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re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)
Posted on 1/17/22 at 4:56 pm to Pettifogger
Posted on 1/17/22 at 4:56 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Duke, am I reading it right that the GFS is showing like 11 inches of snow for central GA this weekend?
Sounds reasonable for it to show that based on what it's doing.
But...
See how this here image is of a shitshow of disturbances? Models are struggling to parse this, and we have a lot of different solutions on the board. It's rare to have this level of uncertainty on the board in the <100 hr range.
All of that said, getting some snow along and north of I20 across SEC country is what I think ends up happening.
1
Posted on 1/17/22 at 5:00 pm to Duke
That ice threat Saturday into Sunday looks legit. I don't see anything in the GFS that shows 11" of snow for the Atlanta/Central-GA area.
This post was edited on 1/17/22 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 1/17/22 at 5:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
Yeah but numerous ensemble members do have 8-11" in Atlanta. Far more have zero inches.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 5:10 pm to Duke
I was just looking at the 18z GFS because that's what he asked about. Hell, I thought I was losing it and not seeing something. 
Posted on 1/17/22 at 8:54 pm to LegendInMyMind
0z NAM sticking with the freezing rain potential but bringing it all the way down to the coast this run.
This post was edited on 1/17/22 at 8:57 pm
Posted on 1/17/22 at 9:06 pm to trussthetruzz
It also drops temps to freezing a bit earlier than the previous run, but is picking up on the break in precip now. The first round looks to just be cold rain. By the time the second round rolls through, temps are down below freezing.
I'm also not particularly caring for the Northern end of the system. frick freezing rain.
I'm also not particularly caring for the Northern end of the system. frick freezing rain.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 10:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
GFS starting to pick up on freezing rain in SLA
eta: and snow
eta: and snow
This post was edited on 1/17/22 at 10:03 pm
Posted on 1/17/22 at 10:02 pm to LegendInMyMind
I saw a snow accumulation model run that liked like it was showing that but it’s not one I’ve ever looked at before. It’s also changed since
Posted on 1/17/22 at 10:03 pm to LegendInMyMind
00Z GFS coming in a little colder and wetter for South LA Friday... correct if wrong. Looks like its starting to show some wintry mix
Posted on 1/17/22 at 10:07 pm to trussthetruzz
You are correct. Getting close to the 72hr mark. Winter precip likelihood increasing
Posted on 1/17/22 at 10:15 pm to Langland
HUGE change between the 18z and the 00z GFS, backed way off on the low
This post was edited on 1/17/22 at 10:17 pm
Posted on 1/17/22 at 10:45 pm to DVinBR
Meaning what?
Posted on 1/17/22 at 11:00 pm to Impotent Waffle
Meaning colder but drier.
Im sure the southern s/w got captured and didnt trail. Nothing to provide lift to make a low pressure at the surface, just warm air lifting over a front with the energy well north.
Im sure the southern s/w got captured and didnt trail. Nothing to provide lift to make a low pressure at the surface, just warm air lifting over a front with the energy well north.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 11:02 pm to DVinBR
Another thing to look at. CMCE/GEFS (ensembles) have consistently showed some sort of snow depth in our region for the past 7 runs
Posted on 1/17/22 at 11:02 pm to Duke
so no snow basically?
Posted on 1/17/22 at 11:06 pm to chRxis
Yeah, that wouldnt work for gulf coast snow.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 11:07 pm to chRxis
here in CenLA... a lot of these runs want to put everything south of me... which is cruel to me... I wanna see snow
Posted on 1/17/22 at 11:12 pm to Duke
I fricking HATE winter and cold. Hopefully it stays dry. Ice is the devil.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 11:16 pm to Aspercel
Cold weather sustains my soul.
This is the difference, coherent longwave trough vs having some energy trail to spark a surface low that brings precip potential. This solution brings colder air down but leaves nothing to lift up that cold air behind it.
This is in line with the European model.
This is the difference, coherent longwave trough vs having some energy trail to spark a surface low that brings precip potential. This solution brings colder air down but leaves nothing to lift up that cold air behind it.
This is in line with the European model.
Posted on 1/17/22 at 11:19 pm to Duke
quote:
This is the difference, coherent longwave trough vs having some energy trail to spark a surface low that brings precip potential. This solution brings colder air down but leaves nothing to lift up that cold air behind it.
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