Isn't the greatest risk an eleventh hour effort by OU to retain Riley?

First, deductive reason shows it is unlikely that the entire Riley escapade has been invented out of whole cloth by social media and message board users. First, you would have to accept that numerous posters and "insiders" here are all either lying or delusional. Second, and more importantly, you would have to accept that numerous "insiders" on the OU boards are ALSO lying or delusional. Remember, the OU insiders and mods are not claiming that LSU never contacted Riley, but are rather claiming that Riley is not interested or is using LSU to his own advantage. In other words, they are accepting the premise that there have been discussions - directly or through intermediaries - between Riley and LSU. The chances that posters here, posters on other LSU forums, and moderators on OU forums have all been simultaneously afflicted with the same delusion or pathological lie is fairly slim.

Synthesizing the available evidence (tenuous though it may be), I believe that Woodward has contacted Riley and has offered the job. I further think (based on nothing but deduction and the career direction of other candidates) that Riley has informally accepted.

But practically speaking, that acceptance means little. Riley can back out at any point with little or no real consequence, even if there is a signed contract. It's not as if anyone will sue to enforce the abandoned contract. Any liquidated damages clauses or termination fees would presumably be covered by OU.

It seems to me that the greatest risk now is that the OU AD makes a final set of rich, attractive concessions to persuade Riley to stay, especially when the OU fanbase panics, alumni call, boosters complain, and the real disruption of losing Riley becomes imminent and apparent. Riley's entire life is already established in Norman, as is his family, so leaving in the face of a lucrative counteroffer would require strength of character and purpose. It's easier to preserve the status quo. To be clear, I'm not suggesting he would back out, just that it remains a risk.

In any case, I realize this is all speculation to pass the time. Hopefully an announcement comes soon.