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Calm down — A look at recent big downturns in the S&P 500 and the opportunities

Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:13 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
48786 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:13 am



The 2008/2009 recession started showing up when the index was at 1,530 and went down to ~700 more than a year and a half later. That’s a long time of buying opportunities. Then it broke even about four years later. That’s an even longer time of buying opportunities — an additional $24,000 of clearance shares of Roth IRA contributions at lower prices. Then the market went on to gain for years afterwards.







Then in September 2018 there was another big drop in the index. 2,900 to 2,400 from September thru December. Decent little buying opportunity there also. It gained everything back by April 2019.






The Covid market took over in March 2020. The index went from 3,300 in January 2020 to 2,500 at the bottom in March. If you missed out on the previous slump, this was your chance to get in before the huge rebound. It rebounded and was almost 3,400 in August. That gave you six months to get in on the lower prices.



Then it continued to rebound to around 4,800 until the current recession started showing in markets at the end of 2021. Now we’re seeing a huge downturn which means more buying opportunities.

Sure, percentages have increased because of the higher markets over time but you can’t argue with the fact that this downturn is an enormous opportunity for younger guys. I’m 37 years old and even though seeing it makes me sick, I’m still pumping money into retirement accounts each month and each check.

Hopefully this serves to calm some fears among the younger crowd here. For those near or in retirement, I have no answer other than to seek the assistance or wisdom of a good financial advisor with more knowledge than some jackoff on the money board. I really really feel bad for those in or near retirement such as my parents. My dad worked his arse off in the heat and cold for over 40 years to make sure we had what we needed growing up. He didn’t make much money and always put us first. He retired and a few months later my mom got diagnosed with breast cancer, now they have tons of medical bills to pay in retirement and now he sees their retirement - what little was there to begin with - disappearing fast. I legitimately fear that if the market continues to fall while prices continue to skyrocket, myself and siblings have to start assisting them with some things.

If you’re young and still have 10+ years left until retirement, ride this out and continue to contribute as always. You’ll be fine and will come out ahead on the other side.
This post was edited on 6/14/22 at 7:15 am
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38420 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:25 am to
Bro, stocks were pumped due to QE which we can't do anymore. It is a completely different scenario
Posted by bod312
Member since Jul 2015
846 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:29 am to
This time is different....said no one ever....

But to the OP. This is why it is important to have a plan and understand it. When you are nearing/in retirement you should not have 100% of your portfolio in the market but at the same time you cannot afford to have none of it either.
This post was edited on 6/14/22 at 7:30 am
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38420 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:30 am to
Of course we will recover at some point, but if you are not accounting for the fact that the federal reserve has no bullets left in the bag, then I don't know what to tell you.
Posted by bod312
Member since Jul 2015
846 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:37 am to
quote:

if you are not accounting for the fact that the federal reserve has no bullets left in the bag, then I don't know what to tell you.


Accounting for it how? How would I account for that and what would I do? Please explain what I would do from an investment strategy and not from a speculative gambling strategy to account for this "fact".
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38420 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:40 am to
quote:

Please explain what I would do from an investment strategy and not from a speculative gambling strategy to account for this "fact".


The point I am making as this is not like in the past where the fed just drops the interest rate and stocks take off. We don't have the option anymore.

"fact"? please tell me what the federal reserve can do with interest rates at these levels? NOTHING or it is hyper inflation. This is math, not my opinion.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
48786 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:49 am to
The recovery will have to be organic and long. Maybe Trump will get re-elected and wave his magic wand and work some magic again. If nothing else he would instill some confidence in the market, that’s for sure.
Posted by MusclesofBrussels
Member since Dec 2015
4932 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:49 am to
quote:

NOTHING or it is hyper inflation. This is math, not my opinion.


It's always amusing to me how many people here have no fricking idea what hyper inflation actually is. One of the most misused terms on this site
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38420 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:51 am to
quote:

One of the most misused terms on this site


Fair enough. HIGH levels of inflation. Is that better?
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38420 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:52 am to
quote:

The recovery will have to be organic and long.


Yup. Healthy.

I think Trump would restore some confidence.
Posted by bod312
Member since Jul 2015
846 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:55 am to
quote:

The point I am making as this is not like in the past where the fed just drops the interest rate and stocks take off.


The fact that you only think stocks can increase in value is due to dropping interest rates is telling. The fact that you think in the past when the stock market has gone up has only been in low rate environment is telling. You are also implying that when we do lower rates again (which will happen, rates won't just go up for eternity) that the overall market will not be higher than it is today.

The fact that you again are saying this time is different is telling. The fact that you think hyper inflation will occur if we lowered the current 0.75-1% fed funding rate is telling. The fact that you did not answer my original question is telling.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38420 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:58 am to
I'm glad I could give you so much information.

I've been calling a housing peak for the past year and tomorrow I close on my last rental. 100% out of housing in the USA.

