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Started By
Message
Hoping that Amazon misses badly. Let's get this meltdown going so we can buy cheap.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 11:45 am
Posted on 2/3/22 at 11:45 am
I love a good meltdown.
Toppy markets that move sideways are useless.
Toppy markets that move sideways are useless.
6
Posted on 2/3/22 at 11:49 am to they call me horse
I've never seen someone want bad news more than you.
You are the worst doomcaster we have.
Why are you the way you are AT? Why?
You are the worst doomcaster we have.
Why are you the way you are AT? Why?
Posted on 2/3/22 at 11:51 am to iAmBatman
quote:
You are the worst doomcaster we have.
HUSSS alter?
Posted on 2/3/22 at 11:57 am to iAmBatman
quote:
I've never seen someone want bad news more than you.
You are the worst doomcaster we have.
Why are you the way you are AT? Why?
Market melts create buying opportunities.
I was thrilled when the market tanked 30 percent in 2020 because it created buying opportunities.
The market has doubled since then.
That's how you make money.
"Why are the way you are AT?"
You will need to convert that to english.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 12:01 pm to iAmBatman
Warren Buffett agrees with me, I think I am in good company.
So for starters, Buffett calls periods of market panic (perhaps like we’ve just witnessed), opportunities. He once said that “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”. That should give you a strong start in understanding how Buffett views these things.
One of his most famous quotes is “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. Again, he is saying that it might be time to get the chequebook out when there is a lot of fear in a market.
Here’s another famous quote from Buffett – “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.
So for starters, Buffett calls periods of market panic (perhaps like we’ve just witnessed), opportunities. He once said that “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”. That should give you a strong start in understanding how Buffett views these things.
One of his most famous quotes is “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. Again, he is saying that it might be time to get the chequebook out when there is a lot of fear in a market.
Here’s another famous quote from Buffett – “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 12:02 pm to they call me horse
We get it.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 12:25 pm to they call me horse
I'm going contrarian with Amazon earnings today. I think they're going to surprise to the upside.
My thesis is that AWS, subscription and advertising* all did fine and that core retail got a big holiday boost from Omicron spiking in December. We've see other retail earnings come in low, and I'm betting that shopping money went to Amazon. I feel like the 2021 holiday season was the last hurrah for the free money spending era of the pandemic.
*I could be wrong on advertising as Meta cited headwinds from iOS security changes and this could partially affect Amazon as well.
They missed pretty badly on their Q3 earnings and lowered expectations for Q4 back in October, so I think this quarter will at least be solid.
My thesis is that AWS, subscription and advertising* all did fine and that core retail got a big holiday boost from Omicron spiking in December. We've see other retail earnings come in low, and I'm betting that shopping money went to Amazon. I feel like the 2021 holiday season was the last hurrah for the free money spending era of the pandemic.
*I could be wrong on advertising as Meta cited headwinds from iOS security changes and this could partially affect Amazon as well.
They missed pretty badly on their Q3 earnings and lowered expectations for Q4 back in October, so I think this quarter will at least be solid.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 1:05 pm to whitefoot
Here’s my thesis on AMZN at this point, but happy to discuss:
Website traffic is up 5% in past 90 days from most traffic sites I can use. Time on the site is also up about 5%. Let’s say that directly translates to a 5% revenue bump from the previous quarter. That would translate to $115M revenue and a huge miss compared to $131M in 4Q2020. The Covid holiday mix from last year seems likely to beat this year.
Like you said, FB’s issues with the new Apple tracking thing are real. And Amazon still gets a lot of its revenue from ads, especially on YouTube. That’s a headwind at this point.
Inflation: PayPal noted inflation as a concern in its earnings going forward. And companies are seeing inflation as a spending issue for lower income families. I’m not sure but inclined to believe that Amazon will be more effected in that same sense. I’m not buying random shite on Amazon if grocery store and gas are 15% higher
Supply chain: Amazon does a ton of sales in electronics. China makes our electronics. Between China factory issues and our port issues, I think this is significant as well. And when I look at Amazon for stuff lately, they seem to be out of stock a lot
UPS: UPS had record revenue Tuesday. I’d imagine a lot of that is due to Amazon, but I’m seeing far more other websites are getting better at online sales compared to 2020 when Amazon had a huge lead on them
Wage inflation: some recent reports about Amazon having to increase wages significantly. This will harm their costs if not passed through. But looking at Amazon products, I don’t see costs being passed through
Net result: don’t feel good about Amazon earnings. I think they’re fine overall, but bad quarter and bad guidance and market overreaction could result in big move
All that said, the earnings estimates are already pretty low
Website traffic is up 5% in past 90 days from most traffic sites I can use. Time on the site is also up about 5%. Let’s say that directly translates to a 5% revenue bump from the previous quarter. That would translate to $115M revenue and a huge miss compared to $131M in 4Q2020. The Covid holiday mix from last year seems likely to beat this year.
Like you said, FB’s issues with the new Apple tracking thing are real. And Amazon still gets a lot of its revenue from ads, especially on YouTube. That’s a headwind at this point.
