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Message

MileHigh Financial Armageddon - back to level 2
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:00 pm
To be clear we are level 2 right now.
---
Back to level 3, seems that the immediate credit crisis clogs are slowly being rebuilt.
-----
Wow, that was a quick trip
Level 4 - Wickedly High - potential for armageddon is high and imminent.
Why?
- Iceland failure
- Russia stock market collapse
- Failure of the coordinated rate cut to free up credit markets.
- Yields on longer term treasuries jumping up. LINK This is the market saying we won't buy your $700b to bail out the banks
- Rumors of a coordinated G7/G8 market closure next week
- Credit markets are still frozen.
Sorry guys.
Level 5 could happen by next Monday, if they really do close the markets next week. That would potentially cause a panic.
---
Back to level 3, seems that the immediate credit crisis clogs are slowly being rebuilt.
-----
Wow, that was a quick trip
Level 4 - Wickedly High - potential for armageddon is high and imminent.
Why?
- Iceland failure
- Russia stock market collapse
- Failure of the coordinated rate cut to free up credit markets.
- Yields on longer term treasuries jumping up. LINK This is the market saying we won't buy your $700b to bail out the banks
- Rumors of a coordinated G7/G8 market closure next week
- Credit markets are still frozen.
Sorry guys.
Level 5 could happen by next Monday, if they really do close the markets next week. That would potentially cause a panic.
This post was edited on 10/24/08 at 11:11 am
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:18 pm to MileHigh
quote:
if they really do close the markets next week.
Is this being discussed? Link?
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:18 pm to MileHigh
Seems like the only folks sitting pretty ATM are the Chinese. They are getting considerable benefits from all this and will continue to do so unless a full blown meltdown occurs and they lose the vast majority of demand for their exports.
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:39 pm to MileHigh
The only thing that has made any sense is the fed jumping into CP to try and help the real economy.
Posted on 10/8/08 at 12:51 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
The only thing that has made any sense is the fed jumping into CP to try and help the real economy.
Yes, and this is exactly why I lowered it to level 3 yesterday.
But it doesn't seem to be having any effect.
Posted on 10/8/08 at 1:01 pm to MileHigh
Peeps is just scared I guess. What kind of rate were they offering it at, assuming they're not sitting around like tools? I haven't seen anything about the details yet.
Posted on 10/8/08 at 1:25 pm to MileHigh
How much cash should I keep on hand?
And will we and should we go back to the gold standard? Would that help at all?
And will we and should we go back to the gold standard? Would that help at all?
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:11 pm to BS
quote:
And will we and should we go back to the gold standard?
What do you suggest the redemption rate should be? $35 an ounce?
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:28 pm to BS
if the gold standard were brought back and the dollar was revalued then gold prices would instantly fall but they would level off and eventually come back up but it would take a long time
there is no easy fix and pretty much everything is going to hurt
there is no easy fix and pretty much everything is going to hurt
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:46 pm to supatigah
Why would they come back up? The gold price would simply be whatever the redemption rate of the gold is, wouldn't it? The dollar would be pegged to gold.
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:47 pm to R2D2Tiger
quote:
Why would they come back up?
finite resource
Posted on 10/8/08 at 3:53 pm to supatigah
Wouldn't gold go through the roof if they did this?
Posted on 10/8/08 at 4:01 pm to supatigah
That would be a problem then, because in order for the gold standard to work the government has to be able to pay whatever it says the dollar is worth. If the dollar gets pegged at $35 per ounce of gold, then gold will be worth $35 per ounce - unless the government is unable to meet that redemption obligation.
We've only got a few hundred billion dollars worth of gold.
We've only got a few hundred billion dollars worth of gold.
Posted on 10/8/08 at 4:05 pm to R2D2Tiger
the way the treasury has been printing money the reconversion to gold is a non-starter anyway
we hold a lot more than that for other countries on our shores
quote:
We've only got a few hundred billion dollars worth of gold.
we hold a lot more than that for other countries on our shores
Posted on 10/8/08 at 4:06 pm to C
quote:
Wouldn't gold go through the roof if they did this?
The gold standard requires pegging the value of the dollar to the value of gold. If this happened - gold would be worth whatever that peg value was, unless the government was unable to meet its obligation to pay the gold.
LINK
Look at the history of gold prices. From 1879-1933 gold was exactly 20.67 an ounce. This is because that was the peg rate set by the government.
In 1933 FDR raised it to 35 an ounce. In 1971 the standard was abandoned and gold sky rocketed.
Posted on 10/13/08 at 5:02 pm to KosmoCramer
who is that in your avatar?
Posted on 10/13/08 at 5:06 pm to Geaux5000
Raven Riley
She's in porn, FWIW. And it's awesome.
She's in porn, FWIW. And it's awesome.
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