PREVIEW: LSU vs Kentucky 6pm ESPN @TheOrchard/PMAC

We back!!! Been a minute since there has been a big time basketball game at full capacity in the PMAC. Sure the bandwagon fans for UK will be out, but we as LSU fans just have to bring it more. Before I get into Kentucky, I would like to take a minute to recap the Auburn game. It's been miserable to see the shite people have been spewing.

Auburn Recap

LSU was without Murray, first true road game in the most hostile place in the SEC, most players have never experienced a road atmosphere...it was too much for our guys on that night.

The loss of Brandon Murray for the game put more stress on Gaines and Pinson. Because of this, they were both asked to do things they haven't done all season. Pinson was not great but was steady, Gaines played one of his worst games of his career. He really killed us

The biggest thing though, LSU only had 2 guys (Pinson and Days) who have ever played in a true road atmosphere. Many of these Freshmen and Sophomores were thrown into a trial by fire situation. Just like Wade said after the game, I'm encouraged by the future of this team. Showed so much heart and grit when they were playing an F game. People can just shite on the team nonstop, but we are a good team. We are going to grow from that experience.

To give some context, In 2015 Duke won the NC. They lost by 16 at home to an NIT Miami team. 2016 Villanova lost by 23 to Oklahoma in an early season tourney, 11 on the road to Virginia. 2017 UNC lost their opening ACC game by double digits to Georgia Tech, double digits to Miami.

My point is, teams lose big, even the BEST who win the NC. It's one game, then you get to have another one soon after, that's why basketball is amazing. It is so hard to play on the road. People need to understand that.

Kentucky
Breakdown of Players

JR F Oscar Tshiebwe 6'9 255 - Simply put, Tshiebwe is one of the most physically dominating rebounders in college basketball. Transfer from West Virginia, he is absolutely killing it at Kentucky. Averaging 15.8ppg, 15.2rpg, shooting 63% from the field. He's averaging 5.7 offensive rebounds per game which is BY FAR the most in the country.

FR G TyTy Washington 6'3 197 - High 5-star blue chipper, TyTy has come into college ballin. Averaging 14ppg, 4.2rpg, 3.9apg, shoots 41% from 3. He can do it all and commands a lot of attention.

SR G Kellan Grady 6'5 205 - 5th year Senior transfer from Davidson. Averaged over 17ppg each of his seasons at Davidson and really was an all around player. At Kentucky, 75% of his shots come from the 3-point line. He's averaging 11.8ppg, and he's 38 for 76 from 3, that's 50% for you counting at home.

JR F Keion Brooks 6'7 210 - 11.3ppg, 4.3rpg. Good player, double digit in scoring 2 years in a row. Not much from the outside. Very good athlete. Hard worker and tough.

JR G Sahvir Wheeler 5'9 180 - Wheeler is an all-sec transfer from Georgia. He absolutely killed LSU last year in 2 games. First game had a double double, second game actually had a triple double. He sucks at shooting 3's, but he's elite at getting into the lane and still manages to score 10.3ppg. Where he really thrives is his 7.8apg, he's 3rd in the country. He makes Kentucky go and Pinson/Gaines will have to stay in front of him.

SR G Davion Mintz 6'3 195 - Transfer from Creighton. Played at Kentucky last season and averaged 11ppg. Only shooting 27% from 3 this year, but he's much better than that. He's averaged 7ppg, 3rpg.

JR F Jacob Toppin 6'9 200 - Brother of Obi Toppin, averages 5ppg, 3rpg. Decent player off the bench.

Kentucky Stats (national Rank)
Offensive
PPG: 83.9 (8th)
FG%: 49.7% (8th)
3P%: 33.6% (168th)
2P%: 56.3% (20th)
FT%: 74.1% (89th)
% of Points from 2: 63.2% (4th)
% of Points from 3: 23% (334th)
% of Points from FT: 13.7% (331st)
APG: 17.6 (10th)
TOPG: 12.0 (82nd)
ORPG: 13.2 (3rd)
Offensive Efficiency: 1.155 (8th)

Defensive

PPG: 60.5 (26th)
FG%: 38% (15th)
2P%: 43.5% (20th)
3P%: 27.2% (16th)
Fouls Per Game: 13.2 (5th)
RPG: 44.9 (1st)
Opponent ORs Per Game: 6.5 (27th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 12.8 (211th)
BPG: 5.2 (28th)
SPG: 7.0 (133rd)
Defensive Efficiency: .832 (9th)

Breakdown

Kentucky, like always, has a very dominant defense. Their offense is predicated on Wheeler driving and kicking and offensive rebounds. They're actually average in shooting from 3, but they do it so very little.

I think there were and are some question marks around this Kentucky team still. Calipari usually schedules multiple highly ranked games early in the season to compete and get his team ready. He started the season vs Duke, but has not played another rank team on the season. They lost on the road to ND (very average team) and they blew the brakes off of an above average UNC team in a weird situation game because of Covid. They really haven't played a tough schedule and I would argue on the road against Auburn to start SEC play is way harder than anything Kentucky has had to deal with.

One thing that sticks out to me, is that Kentucky does not have the length they have had in years past. Tshiebwe is a monster but he's not a huge rim protector. They have length on the wings but underneath LSU should be able to have some success if they stay aggressive.

The player that has to do SOMETHING for me is Efton Reid. He looked lost, scared, downright pathetic vs Auburn. If he connects on even just a few of his inside looks, fights with Kessler for some rebounds a little, it changes the trajectory of that entire game. He will be inside fighting with Tshiebwe and he HAS to do something for us.

Prediction

I'm very curious if Brandon Murray plays. I would expect since he was a game time decision vs Auburn he will be ready. He is a huge piece and will be valuable with his length vs Grady and TyTy. Add in the emergence of Justice Williams and it changes LSU's guard landscape.

It's a 6pm tipoff which is always a weird time for Baton Rouge. Traffic is horrible, late arriving crowd. I expect LSU to come out a bit sluggish (like always), but they battle back. I think Wade has this team trending and they showed vs Auburn they won't ever go away. In home games, this team will be so difficult to beat. I think LSU pulls away late.

LSU - 70
Kentucky 63

Note to Add for Fans:

College basketball is not college football. Most teams, even dominant teams lose 3-5 games in a season. This LSU team is a good physical team. Don't let one game make you discouraged. Come out to the PMAC and get rowdy. Hell, I'm flying down for the week just because I can't miss these next 2 games!! LSU is going to win almost all their games in February and we are going to be a high ranked team in the tourney. BOOT UP!!