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Started By
Message
CPI cooling off, markets ripping
Posted on 12/13/22 at 7:41 am
Posted on 12/13/22 at 7:41 am
US Nov Consumer Prices +0.1%; Consensus +0.3%
US Nov CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.2%; Consensus +0.3%
US Nov Consumer Prices Increase 7.1% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 6.0% Over Year
US Nov CPI Energy Prices -1.6%; Food Prices +0.5%
US Nov CPI Ex-Food & Energy +0.2%; Consensus +0.3%
US Nov Consumer Prices Increase 7.1% From Year Earlier; Core CPI Up 6.0% Over Year
US Nov CPI Energy Prices -1.6%; Food Prices +0.5%
7
Posted on 12/13/22 at 7:44 am to TigerTatorTots
LOL. Wild west right now.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 7:46 am to TigerTatorTots
You now have about a month and half to prepare for when the markets realize why inflation has cooled.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 7:48 am to Pendulum
Tell me more.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 7:48 am to evil cockroach
Check out the 3500 level thread below this, we've been discussing this for months, alot is summarized in that thread
This post was edited on 12/13/22 at 7:55 am
Posted on 12/13/22 at 7:58 am to TigerTatorTots
The market “ripping” at the first sign of inflation easing is going to make the fed be more aggressive- not less.
The beatings will continue until morale worsens.
The beatings will continue until morale worsens.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:01 am to Highthoughts
quote:
The market “ripping” at the first sign of inflation easing is going to make the fed be more aggressive- not less.
Nah. They are going to dial back rate increases. We are already at a serious risk of deflation being our largest problem next year.
I think we see a 50 point increase, then a 25 point and then we stay flat until something breaks (and it will).
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:03 am to I Love Bama
The fed does not want to see the markets increasing. They have been very clear as to their goal.
They want the velocity of money to tank and indicators that there’s this reservoir of money sitting on the sideline trying to time the bottom is probably going to impact their decision making.
They want the velocity of money to tank and indicators that there’s this reservoir of money sitting on the sideline trying to time the bottom is probably going to impact their decision making.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:05 am to Highthoughts
quote:
The fed does not want to see the markets increasing.
Economy is fricked next year and they know it. Markets will respond accordingly when they realize it.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:05 am to Pendulum
quote:
Check out the 3500 level thread below this, we've been discussing this for months, alot is summarized in that thread
Nope
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:07 am to TigerTatorTots
I feel pretty good that shelter was the main thing really contributing to the number. Shelter is a lagging indicator, which hopefully means we may be coming up on the end of the train.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:08 am to I Love Bama
Markets are fricked- that is true.
The current market already realizes it- that’s where you’re wrong.
Current market is banking on the market being “fricked” and interest rates dropping.
Not happening. Once the markets realize that, then that’s the bottom.
The current market already realizes it- that’s where you’re wrong.
Current market is banking on the market being “fricked” and interest rates dropping.
Not happening. Once the markets realize that, then that’s the bottom.
This post was edited on 12/13/22 at 8:10 am
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:12 am to Highthoughts
quote:
Current market is banking on the market being “fricked” and interest rates dropping.
Not happening. Once the markets realize that, then that’s the bottom.
Very plausible.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:18 am to Pendulum
You all sit on your hands and wait on this doomsday scenario you are all talking about. Or doom year or whatever. Meanwhile I'm going to short the ever loving hell out of the dollar. Wish me luck.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 8:45 am to BarleyPop
LINK
I've bought into this CPI print actually. Have been saying that in a lot of posts.
MOM has been telegraphing the drop for months now, since July, it has been on this path; at the same time, the yoy comp is getting easier. It will just take time for the yoy number to work down. Unfortunately MOM is still like a .3% avg over last 4 months. You cant extrapolate 2% from that. I think CPI will continue to fall, based on the math of the mom and yoy comparisons, but it isn't dropping to 2% without wider pain and the market doesn't yet get that imo; and I don't see jerome backing off and letting inflation sit at 3 to 4%
Do you see energy components being negative going forward 3 months? I don't but thats up for discussion.
Productivity hasn't gone up
Laborforce participation hasn't gone up
Wages haven't gone down
PPI actually showed a slight bounce last friday
GDP would be negative for the year if it weren't for energy exports due to war in ukraine
The Fed is driving down headline CPI by increasing cost of capital, they cant actually fix anything. Earnings will start to show that. You cant do that for free and have a raging market at the same time.
