Trump performed worse in GOP swing state counties in 2020 than he did in 2016

Hypothesis: There is a theory that Dems flipped the 2020 election by creating fraudulent ballots in heavily Democratic counties in swing states. If this is the only reason Biden won, then Trump should have performed the same or better in Republican counties in these states compared to how he performed in 2016.

Method: I will randomly pick 4 counties in swing states that Trump won by at least 5% in 2016, trying to sample different parts of each state. I will compare the 2016 results to the 2020 results to see if Trump performed the same or better in these counties.

Result: Trump maintained or performed better in 2 out of the 12 counties sampled. Biden performed better than Hillary in 10 out of the 12 counties.


note: “Total Voters” is approximate just to give an idea of size of each county.


Wisconsin

2016 Polk: Trump +27.7%
2020 Polk: Trump +27.5%
Total voters: 10,000

2016 Lincoln: Trump +21.8%
2020 Lincoln: Trump +22.7%
Total voters: 14,000

2016 Grant: Trump +9.5%
2020 Grant: Trump +12.3%
Total voters: 22,000

2016 Winnebago: Trump +7.5%
2020 Winnebago: Trump +4%
Total voters: 80,000

Average Trump margin of victory change from 2016 to 2020 across these 4 counties: unchanged

Analysis: While the average margin of victory stayed the same for these four counties from 2016 to 2020, Biden made up ground due to the better result he had than Hillary in the largest county, Winnebago.


Pennsylvania

2016 Crawford: Trump +38.5%
2020 Crawford: Trump +37.2%
Total voters: 42,000

2016 Cambria: Trump +37.7%
2020 Cambria: Trump +37.3%
Total voters: 70,000

2016 Luzerne: Trump +19.6%
2020 Luzerne: Trump +14.4%
Total voters: 152,000

2016 Berks: Trump +10.2%
2020 Berks: Trump +8.2%
Total voters: 203,000

Average Trump margin of victory change from 2016 to 2020 across these 4 counties: -2.3%

Analysis: Biden performed better than Hillary in all of these counties.


Georgia

2016 Hall: Trump +50.7%
2020 Hall: Trump +43.3%
Total voters: 89,000

2016 Columbia: Trump +37.7%
2020 Columbia: Trump +25.8%
Total voters: 79,000

2016 Glynn: Trump +28.6%
2020 Glynn: Trump +23.2%
Total voters: 42,000

2016 Floyd: Trump +43.6%
2020 Floyd: Trump +41.1%
Total voters: 41,000

Average Trump margin of victory change from 2016 to 2020 across these 4 counties: -6.8%

Analysis: Biden performed better than Hillary in all of these counties.