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Maybe I'm wrong...but I think we have a group of pretty much horrible individual...

Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:17 am
Posted by Dinky Mulberry
Member since Aug 2021
2290 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:17 am
---defensive players in our main rotation, with the exception of a couple in our top 8. We should be really bad on overall defensive stats and yet I see stats that list us at a solid #7 in overall defensive rating in the NBA.

---What am I missing? Either our defenders are much better than I think they are or there's some odd "magic" goin' on here. Anybody wanna explain how we have this apparent defensive "mojo" working for us ?? And, as usual...stats usually go a long way toward convincing me of something. Go as deep into the woods as you wish...as I'm always willing to listen...when I think I might be learning something.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 10:19 am
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112635 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:25 am to
The data shows that the starting unit is below average on defense, but the bench units (which is really multiple bench dudes sprinkled in with starters) are very much above average on defense.

League avg DRtg is 115.9

I looked it up last week, so going off memory and I may be off somewhat, but I believe the starting unit is at 118 or 119 defensively.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 10:27 am
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8734 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:43 am to
quote:

The data shows that the starting unit is below average on defense, but the bench units (which is really multiple bench dudes sprinkled in with starters) are very much above average on defense.


1) Our bench this season has consisted of Dyson, Nance, Alvarado, Trey, and Naji. That’s 4 defense first players and 1 offense first player. So that checks out.

2) we are above average in all the “little things” defensively- defensive rebounding rate, turnover % forced, Free throws per FGA. Dare I say this is…good coaching?

3) we’ve allowed the lowest 3 point shooting percentage in the league, which has a fair amount of luck to it.
Posted by Dinky Mulberry
Member since Aug 2021
2290 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:43 am to
Recently had someone try & explain to me...our "philosophy" on defense. He's pretty sharp and pointed out "stats"...to bolster his position on how we, as a team, approach defense.


We are VERY good in a certain area...and have been, for a coupla years now...and this is NO accident. Sadly, at the same time, we are very bad...in another certain area...but are constantly trying to adjust to minimize the damage.

So, naturally, we try & emphasis our strong area...and try to play in such a way that limits our exposure in our weak area. Until our roster changes in a significant way...he says this will continue to be our philosophy...on the defensive end.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112635 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:46 am to
quote:

1) Our bench this season has consisted of Dyson, Nance, Alvarado, Trey, and Naji. That’s 4 defense first players and 1 offense first player. So that checks out.

While this is spot on, the other issue going back to the starting unit is that they are also below average on offense. That should not be the case.

quote:

3) we’ve allowed the lowest 3 point shooting percentage in the league, which has a fair amount of luck to it.

Yep, we sell out to close off drives and shots at the rim....in a big way. This leads to more 3pt attempts, but as you said, there's a luck factor to 3pt% generally speaking, and we've fallen on the good side of that. Though in fairness, I believe we also did the same last season as well, so I do wonder if there's something to it perhaps, or just a good run of 2 years with a little luck on our side. Or possibly and probably, a bit of both.
Posted by Dinky Mulberry
Member since Aug 2021
2290 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:47 am to
quote:

1) Our bench this season has consisted of Dyson, Nance, Alvarado, Trey, and Naji. That’s 4 defense first players and 1 offense first player. So that checks out.

2) we are above average in all the “little things” defensively- defensive rebounding rate, turnover % forced, Free throws per FGA. Dare I say this is…good coaching?

3) we’ve allowed the lowest 3 point shooting percentage in the league, which has a fair amount of luck to it.


Hmmm...#3 is interesting...at some point, the sample size might make the "luck" factor a bit less meaningful. When do we reach that point?
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
103153 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:48 am to
quote:

I looked it up last week, so going off memory and I may be off somewhat, but I believe the starting unit is at 118 or 119 defensively.


The starters being defensively subpar isn’t necessarily an issue if they can be ballers offensively.


To throw a comparison, Denver’s defense hasn’t been great at times but Joker is such an offensive force it outweighs their defensive issues.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112635 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:49 am to
Just looked it up...

This season we are 1st in 3pt% against, on the defensive side.

Last season we were also 1st.


That suggests it's more than just random luck. I guess it could be, but odds are extremely low that this would be the case.



With our scheme, you'd almost think it's the opposite. We sell out so hard on stopping attempts at the rim and are 2nd in 3pt attempts allowed, you'd think maybe more of those are wide open, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

2nd most 3pt attempts against and 7th lowest in the league with allowing 26.0% of FG attempts at 0-3 feet out.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112635 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:50 am to
quote:

The starters being defensively subpar isn’t necessarily an issue if they can be ballers offensively.

Agreed, but they're not. They're below avg on both sides, pretty certain of that.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8734 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Yep, we sell out to close off drives and shots at the rim....in a big way. This leads to more 3pt attempts, but as you said, there's a luck factor to 3pt% generally speaking, and we've fallen on the good side of that. Though in fairness, I believe we also did the same last season as well, so I do wonder if there's something to it perhaps, or just a good run of 2 years with a little luck on our side. Or possibly and probably, a bit of both.


Yea it was lowest in the league last year too. I’m interested now, will look through NBA.com to see if any of their player tracking data explains it.

