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re: Convinced Trump will win??

Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:08 am to
Posted by Fat Bastard
coach, investor, gambler
Member since Mar 2009
78939 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:08 am to
quote:

Trump needs to flip Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win.


wrong. AZ, GA and WI
Posted by MoLiberty
Member since Aug 2018
780 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:22 am to
I'm convinced Trump will win the popular and electoral votes, however he will lose to the Marxists counting the votes. DS will not allow Trump (or any outsider) to occupy the WH. Our entire system is an illusion. Albeit a massive spiritual awakening, what little freedom remaining will be subdied and eventually destroyed by the Great Reset minions. Stay prayed up and buckle up, we're in for a rough ride.
Posted by Don Quixote
Member since May 2023
2410 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:29 am to
win? Yes, just like he did in 2020

have it stolen? yes, just like 2020
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
8217 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:35 am to
quote:

wrong. AZ, GA and WI




Trump has no shot at any of those. His best chance is Michigan. Won't matter you clowns will just scream 'fraud' 'cheating' 'rigged' etc. regardless.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
79632 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:38 am to
quote:

Trump has no shot at any of those.


Posted by LRB1967
Tennessee
Member since Dec 2020
18352 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:42 am to
I hope Trump will win but am not convinced.
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
17656 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:43 am to
Well if he doesn't you will have pondered what it means and know what to do. The others will sit down, look up and scream at the sky.
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
8217 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:44 am to
quote:

win? Yes, just like he did in 2020



Trump lost. Badly to a god damn demented fool.

quote:

have it stolen? yes, just like 2020


Trump's merry band of morons that claimed this are all taking plea deals instead of fighting and showing the supposed 'evidence' they had.
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
17656 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:51 am to
quote:

Trump's merry band of morons that claimed this are all taking plea deals instead of fighting and showing the supposed 'evidence' they had.


History will show he had a merry band of morons. Some of which will serve slammer time.

No hate. I've held my nose and voted for him four times on a ballot. But I'm not the cult. I just understand the consequence of the other guy. Okay, hate away.
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
8217 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:52 am to
So, Trump the only candidate actively running got <85% of the vote in Georgia. Walk me through how he is he going to flip that state in November?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
79632 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:54 am to
Provably the same way he won all those states in 2016

Please get your TDS vax or just go back to DU
Posted by Tmcgin
BATON ROUGE
Member since Jun 2010
5572 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:56 am to
Biden can only beat Trump
We are dumb to nominate him
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
17656 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:56 am to
quote:

So, Trump the only candidate actively running got <85% of the vote in Georgia. Walk me through how he is he going to flip that state in November?


So you think the other 15% of the R voters want Biden instead?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
79632 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 7:57 am to
So Biden wouldnt beat Nikki or Ron?

Please walk us through that
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
125438 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 8:11 am to
quote:

Trump has little chance. WI, MI, PA are lost to him. AZ is dubious.


What we have as a go-by is the polling and election results in these states and how they compare to each other:

2016 Trump/Hillary polling.
2016 Trump/Hillary results.
2020 Trump/Biden polling.
2020 Trump/Biden results.
and now 2024 Trump/Biden polling.

How is 2024 Trump/Biden polling fit within that data? Who does it favor?

If you answer those questions with a little digging you will see Trump is polling better in those states than he did versus Hillary when he won those states in 2016. He is polling MUCH better right now than he did versus Biden in 2020 at the same time.

I'm not saying definitively that Trump will win these battleground states. What I'm refuting is your assertion that "Trump as little chance". I'm assuming "little chance" is a lower probability number than 2016 versus Hillary. IMO I believe Trump has a better than 50% chance to win WI, AZ and GA. Michigan is just under 50% for Trump and PA is about 40% for Trump. That's just my judgement right now.

Those are good enough chances to not lose hope.
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
8217 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 8:26 am to
quote:

Provably the same way he won all those states in 2016


It's not 2016 anymore. Things are just a little different now. The group of voters that gave Trump a chance in 2016 have left him (college educated white men and women) he has to have these votes to win in 2024 but he is polling horribly with them especially in Georgia. Like I said none of this matters is you will just claim Trump won California, New York, Illinois, etc and it was all stolen from him in November. In your eyes there is no way Trump can lose despite all the voting demo-graphical information we have and Trump's issues with certain groups he has to have to win.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
79632 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 8:28 am to
You are just making shite up

You dont know how any of it will go

Hes already won the states you say he cant win. So that alone proves you are a moron
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
8217 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 8:42 am to
quote:

Hes already won the states you say he cant win.


Yes and lost them in 2020. What you are saying is like saying "Trump got more votes than any sitting President!!!"

Which means diddly squat when your opponent gets more. 2020 is more relevant than 2016 when it pertains to the 2024 election. Trump has alienated people since 2016 that he has to have to win in 2024. It's why he lost in 2020. These folks either didn't vote or voted for Biden.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
125438 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 8:53 am to
quote:

The group of voters that gave Trump a chance in 2016 have left him (college educated white men and women) he has to have these votes to win in 2024 but he is polling horribly with them especially in Georgia.








Right now Trump in Georgia is where he needs to be to win Georgia like he did in 2016.
Posted by VOR
Member since Apr 2009
64435 posts
Posted on 3/13/24 at 8:53 am to
There is a huge percentage of people who aren’t entertained by the Trump circus, especially among college educated and suburban voters. It will be close. Trump will have to flip some tough states from 2020, and people don’t seem to be as consistently unhappy with Biden as posters here. Biden could very well prevent Trump from reaching the 270 EV’s he needs.
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