re: Taking a poll: Who thinks and why:

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Commercial Real Estate - Everyone bought with ballon loans coming due with rents that can't support the new interest rates. 100% fricked.

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Yes, this is a legit source of losses that will have to work through the system.

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Residential Real Estate - Transaction levels are approaching lock down velocity with interest rates showing no sign of coming down. Only thing keeping it from crashing is low unemployment rates. If we hang on to low unemployment, we might can weather this storm.

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Meh. Way less levered than 2007, way higher lending standards have persisted since then. Lots of equity in general to support a correction. Nothing existential.

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Stock Market - Much harder to predict as people much smarter than myself frick up their predictions all the time. My personal guess is we have many more banks go under due to the high interest rate environment that spreads throughout the market.

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On the one hand, I don't see many bull rallies STARTING at 18X earnings. But on the other, nominal earnings are keeping pace (and beating) inflation, so no reason for a crash or anything.