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Started By
Message
While Putin doubles down in Ukraine, his gas gambit is failing
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:43 pm
Financial Times
How long can Putin last?
Assuming this is true, why would the US, Poland, EU, etc. destroy the pipeline? The theory is that the US did it to make sure the EU didn't bend the knee, but if the EU has already secured enough in supply, this makes no sense. If the EU doesn't bend the knee, the sanctions would prevent flow to Europe.
quote:
While Russia needs to sell the EU its natural gas, Europe no longer needs these supplies. Gas is becoming a buyer’s market. The energy crunch should be no threat to unified support for Ukraine, let alone Europeans’ comfort this winter, despite Putin’s machinations.
Certainly the alleged sabotage of the active Nord Stream 1 pipeline and the unopened Nord Stream 2 pipeline has shut down two sources of Russian gas, but the EU no longer needs them. Similarly, Putin’s fresh threats to cut off Russian gas still being sent through the Ukrainian transit pipeline system are intended to spark renewed concerns in Europe. But Europeans should be warmed by the burst of gas transforming markets this autumn.
quote:
Analysis of underlying supply patterns reveals that, contrary to common belief, Europe is securing enough gas and liquefied natural gas from global markets to fully substitute for lost Russian supplies already. What is more, it can fully replace every last bit of Russian gas without any need for demand destruction or even substitution away from gas.
quote:
All the data suggest that, contrary to fears of a supply crunch, Europe is securing enough gas and LNG from global markets to fully replace supplies from Russian gas. Putin, by contrast, will be losing what we conservatively estimate to be $100bn from lost gas sales annually.
How long can Putin last?
Assuming this is true, why would the US, Poland, EU, etc. destroy the pipeline? The theory is that the US did it to make sure the EU didn't bend the knee, but if the EU has already secured enough in supply, this makes no sense. If the EU doesn't bend the knee, the sanctions would prevent flow to Europe.
This post was edited on 10/10/22 at 2:45 pm
45
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:45 pm to SlowFlowPro
Even more evidence Russia had nothing to do with the Nord Stream 2 sabotage.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:45 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
Even more evidence Russia had nothing to do with the Nord Stream 2 sabotage.
What?
I literally just included a portion showing why this makes Europe or the US less likely to have done it.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:46 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
Even more evidence Russia had nothing to do with the Nord Stream 2 sabotage.
You gotta pull his string, don't you?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:46 pm to SlowFlowPro
That's cool and all, but backing a mad man with nuclear weapons will have consequences at some point. More innocent people are going to die because of this bull shite.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:47 pm to partyboy1930
quote:
More innocent people are going to die because of this bull shite.
I agree. Russia is evil.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:48 pm to SlowFlowPro
They are buying up every drop they can get. This is jacking up prices around the world. My electric bill has been over $600 a month for the last few months as a result of this push/pull of world supply. Wait until the folks up north start getting winter bills after an easy summer.
Europe running itself into a massive recession is a failing gambit by Putin? It looks like it is working perfectly to me
You are way too invested in this war
Europe running itself into a massive recession is a failing gambit by Putin? It looks like it is working perfectly to me
You are way too invested in this war
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:50 pm to SlowFlowPro
Gas is becoming a buyer’s market
Quit reading there
Quit reading there
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:50 pm to SlowFlowPro
Yeah, it is.
USA! USA! USA!
USA! USA! USA!
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:51 pm to LSUBadger
quote:
They are buying up every drop they can get. This is jacking up prices around the world. My electric bill has been over $600 a month for the last few months as a result of this push/pull of world supply. Wait until the folks up north start getting winter bills after an easy summer.
This is exactly what I mean when I say Russia's invasion is costing the world hundreds of billions of dollars.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:51 pm to SlowFlowPro
Russia is badly hurting. This article explains it in depth, Europe increasingly has other suppliers who can provide them gas. If that’s the case, why would Putin intentionally and permanently cut off any possibility that he could re-enter the market? His gas could have still been price competitive in a year, as long as it was going through pipelines.
You’re arguing that because Europe no longer needs the gas that Russia provides, and doesn’t need the gas, and it makes it less likely that they cut it off. In actuality, it is lowering the risk to Europe of not having access to Russian gas. Now that the risk is lower, safer to blow the pipeline and prevent Russia from selling.
You’re arguing that because Europe no longer needs the gas that Russia provides, and doesn’t need the gas, and it makes it less likely that they cut it off. In actuality, it is lowering the risk to Europe of not having access to Russian gas. Now that the risk is lower, safer to blow the pipeline and prevent Russia from selling.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:51 pm to SlowFlowPro
OP literally cannot stop sucking Zelensky’s dick
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:52 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:Regime propaganda.
Gas is becoming a buyer’s market.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:54 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Europe no longer needs these supplies. Gas is becoming a buyer’s market.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:54 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
This is exactly what I mean when I say Russia's invasion is costing the world hundreds of billions of dollars.
Our electric bills were already going up here because our provider had to shut down two coal plants.
Did we shut down the coal plants because of Ukraine?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:54 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
This is exactly what I mean when I say Russia's invasion is costing the world hundreds of billions of dollars.
So, stop the sanctions and turn on NS2. Problem solved!
I have no idea if this is true, but I came across something that one pipe is still intact.
quote:
After the suspected sabotage of the network last week in a series of explosions, Gazprom said on Monday three of the lines were affected and one wasn’t. The gas giant has lowered pressure on the unaffected line B of Nord Stream 2 to inspect the link for damage and potential leaks, it said in a statement on its Telegram account.
An Unz Review commenter explained:
The vaunted US Navy screwed up. In the murky depths of the Baltic Sea they planted their explosives to blow up the ***FOUR*** pipes of the NS 1 & NS2 gas pipelines. (You didn’t know there were four pipes, did you? Neither did I.) But they appear to have screwed up and placed two of the explosive packages on one of the NS2 pipes — line A — leaving the other pipe — line B — with no explosive charge, and subsequently ***NO DAMAGE***. Line B is therefore ***READY TO GO*** with a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters per year … which for comparison is 50% of total capacity of Nordstream 1, which as you may recall was recently reduced to 20% capacity before being shut down completely. (2.75 times the capacity of the newly-opened Norway-to-Poland gas pipeline).”
LINK
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:55 pm to cokebottleag
quote:
If that’s the case, why would Putin intentionally and permanently cut off any possibility that he could re-enter the market?
He's not re-entering that market anytime soon and this gives him lots of options. He can use disinfo networks to blame the West. He can claim victim status. He can claim this is an aggressive permitting him to escalate (his M.O.). Etc.
If Europe is already getting gas from other market and won't be returning to Russia, what do they gain by blowing up the pipeline?
quote:
is gas could have still been price competitive in a year, as long as it was going through pipelines.
Dude. Sanctions against Russia aren't going away anytime soon.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:56 pm to the808bass
quote:
Our electric bills were already going up here because our provider had to shut down two coal plants.
Did we shut down the coal plants because of Ukraine?
I didn't say this was the only reason energy costs were going up in each market in the world.
Clearly, the cost of petro is increasing due to Russia's invasion. That's going to cost the EU and US a lot of money.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:56 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Sanctions against Russia aren't going away anytime soon.
Europe's need for energy is greater than their need to preserve their money laundering front.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 2:56 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
So, stop the sanctions
Win, lose, or draw, that ship has sailed.
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