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What do people think about the market since Powell’s comments yesterday?

Posted on 3/7/24 at 5:48 am
Posted by dualed
Member since Sep 2010
4714 posts
Posted on 3/7/24 at 5:48 am
Says rate cuts will come this year but won’t say when. Still not convinced we’re beating inflation.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
10540 posts
Posted on 3/7/24 at 6:55 am to
We are definitely beating inflation. Look at commodities markets and it’s clear that the cost of many products are coming down in price

The supply chain is where things get sticky and even that is clearing up.
Posted by ynlvr
Rocket City
Member since Feb 2009
4600 posts
Posted on 3/7/24 at 7:14 am to
Anti business rhetoric coming out of the Administration will not assist lowering of prices or inflation. More regulation and browbeating is not the answer.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
74528 posts
Posted on 3/7/24 at 7:15 am to
Its all about the jobs #s

That mierda BLS last month put a pause on things
Tomorrows numbers are big. ADP and BLS so far off its crazy

Initial Jobless claims are up. Bond market reacting. 10yr is dropping
This post was edited on 3/7/24 at 7:44 am
Posted by go ta hell ole miss
Member since Jan 2007
13665 posts
Posted on 3/7/24 at 7:50 am to
[quote]Still not convinced we’re beating inflation.[/quote

Inflation was 8% in 2022. It’s around 2.8% today. It sounds like you want deflation, if this is not considered beating inflation to you. Sustained deflation would be worse than inflation. Prices are never going down by 8%. People hoping for that are living in a fantasy land.
This post was edited on 3/7/24 at 7:54 am
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
51877 posts
Posted on 3/7/24 at 11:16 am to
quote:

Says rate cuts will come this year but won’t say when.


He's trying to be optimistic but he understands the reality we're in.

There's still a glut of money in the economy, so inflation is remaining "sticky" above 3%. Consumers are still building up debt on high-interest credit cards and it's been going on so long that the average credit rating is starting to take a hit and delinquencies are seeing a steady rise while personal savings is slowly dwindling.
Unemployment has remained low and both job creation and GDP have remained strong.

None of those alone are favorables when looking at cutting rates, but taken together are a statement that rates shouldn't be cut any time soon.

CPI was driven down over the last 6 months in large part due to the drop in the price of oil. That's slowly ticking back up as is the price at the pump and the price of gasoline is likely to remain higher due to various factors (blends, no SPR offset, etc).

I don't expect inflation to dip below 3% for February nor for March. If that's the case then there's no way we get a cut before June. That means the economy would need to be in serious trouble for us to get 3 cuts in 6 months. The longer we go with inflation staying above 3%, the more likely it becomes we might see another hike before we see a cut.

quote:

Still not convinced we’re beating inflation.


You only "beat" inflation (at least, the way I see it) by having deflation and that means the economy is in the shitter (too much supply, not enough demand and that leads to more layoffs). Other than that, you are just assimilating to inflation.
This post was edited on 3/7/24 at 11:35 am
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
13100 posts
Posted on 3/7/24 at 11:17 am to
Rates historically have been lowered coincided with a downturn

Great Recession

Dot Com Bubble

COVID Crash

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
Posted by Art Blakey
Member since Aug 2023
100 posts
Posted on 3/7/24 at 1:31 pm to
LINK

Questioning was a little spicier today.
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