospects which is entirely subjective. My understanding is this class is very deep at OT but though without an elite prospect. That’s perfect for sitting back and waiting.
I get your concerns over the current roster at OT it’s dire, but you can’t just give up multiple picks when your short already just to secure 1 particular guy at the position because of it.
Posted on 4/25/24 at 12:35 pm to High Life
At least in my view, the settling comes when other teams jump us and take guys from our top bubbles, so we grab an olineman from a lower bubble, skipping players in top bubbles, so we can draft an olineman.
Of course, we never see the bubbles, so we have no idea how these guys are rated internally. As long as it's not the same guys that had Penning rated higher than OT Dallas grabbed later in the 1st - drawing a blank on his name right now
Edit: Tyler Smith: 31 starts in 2 years and already made the PB and named to 2nd team All-Pro as a LG.
Of course, we never see the bubbles, so we have no idea how these guys are rated internally. As long as it's not the same guys that had Penning rated higher than OT Dallas grabbed later in the 1st - drawing a blank on his name right now
Edit: Tyler Smith: 31 starts in 2 years and already made the PB and named to 2nd team All-Pro as a LG.
This post was edited on 4/25/24 at 12:38 pm
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