We’re a pretty big team so I could see our contests on the perimeter being better than average? I can remember Herb and Dyson in particular blocking 3’s
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8734 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:54 am to
It also could be *who* we are letting shoot the shots. Milwaukee under Bud was always notorious with being completely fine with some guys shooting non-corner 3’s until their arms fell off
Posted by mhasen1
Texas
Member since Feb 2008
1864 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:57 am to
1. Herb and Dyson are incredible defenders who can make up for alot.
2. Zion and Ingram make up for some poor defensive discipline and effort with ridiculous physical attributes. Ingram's length allows him to get his hands on alot of balls and block a decent number of shots. Zion never gives up deep post position, and no one in the league backs him down. He also has quick feet and hands. Much of my frustration isn't really based on what kind of defenders they are, but on what kind they could be.
3. Willie uses 1 way defensive players much more than 1 way offensive players.
Posted by BigPerm30
Member since Aug 2011
31066 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 10:58 am to
The problem is the starting unit is not only bad on defense but aren’t very good on offense either.
Posted by SCLSUMuddogs
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2010
8153 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 11:01 am to
Some interesting figures for this conversation. Here are the offensive and defensive ratings for our top 4 most used lineups.

Starters: ORTG-117.0 DRTG-119.4 (350 Minutes)

Starters, but Nance instead of Jonas: ORTG-105.9 DRTG-103.1 (89 Minutes)

Starters, but Dyson instead of CJ: ORTG-134.6 DRTG-113.9 (89 Minutes)

Starters, but Trey instead of Zion: ORTG-117.8 DRTG-95.3 (82 Minutes)
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112635 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 11:02 am to
quote:

Yea it was lowest in the league last year too. I’m interested now, will look through NBA.com to see if any of their player tracking data explains it.

a, I know NBA.com has it but not sure I know how to find it, the 2 things I'd be most interested in...


- Either the % or the raw number of wide open 3s we give up in relation to the rest of the league

- 3pt% on those wide open attempts

Would also be interested to see that across this and last season. I may try to mess around and see if I can find that later on today.
quote:

We’re a pretty big team so I could see our contests on the perimeter being better than average? I can remember Herb and Dyson in particular blocking 3’s
Would be pretty on brand if Herb was the catalyst for this, which seems possible. Not just the blocks but the ground he can cover is probably usually an open 3 if someone else is closing out but turns into a covered 3 with Herb. But I wonder how much 1 person doing that can really affect those numbers as a whole.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112635 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 11:04 am to
quote:

Some interesting figures for this conversation. Here are the offensive and defensive ratings for our top 4 most used lineups.

Starters: ORTG-117.0 DRTG-119.4 (350 Minutes)

Starters, but Nance instead of Jonas: ORTG-105.9 DRTG-103.1 (89 Minutes)

Starters, but Dyson instead of CJ: ORTG-134.6 DRTG-113.9 (89 Minutes)

Starters, but Trey instead of Zion: ORTG-117.8 DRTG-95.3 (82 Minutes)
Thanks for this

League avg is 115.9, so I was wrong, the starting unit is above avg, but it's slight and obviously should be much better.


The lineup where you swap CJ for Dyson is wild, and why I do have some trepidation about these numbers. I don't think anyone would agree that we're better with Dyson and CJ out going forward, but obviously, we've been decidedly better this season when that has happened.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36485 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 11:05 am to
quote:

With our scheme, you'd almost think it's the opposite. We sell out so hard on stopping attempts at the rim and are 2nd in 3pt attempts allowed, you'd think maybe more of those are wide open, but that doesn't appear to be the case.

2nd most 3pt attempts against and 7th lowest in the league with allowing 26.0% of FG attempts at 0-3 feet out.

They give up the second fewest shots from 0-6 feet out, but when opponents do get to the rim they shoot the 6th best against us. So we're good preventing shots at the rim, but if they ever get to the rim no one is stopping them
Posted by SCLSUMuddogs
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2010
8153 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 11:07 am to
I also thought it was interesting to see the DRTG drom from 119.4 to 95.3 when you replace zion with Trey. I wonder if it tracks lineup ratings with splits. I'd be interested to see if the Zion defensive inflation is still present when you just look at the last 10 games or so, since Zion has shown more of a spark
Posted by Dinky Mulberry
Member since Aug 2021
2290 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 11:08 am to
quote:

It also could be *who* we are letting shoot the shots. Milwaukee under Bud was always notorious with being completely fine with some guys shooting non-corner 3’s until their arms fell off


Yep...once you decide on your "philosophy"...which I think we have...on defense. Allowing more 3s to help on preventing penetration to our rim. Once they get all the way to our rim, we are pretty much helpless.

Then, once you decide on "who"...and "from where" you want the opponent shooting 3s...you rotate accordingly AND you want abnormally hard "close outs" at the 3-pt line. I think we have excellent "hard closers"...even a long player like BI can be a solid hard closer if you don't mind the occassional "fly by"...which I think we don't mind in the least. Just imagine a "Herb" (or even a "BI) flying at you on an apparent open 3...even when you're open...you feel the pressure.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8734 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 11:08 am to
quote:

The lineup where you swap CJ for Dyson is wild, and why I do have some trepidation about these numbers. I don't think anyone would agree that we're better with Dyson and CJ out going forward, but obviously, we've been decidedly better this season when that has happened.


Swapping Dyson for CJ and getting better offensively makes less than zero sense lol
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