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Started By
Message
Post Santa market tank
Posted on 12/28/22 at 11:05 am
Posted on 12/28/22 at 11:05 am
2023 will be nasty
Posted on 12/28/22 at 11:10 am to Strannix
Santa got shot down over Israeli airspace, that’s why Raytheon is up 8% today
Doesn’t really matter because we’ll all be in the fema camp next year
Doesn’t really matter because we’ll all be in the fema camp next year
Posted on 12/28/22 at 12:27 pm to Strannix
we just getting started baw
Posted on 12/28/22 at 4:35 pm to el Gaucho
quote:
Doesn’t really matter because we’ll all be in the fema camp next year
Not all of us. I’ve been in my bug out location since Biden was elected.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:41 pm to Strannix
Every time I have played puts this year I have gotten chopped up. Playing the long game with a bunch of cash I think is where I am going to be at least for the first 2 quarters.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:49 pm to Strannix
Billionaires and bankers have been at war with retail for two years now. Just waiting for this tussle to go live
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:56 pm to el Gaucho
quote:
that’s why Raytheon is up 8% today
What are you
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:57 pm to Triple Bogey
quote:
Every time I have played puts this year I have gotten chopped up.
Long or short?
Posted on 12/28/22 at 7:02 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
Long or short?
Buying puts. Should have clarified that.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 7:17 pm to Strannix
quote:
Post Santa market tank
quote:
2023 will be nasty
I'm holding 850 shares of Amazon at $99.50.
I might be the Santa shaking the bell and bucket next Christmas.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 7:48 pm to Triple Bogey
quote:I’m currently leading a fundraising round for a great investment: helping Triple Bogey buy puts.
Buying puts. Should have clarified that.
Posted on 12/28/22 at 9:00 pm to Triple Bogey
quote:really?
Every time I have played puts this year I have gotten chopped up
Posted on 12/29/22 at 3:50 pm to DTRooster
quote:
really?
Well yeah. Sentiment gets extremely bearish, you buy puts expecting it to get worse and then out of nowhere an up 3% day to crush you on no news
Posted on 12/29/22 at 6:33 pm to Triple Bogey
I generally don’t buy options, except as part of spread strategies. And this isn’t a criticism of what you’ve done or telling you what to do in the future, but option buyers would usually do the opposite of what I do as an options premium seller; I sell when IV is relatively high, whereas they’d buy when IV is relatively low. Generally speaking, I seek to sell at higher premiums, they seek to buy at lower premiums. If you buy in the middle of a downturn, you have a chance that the market might go in your favor directionally, but any contraction in IV will make your options worth less.
Let’s say the VIX is hanging around the upper teens, so IV on the S&P is relatively low. For most of this year, that’s been a pretty reliable signal that the market is going to turn down (maybe violently). If that happens, IV (the VIX) should expand/rise. As a put buyer, you’d have paid a lower price with that lower IV than you would if/when the IV expands. You wouldn’t even need the market to tank for your options to go up in price or (intrinsic) value. Your puts will go up just based on the IV expansion.
Maybe that helps some… or clear as mud?
Let’s say the VIX is hanging around the upper teens, so IV on the S&P is relatively low. For most of this year, that’s been a pretty reliable signal that the market is going to turn down (maybe violently). If that happens, IV (the VIX) should expand/rise. As a put buyer, you’d have paid a lower price with that lower IV than you would if/when the IV expands. You wouldn’t even need the market to tank for your options to go up in price or (intrinsic) value. Your puts will go up just based on the IV expansion.
Maybe that helps some… or clear as mud?
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