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Post Santa market tank

Posted on 12/28/22 at 11:05 am
Posted by Strannix
C.S.A.
Member since Dec 2012
52949 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 11:05 am
2023 will be nasty
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58529 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 11:10 am to
Santa got shot down over Israeli airspace, that’s why Raytheon is up 8% today



Doesn’t really matter because we’ll all be in the fema camp next year
Posted by Nonetheless
MAGA
Member since Jan 2012
34354 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 12:27 pm to
we just getting started baw
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
43161 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 4:35 pm to
quote:

Doesn’t really matter because we’ll all be in the fema camp next year


Not all of us. I’ve been in my bug out location since Biden was elected.
Posted by Triple Bogey
19th Green
Member since May 2017
6572 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:41 pm to
Every time I have played puts this year I have gotten chopped up. Playing the long game with a bunch of cash I think is where I am going to be at least for the first 2 quarters.
Posted by Dirtyboro
Member since Jul 2014
717 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:49 pm to
Billionaires and bankers have been at war with retail for two years now. Just waiting for this tussle to go live
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:56 pm to
quote:

that’s why Raytheon is up 8% today




What are you ?
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

Every time I have played puts this year I have gotten chopped up.


Long or short?
Posted by Triple Bogey
19th Green
Member since May 2017
6572 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 7:02 pm to
quote:

Long or short?


Buying puts. Should have clarified that.
Posted by DiamondDog
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2019
12840 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 7:17 pm to
quote:

Post Santa market tank
quote:

2023 will be nasty


I'm holding 850 shares of Amazon at $99.50.

I might be the Santa shaking the bell and bucket next Christmas.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35373 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

Buying puts. Should have clarified that.
I’m currently leading a fundraising round for a great investment: helping Triple Bogey buy puts.
Posted by DTRooster
Belle River, La
Member since Dec 2013
8893 posts
Posted on 12/28/22 at 9:00 pm to
quote:

Every time I have played puts this year I have gotten chopped up
really?
Posted by Triple Bogey
19th Green
Member since May 2017
6572 posts
Posted on 12/29/22 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

really?


Well yeah. Sentiment gets extremely bearish, you buy puts expecting it to get worse and then out of nowhere an up 3% day to crush you on no news
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 12/29/22 at 6:33 pm to
I generally don’t buy options, except as part of spread strategies. And this isn’t a criticism of what you’ve done or telling you what to do in the future, but option buyers would usually do the opposite of what I do as an options premium seller; I sell when IV is relatively high, whereas they’d buy when IV is relatively low. Generally speaking, I seek to sell at higher premiums, they seek to buy at lower premiums. If you buy in the middle of a downturn, you have a chance that the market might go in your favor directionally, but any contraction in IV will make your options worth less.

Let’s say the VIX is hanging around the upper teens, so IV on the S&P is relatively low. For most of this year, that’s been a pretty reliable signal that the market is going to turn down (maybe violently). If that happens, IV (the VIX) should expand/rise. As a put buyer, you’d have paid a lower price with that lower IV than you would if/when the IV expands. You wouldn’t even need the market to tank for your options to go up in price or (intrinsic) value. Your puts will go up just based on the IV expansion.

Maybe that helps some… or clear as mud?
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