Inflation: PayPal noted inflation as a concern in its earnings going forward. And companies are seeing inflation as a spending issue for lower income families. I’m not sure but inclined to believe that Amazon will be more effected in that same sense. I’m not buying random shite on Amazon if grocery store and gas are 15% higher
Supply chain: Amazon does a ton of sales in electronics. China makes our electronics. Between China factory issues and our port issues, I think this is significant as well. And when I look at Amazon for stuff lately, they seem to be out of stock a lot
UPS: UPS had record revenue Tuesday. I’d imagine a lot of that is due to Amazon, but I’m seeing far more other websites are getting better at online sales compared to 2020 when Amazon had a huge lead on them
Wage inflation: some recent reports about Amazon having to increase wages significantly. This will harm their costs if not passed through. But looking at Amazon products, I don’t see costs being passed through
Net result: don’t feel good about Amazon earnings. I think they’re fine overall, but bad quarter and bad guidance and market overreaction could result in big move
All that said, the earnings estimates are already pretty low
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 1:22 pm
Posted on 2/3/22 at 1:37 pm to they call me horse
Wait... You think you are the only person that has read quotes from Warren?
You think Warren WANTS the market to crash?
LOL!
You think Warren WANTS the market to crash?
LOL!
Posted on 2/3/22 at 1:39 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
Let’s say that directly translates to a 5% revenue bump from the previous quarter.
Have you tracked the correlation between time on site and sales?
Amazon's ad revenue is a relatively small portion of their earnings, so I don't think the iOS changes will impact their bottom line nearly as much as it did for Facebook.
Supply chain issues is a good point, but supply chain issues exist everywhere, not just Amazon, and consumers still had to get their holiday shopping done. From personal experience, we had to take what we could get when buying presents, but we still had to buy something even if it wasn't the exact model we would have wanted.
I believe inflation has largely been passed through to consumers to this point.
Wage inflation is real, but Amazon has already paid decent wages. I know they will be impacted, but not nearly as much as businesses that rely on being able to pay closer to minimum wage to get adequate workers.
All that said, I don't feel great about anything in this market. It's treacherous right now and any misstep can end in total disaster. But I don't think Amazon misses to the point where we see it totally meltdown like Netflix, Meta, Spotify and PayPal did.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 1:40 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
All that said, the earnings estimates are already pretty low
I will be purchasing a few, and I mean just a few, call spreads on AMZN and SPY (maybe)
I will be sold tomorrow by 9am
Posted on 2/3/22 at 1:41 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
All that said, the earnings estimates are already pretty low
I see you added this after I started my response and I was actually meaning to touch on this and forgot. After Q3, they lowered Q4 guidance, so I felt like expectations were already on the low side.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 2:29 pm to they call me horse
Amazon is already melting in anticipation of an earnings miss.
Not sure how much more downside there would be with a miss, hopefully a lot.
A beat and they probably just get back what they lost today, depending on guidance.
Not sure how much more downside there would be with a miss, hopefully a lot.
A beat and they probably just get back what they lost today, depending on guidance.
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 2/3/22 at 2:41 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Wait... You think you are the only person that has read quotes from Warren?
You think Warren WANTS the market to crash?
LOL!
Are you new at this?
I sure hope so.
Here are a few Buffett quotes for you to begin your education so that you can become a better investor.
Warrren Buffett says that people should celebrate when the market sells off.
Warren Buffett has over 150 billion of Berkshire sitting in cash.
Do you think that he has all of that cash because he loves earning 1 percent on that cash?
Of course not.
He has 150 billion in cash because he wants to do some buying , at lower prices, so yes he actually does want the market to drop.
These Warren Buffett quotes relate to being fearful when stocks drop. Yet, Buffett sees it as an opportunity. Here’s a brief look into how to buy wonderful companies on sale.
“Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases.”
“Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.”
“The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.”
“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.”
“The most common cause of low prices is pessimism—sometimes pervasive, sometimes specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.”
You're Welcome.
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 2:48 pm
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:02 pm to they call me horse
up 11% after hours
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:03 pm to they call me horse
up 17%
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:03 pm to they call me horse
Amazon up 448 after hours.
Revenue miss, but earnings beat.
They might get back to even ytd ha
Guiding lower, doubt 448 will hold.
Revenue miss, but earnings beat.
They might get back to even ytd ha
Guiding lower, doubt 448 will hold.
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:07 pm to they call me horse
quote:
Fourth quarter 2021 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gain of $11.8 billion included in non-operating income from our common stock investment in Rivian Automotive, Inc., which completed an initial public offering in November.
Interesting
quote:
Amazon will increase the price of a Prime membership in the U.S., with the monthly fee going from $12.99 to $14.99, and the annual membership from $119 to $139. This is the first time Amazon has raised the price of Prime since 2018.
Getting time to cancel prime
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:09 pm to they call me horse
quote:
Are you new at this?
I sure hope so.
Here are a few Buffett quotes for you to begin your education so that you can become a better investor.
quote:
Warrren Buffett says that people should celebrate when the market sells off.
That's not the same as rooting for it to happen.
quote:
Warren Buffett has over 150 billion of Berkshire sitting in cash.
Do you think that he has all of that cash because he loves earning 1 percent on that cash?
Has zero to do with what I stated.
quote:
He has 150 billion in cash because he wants to do some buying , at lower prices, so yes he actually does want the market to drop.
No... He is expecting it due to the current environment. That's not rooting for it. That's reading the room.
BTW, I have accumulated cash too. Why? Because I can read the room.
quote:
These Warren Buffett quotes relate to being fearful when stocks drop. Yet, Buffett sees it as an opportunity. Here’s a brief look into how to buy wonderful companies on sale.
Buying low is nothing new.
Like I said... You act like you are the only one who has ever seen Warren. You aren't.
You act like he roots for the market to die. He doesn't. He understands how to trade period. He does what every other seasoned investor does. Buy low and sell high.
You have proven nothing to anybody except for one thing. You come off as a jerk and a-hole.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:13 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
You have proven nothing to anybody except for one thing. You come off as a jerk and a-hole.
Cool story, Good luck in your endeavors.
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