re: I know why the fanbase is so split on Derek Carr

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How would Carr do in an offense without the best RB in the league?

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Carr's best season, Jacobs wasn't anywhere near the NFL

That year he had:

Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree (old), Latavius Murray, Clive Walford...

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Yeah but if he comes here and balls out we could win a Superbowl

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We have too many holes and face too stacked of an AFC to honestly believe that.

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. If we tank for a rookie that is 2 years wasted and potentially 3-4 more trying to figure out if he can play.

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Dude our cap is so fricked we can't even start a rebuild for 2-3 years if we wanted to. Signing Carr extends that window for even more years.

If Carr doesn't pan out or gets injured we are literally facing a historical scenario of how bad we will have to be for over half a decade. You're talking being worried about 2-3 years and I'm talking about being worried over 5-7

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This is the best option and again trying to tank for a high draft pick is a losers mentality

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We are in a loser scenario and make it worse and extend that window the longer we dont admit it. I'm not even talking about draft picks (in or out).

Laugh all you want, but Raiders declined the 5th year option on him. That’s unheard for a running back when their first few years are the most valuable. There was a reason for that. No one wants to pay rbs 2nd contracts and they declined locking him up an additional year.

Meanwhile, Carr got a 120 million 3 year extension….
Do some research next time….

The question to me is do we want to spend the next 3-4 years winning just enough games to make the playoffs or division only to get bounced in the playoffs.

I have little doubt that especially with next year's schedule Carr could win 10-11 games and win the South. Then get a 1st round game and lose to the 5th seed the same way that the Bucs did this year.

Then post less fricking pussy

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We are much more like Baltimore BUT their style of offense, their IDENTITY as a team is very similar. Average QB play. Great defense.

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This is where you're wrong.



SF was 4th in EPA/play this year on offense and #1 on D

BAL was 14th in EPA/play in 2012 on offense and 13th on D

Their D is obviously elite, but their offense is very, very good. That "play good defense and run" does not work in today's NFL. You have to have an elite, overall efficient offense.

We were 10th in Defensive EPA/play and were 22nd in offense.

Last 10 super bowl participants EPA/play offensive ranking

2022: 1 & 3
2021: 8 & 11
2020: 3 & 5
2019: 2 & 5 (SF, again)
2018: 3 & 7
2017: 1 & 7
2016: 1 & 2
2015: 7 & 25 (1-armed Manning)
2014: 4 & 6
2013: 1 & 9 (even that historic SEA team had a top-10 offense)
2012: 5 & 14

Top-10 EPA/play offenses are basically mandatory to make a Super Bowl these days. San Francisco has a great offense because of insane talent and a top-3 offensive coach running the show. The Saints do not have their offensive talent nor do they have their offensive coaching/scheming.

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but the STYLE is the same.

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They were 5 in EPA/play. We were 22nd

They were 4th in dropback EPA. We were 18th

They were only 11th in rush EPA. However, we were 27th

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Their EPA is so high because Shanny has the best run scheme in the league.

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Go back to what I said:

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Also SF is coached by a top 3 (probably #1) offensive mind who schemes the hell out of their offense

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Do we have a coach anywhere near the quality of Shanny? frick no. It's the biggest absurdity of this comparison (to either BAL or NO)

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San Fran was 2nd in the league in rushing attempts and 29th in pass attempts in 2019 as well. This year they were 8th in rush attempts and 25th in pass attempts.

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This is dinosaur analysis and shows why it's irrelevant. SF was more efficient with their dropbacks than their runs. Again, because Shanny schemes the hell out of his insane offensive talent.

We don't have a coach in the stratosphere of Shanny and we don't have their weapons.

We also don't have their defense.

We are nothing like SF

SF is nothing like BAL 2012. We are closer to BAL 2012 than SF is to either of those teams.

BAL 2012 could not win a title today. The league has evolved and inefficient running and defense doesn't win. Even the SEA championship team, who relied on their historic defense, had an efficient offense that ran the ball.

We don't have the coaching/scheme or talent to replicate that. Even if you wanted. AK was never a bellcow and has lost a few steps. Our defense is going to take a big step back after losing Davenport and Onyamata (along with Maye/Mathieu getting a year older/worse because they're both on the decline).

All of this to frick our team for more than half a decade.

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You trying to tell me you’d rather Jimmy G over Carr?

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What is the cost/cap difference?

We're going to be nowhere near title contender with either (plus our roster/coaching). If Jimmy G comes at a significant discount, I prefer him.

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Lol so now it’s turned to your stats are more relevant than mine?

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I'm using better stats. You're using stats to try to conform to your argument. I'm using stats that show what wins in the NFL today. That's the difference.

Running the ball a lot for the sake of running it doesn't win you shite in the modern NFL. That's why BAL is a terrible example for the apex hope of this team.

You then moved that BAL comparison to San Fran, because they're really good at running the ball. You ignore that they don't win because they just run a lot, while I initially pointed out their coach/scheme is why they're so efficient. Then you circled back to...admitting it's because of the coach/scheme.

A coach and scheme that we lack.

We also lack their talent.

What you did was take an OK team-team comparison (23 NO and 12 BAL) and try to fit it into a different discussion (what wins a title in the NFL in the 20s). It doesn't work on any level.

Could the 23 Saints (with Carr) potentially have won it all in 2012? Sure. Can they in 2023? Not without historic luck.

Could the 23 49ers win in 2012 or 2023? Yes. Because of elite coaching and talent. Translates to any era.

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Hell, I’d argue 2017 Philly was pretty damn similar as well after Wentz went down.

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Still a top-10 EPA/play offense in 2017.

We were 22nd last year

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They had a top 5 D

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4th in EPA/play

We were 10th last year and will be worse in 2023

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There is a blueprint to winning without stellar QB play.

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It involves talent and coaching that we do not have.

It involves a defense that we did not have in 22 and are unlikely to have in 23.

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We don’t need Carr to be top 10 if we can run the ball and play great D.

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To be more specific, we have to run efficiently (22nd in EPA/rush last year)

...and our D is losing major pieces and wasn't elite enough last year with those pieces

The dead cap that keep increasing has eaten up our ability to improve the team necessary to reach that level. We could potentially win the South but we're tiers away from a title. And this makes our future the bleakest in NFL history. Are a few preseason NFL South titles worth that cost?

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Laugh all you want, but Raiders declined the 5th year option on him. That’s unheard for a running back when their first few years are the most valuable. There was a reason for that. No one wants to pay rbs 2nd contracts and they declined locking him up an additional year

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Lol. You’re clueless