Only thing I have been VERY wrong on is Bitcoin. Down about 300k on that.

I'm thankful to have someone like you who can lead the money board in these turbulent times.

Let me guess, you are long housing and stocks here?
Posted by Turf Taint
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2021
6010 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 7:59 am to
Have and stick to your long term investment plan. In it hopefully you considered asset allocation and risk to your objectives.
Black swans happen. Good plans and disciplined behaviors account for them.

Immediate gratification all the time is psychology born from QE. Work on your mindset, not your investment plan.

Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
32648 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:04 am to
Context is so important in analysis like this. These all look the same, bc the controlling mechanism was the same. Since 2008, every time the market has turned down, the Fed or the govt have flooded the market with money. There is no money coming this time to jump start the market

Compare to downturns pre-2008. But the truth is that this downturn is unprecedented. This market is going through withdrawals from being jacked up on free cash for so long. Recovery is a long process for drug addicts, and I think we will see a similar process here. The entire attitude of the market has to change, this isn’t just circumstantial like most downturns
This post was edited on 6/14/22 at 8:08 am
Posted by Enadious
formerly B5Lurker City of Central
Member since Aug 2004
18493 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:25 am to
quote:

but if you are not accounting for the fact that the federal reserve has no bullets left in the bag, then I don't know what to tell you.

You get it. The next step is to go after 401Ks for the money. Meaning more than likely that after the Trump tax laws sunset, taxes will increase exponentially. I hope everyone is away that at one time the highest tax rate was 90%. Don't think that can't happen again.
Posted by DTRooster
Belle River, La
Member since Dec 2013
8865 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:29 am to
To da moon
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
15731 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:31 am to
quote:

You get it. The next step is to go after 401Ks for the money. Meaning more than likely that after the Trump tax laws sunset, taxes will increase exponentially. I hope everyone is away that at one time the highest tax rate was 90%. Don't think that can't happen again.


Watched an old car commercial from the 80's rates were 12.9%.
They were hyping that as low as 12.9% That was an eye opener. Are we headed that way again? Could be.
This post was edited on 6/14/22 at 8:32 am
Posted by bod312
Member since Jul 2015
846 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:15 am to
quote:

You get it. The next step is to go after 401Ks for the money. Meaning more than likely that after the Trump tax laws sunset, taxes will increase exponentially. I hope everyone is away that at one time the highest tax rate was 90%. Don't think that can't happen again.


Go do some research at how many people were paying those actual rates. The effective tax rate was not much different then compared to now and that includes the median, top 10% and top 1%.

Not saying they won't increase taxes just don't be scared by some historical rates without context.
Posted by bod312
Member since Jul 2015
846 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:24 am to
quote:

Let me guess, you are long housing and stocks here?


Again you have provided no alternative investment strategy. I am against sky screamers and people crying wolf without any real substance. What good is crying about the market without substantial discourse around what should you do with said information. I am against bold statements with 0 truth or facts such as claiming hyper inflation if we don't raise above 1% fed funding rate.

Every time there is a bear market, people are saying this time is different. In reality each bear market has specific components that are unique but the general large scale concerns are no different than historical bear markets. I am against timing the market. It has proven over the years to be a losing effort. It is possible to time the market but it is speculative and not an sound investment strategy. It has been shown time and time again that long term holding wins the vast majority of the time (90+%). Even teams of the smartest people in the world can't beat the market over a long enough period of time. They (or you) might beat it short term but long term its a losing proposition.

Of course I am long stocks and housing because the alternative doesn't matter. If the stock market never recovers then we likely have bigger concerns. That is the same thing if houses never appreciate any value.

quote:

I've been calling a housing peak for the past year


And what has happened to the housing market since the last 12 months? What is to say it will go down now? It might but it definitely isn't a certainty. Even this board is pretty darn split over whether prices will fall significantly. Even if prices do fall, who is to say they will fall below the prices from 12 months ago?

quote:

Only thing I have been VERY wrong on is Bitcoin. Down about 300k on that.


You sold for a loss else how are you wrong? Was your specific bitcoin investment strategy to buy when you did and sell it now? What was your plan?
Posted by CorkRockingham
Member since Jun 2017
502 posts
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:39 am to
Just a middle of the road opinion between the two of you. Yes over the long term markets go higher.

It is also true that since 2008 the FED has buoyed the markets via liquidity injections and rapid increases in the money supply.

With inflation taking off, if the old playbook is now not an option, then it bears fruit to think that the market will return to more historical valuations such as those that existed before FED interference.

Just my opinion. I’m not sky screaming but I believe that this is setting up to be a particularly notable market correction. I have lots of cash on the sidelines and know that I have no accurate way of timing the bottom so I shall have to start buying at some point in time. I think more pain is to come but there will come a day when buying is prudent.

I just don’t believe that the time is now. But alas I know that I will be quoted as market timing and chastised. I simply view it as looking at the overall picture. I have no convicting thesis to get long at the present time.
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