Am I forecasting doom? not at all; that's ridiculous, I'm very invested. Am I forecasting limited upside possible once the water is dashed on earnings starting in late Jan? Certainly.
The yield inversion is telling you what you need to know. We just have some time to work now unless Jerome wants to stop this tomorrow, or plots show terminal still staying at 5%, market wont like that.
I've bought into this CPI print actually. Have been saying that in a lot of posts.
MOM has been telegraphing the drop for months now, since July, it has been on this path; at the same time, the yoy comp is getting easier. It will just take time for the yoy number to work down. Unfortunately MOM is still like a .3% avg over last 4 months. You cant extrapolate 2% from that. I think CPI will continue to fall, based on the math of the mom and yoy comparisons, but it isn't dropping to 2% without wider pain and the market doesn't yet get that imo; and I don't see jerome backing off and letting inflation sit at 3 to 4%
Do you see energy components being negative going forward 3 months? I don't but thats up for discussion.
Productivity hasn't gone up
Laborforce participation hasn't gone up
Wages haven't gone down
PPI actually showed a slight bounce last friday
GDP would be negative for the year if it weren't for energy exports due to war in ukraine
The Fed is driving down headline CPI by increasing cost of capital, they cant actually fix anything. Earnings will start to show that. You cant do that for free and have a raging market at the same time.
Am I forecasting doom? not at all; that's ridiculous, I'm very invested. Am I forecasting limited upside possible once the water is dashed on earnings starting in late Jan? Certainly.
The yield inversion is telling you what you need to know. We just have some time to work now unless Jerome wants to stop this tomorrow, or plots show terminal still staying at 5%, market wont like that.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 9:12 am to Pendulum
Agree dont see Inflation getting back to where it was a few years and that's ok but it must keep coming down. I do see food prices where i shop weekly slowly coming down but still high compared to a year ago. Markets on the other hand are burning hot again. I bought quality companies a few months ago and have watched them climb really fast over that time. Just not buying at these levels. Do see another pullback maybe first/second Qtr of next year but not the Doom that many had hoped for. Right now i'm holding about 20% cash ready to add to my positions if we get back around the 3300 to 3500 on the S&P.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 9:13 am to Pendulum
I'm not after you individually, Pen. More addressing the group and you are the post I responded to.
If inflation stays down and the fed only does another .75 total before pause, that's going to drop the dollar. If, moving into the spring and summer, its looking like they won't need to do anything else, thats a weaker dollar. If everything goes to shite and inflation is under control, that's rate cuts and a weaker dollar.
I do worry about runaway oil next year. And I would prefer the DOW at 32000 because 35000 right now is too high. And markets dropping way back would hit my dollar shorts.
As long as these .2 and .3 m/m cores keep rolling in, thats buying time til the 0.0s start showing up.
I agree they can't stay at .3 all next year, but .3s through Spring will be well received.
If inflation stays down and the fed only does another .75 total before pause, that's going to drop the dollar. If, moving into the spring and summer, its looking like they won't need to do anything else, thats a weaker dollar. If everything goes to shite and inflation is under control, that's rate cuts and a weaker dollar.
I do worry about runaway oil next year. And I would prefer the DOW at 32000 because 35000 right now is too high. And markets dropping way back would hit my dollar shorts.
As long as these .2 and .3 m/m cores keep rolling in, thats buying time til the 0.0s start showing up.
I agree they can't stay at .3 all next year, but .3s through Spring will be well received.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 9:16 am to Pendulum
quote:
You cant extrapolate 2% from that. I think CPI will continue to fall, based on the math of the mom and yoy comparisons, but it isn't dropping to 2% without wider pain and the market doesn't yet get that imo; and I don't see jerome backing off and letting inflation sit at 3 to 4%
I agree that the last little bit to get to 2% will be difficult. 80/20 rule is true across most of life, and that last 20% will take 80% of the work. I'd like to think the Fed is driving this thing like a freight train or and will apply the brakes ahead of time, but who knows.
Posted on 12/13/22 at 9:29 am to BarleyPop
quote:
I'm going to short the ever loving hell out of the dollar. Wish me luck.
How are you doing this and how are you protecting yourself?
Posted on 12/13/22 at 9:48 am to molsusports
Usd/Cad short
I'm always watching closely and if it moves against me more than I'm comfortable with I will pick another dollar cross and hedge with it.
I'm always watching closely and if it moves against me more than I'm comfortable with I will pick another dollar cross and hedge with it.
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