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Started By
Message
Polls at this point in a Presidential elections always tell you who will win the general.
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:48 am
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:48 am
It's always the guy who is behind at this point who actually wins.
Clinton led Trump by 25 in June 2015
CNN poll
Biden led Trump by 10 in june 2019
CNN poll
Romney led Obama by 6
qinnipiac poll
Mccain led Obama by 5
USA today poll
Harvard Harris predicts Obama loss
According to historical data, Trump will lose bigly in 2024.
Polls are unreliable even right before an election, why do we pay any attention to them 16 months before the election.
Clinton led Trump by 25 in June 2015
CNN poll
Biden led Trump by 10 in june 2019
CNN poll
Romney led Obama by 6
qinnipiac poll
Mccain led Obama by 5
USA today poll
Harvard Harris predicts Obama loss
According to historical data, Trump will lose bigly in 2024.
Polls are unreliable even right before an election, why do we pay any attention to them 16 months before the election.
9
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:49 am to westerntigerfan
“Polls are unreliable”
“Polls at this point always tell you who will win the general”
“Polls at this point always tell you who will win the general”
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:49 am to westerntigerfan
In June of 2015, JEB! was #1
quote:
*** Who gets left off that first debate stage? The NBC/WSJ poll measured 16 GOP candidates in our horserace question. And here are the 10 Republicans who make our poll’s Top 10 -- the criteria being used for the first GOP debate in August -- and the six who get left off:
Jeb Bush 22%
Scott Walker 17%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 11%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Rand Paul 7%
Rick Perry 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Donald Trump 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
John Kasich 1%
Bobby Jindal 0%
Rick Santorum 0%
George Pataki 0%
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:50 am to westerntigerfan
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:50 am to ShinerHorns
quote:
ShinerHorns
Can you read?
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:51 am to westerntigerfan
quote:
According to historical data, Trump will lose bigly in 2024.
How do you come to this conclusion based on what you posted or are you being sarcastic?
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:53 am to westerntigerfan
The only person who can win is a dude polling at 9% and imploding daily
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:54 am to WCTiger1
quote:
The only person who can win is a dude polling at 9% and imploding daily
June 2015
quote:
Jeb Bush 22%
Scott Walker 17%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 11%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Rand Paul 7%
Rick Perry 5%
Ted Cruz 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Donald Trump 1%
Lindsey Graham 1%
John Kasich 1%
Bobby Jindal 0%
Rick Santorum 0%
George Pataki 0%
This post was edited on 7/3/23 at 10:55 am
Posted on 7/3/23 at 10:55 am to BugAC
quote:
Can you read?
quote:
ShinerHorns
From the few posts I've read of this person, I'm going to assume their grasp on English is a work in progress
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:03 am to BugAC
Who in that 2015 poll was at 50 plus percent?
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:05 am to KirbySmartsDentist
quote:
Who in that 2015 poll was at 50 plus percent?
Shhhhhh... rob bots need some hope bro
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:07 am to KirbySmartsDentist
quote:
Who in that 2015 poll was at 50 plus percent?
Correct but don't try and tell these dummies.
There is nothing about this race that is similar to 2015.
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:09 am to westerntigerfan
quote:
According to historical
Because this exact scenario has come about so many times in the past.
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:09 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
How do you come to this conclusion based on what you posted or are you being sarcastic?
I come to that conclusion based on the fact that since 2016, when Trump barely beat the worst candidate in a half century, he has been losing support rapidly and lost 2020 to a corpse. If you put faith in polls as a predictor of electoral outcomes, which I don't, then you can take it however you want.
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:12 am to westerntigerfan
quote:
If you put faith in polls as a predictor of electoral outcomes, which I don't, then you can take it however you want.
Right. I'm asking, what poll are you possibly referencing that I might be "put[ting] my faith in as a predictor of electoral outcomes" in order to make the assertion here you are making? I guess I'm just not getting where you are seeing the parallel here to make such an assertion.
What am I missing?
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:15 am to westerntigerfan
Most if not all these polls you mention were a part of this organized steal.
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:15 am to westerntigerfan
Imagine how you dense have to be to claim elections are rigged but believe mainstream media polls are gospel.
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:15 am to KirbySmartsDentist
quote:
Who in that 2015 poll was at 50 plus percent?
Trump is basically an incumbent in the Trpublican party, he should be in the 70%'s at minimun.
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:21 am to westerntigerfan
quote:
Trump is basically an incumbent in the Trpublican party, he should be in the 70%'s at minimun.
What does that have to do with the general election polling numbers you are referencing in the OP?
You seem to be conflating a lot of things here.
Posted on 7/3/23 at 11:26 am to Y.A. Tittle
The point is that if you believe that the polls at this point in the campaign then the data suggests that the candidate that is ahead will lose in the general. All of those polls, and the conventional wisdom at the time, suggested that the eventual winner would lose badly. Except in 2020 when the polls had Biden up by 7 and he won by 3. But if you believe the election was stolen than that one would also follow the trend.
I think polling, this far out of an election is suspect at best. I believe that, if nominated, Trump will lose to Biden again. The polls suggest otherwise, but the polls have always been dead wrong at this point on the last several election cylcles.
I think polling, this far out of an election is suspect at best. I believe that, if nominated, Trump will lose to Biden again. The polls suggest otherwise, but the polls have always been dead wrong at this point on the last several election cylcles.
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