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Started By
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FOMC projections for Q4 this year and beyond
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:02 pm
Just released. The projections are yoy for the 4th quarter of each year indicated. Doesn't look bad everything considered but maybe they are being overly optimistic again.
I believe the December projection refers the projections made in December of last year but when I look at those projections, they don't match so it's unclear to me what's going on with that because the notes provided below the table don't explain it.
Fedsite
I believe the December projection refers the projections made in December of last year but when I look at those projections, they don't match so it's unclear to me what's going on with that because the notes provided below the table don't explain it.
Fedsite
4
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:28 pm to Diseasefreeforall
I'm not sure how they are expecting GDP growth when the economy has slowed the entire year.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:37 pm to Bard
Continued downside today after the fed hike. No end in sight in the near future.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 2:41 pm to Diseasefreeforall
Spy heading back to 360 support.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:03 pm to Bard
quote:
I'm not sure how they are expecting GDP growth when the economy has slowed the entire year
They don't. And they know the employment numbers are worse than the numbers they used.
But the play requires they say the economy is strong and employment is strong so they can raise rates.
They meant the part about pain last time.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 3:21 pm to Diseasefreeforall
Has the Fed EVER forecasted ANYTHING correctly?!??
Posted on 9/21/22 at 6:07 pm to Diseasefreeforall
Brought to you by the same people who said:
Inflation is transitory
Likely won’t see a recession
unlikely to see rate hikes until 2024
In other words, probably better off on assuming the opposite
Inflation is transitory
Likely won’t see a recession
unlikely to see rate hikes until 2024
In other words, probably better off on assuming the opposite
Posted on 9/21/22 at 8:07 pm to Hussss
Data lags, then decisions lag, then policy lags behind that
Never right. Never on time.
Never right. Never on time.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:09 am to Shankopotomus
quote:The Fed has been consistent in its messaging. Investors don't want to believe the Fed and try to time the market bottom. It takes about a year for the impact of policy to propagate throughout the economy. Expect volatility and a slow recovery.
Data lags, then decisions lag, then policy lags behind that
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:07 am to RoyalWe
quote:
The Fed has been consistent in its messaging. Investors don't want to believe the Fed
I've been saying a version of this for a while now, it's why I've scoffed at the idea that the Fed's intention to hit 3.4 by the end of the year is already factored into the market (and I've been proven correct via the large drops any time Powell merely reiterates their goal). Until people stop snorting the pivot/pause hopeum and accept that rates will be at ~3.4 by the end of the year, we're going to continue seeing these big drops followed by successively weakening (generally) attempts at rebounds.
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