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Coaching Searches and Home Run Hires
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:05 am
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:05 am
Every time a school has to replace a coach, whether the coach left on his own or was fired, each fan base seems to think that a plethora of top ten coaching talents will be beating down their door for a chance at the job. However it happens all the time that most of the hires turn out to be from the "B" list of candidates.
I'm looking for help on finding some actual proven, can't miss, home run hires in the last 10 years or so. By a home run hire, I don't mean a guy that turned out to be a great coach (Will Muschamp at Florida, Bob Stoops at Oklahoma, Chip Kelley at Oregon). I'm talking about guys that even rival fan bases knew that this guy was going to do well. I've got...
Nick Saban - Alabama definitely, probably LSU (he wasn't a household name to all in 1999)
Urban Meyer - Florida and Ohio State
Bobby Petrino - Arkansas
Mack Brown - Texas
Kevin Sumlin - Texas A&M (what do you think, yes?)
Bill Snyder - 2nd tour at K State
Steve Spurrier - South Carolina
I'll add Rich Rod to Michigan. It was a home run hire with a strikeout result.
I'm looking for help on finding some actual proven, can't miss, home run hires in the last 10 years or so. By a home run hire, I don't mean a guy that turned out to be a great coach (Will Muschamp at Florida, Bob Stoops at Oklahoma, Chip Kelley at Oregon). I'm talking about guys that even rival fan bases knew that this guy was going to do well. I've got...
Nick Saban - Alabama definitely, probably LSU (he wasn't a household name to all in 1999)
Urban Meyer - Florida and Ohio State
Bobby Petrino - Arkansas
Mack Brown - Texas
Kevin Sumlin - Texas A&M (what do you think, yes?)
Bill Snyder - 2nd tour at K State
Steve Spurrier - South Carolina
I'll add Rich Rod to Michigan. It was a home run hire with a strikeout result.
This post was edited on 12/4/12 at 11:44 am
8
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:08 am to Choupique19
From the Auburn Board, not me. not really entirely what you were looking for, but a start
quote:
Notre Dame - proven head coach smaller school
Alabama - proven SEC head coach
Florida - coordinator, no head coaching experience
Oregon - coordinator, no head coaching experience
Kansas St - coordinator, no head coaching experience (originally)
Stanford - coordinator, no head coaching experience
Georgia - coordinator, no head coaching experience
LSU - previous head coach, mediocre
Texas A&M - proven head coach smaller school
S. Carolina - proven SEC head coach
Oklahoma - coordinator, no head coaching experience
Florida St - coordinator, no head coaching experience
Oregon St - coordinator, no head coaching experience (originally)
Clemson - coordinator, no head coaching experience
Nebraska - coordinator, no head coaching experience
UCLA - previous NFL head coach, mediocre
Michigan - proven head coach smaller school
Northwestern - position coach, no head coaching experience
Louisville - coordinator, no head coaching experience
Texas - proven head coach
So the count of the BCS schools in the current Top 25 BCS standings...
12 - coordinator, no head coaching experience
3 - proven head coach smaller school
2 - proven SEC head coach
1 - previous NFL head coach, mediocre
1 - previous head coach, mediocre
1 - proven head coach
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:08 am to Choupique19
I agree with all but
as he came from CUSA with limited experience as a HC overall. I would give him time to see. It wasn't like an "oh wow" sort of hire. He is and will be great though.
quote:
Kevin Sumlin - Texas A&M (what do you think, yes?)
as he came from CUSA with limited experience as a HC overall. I would give him time to see. It wasn't like an "oh wow" sort of hire. He is and will be great though.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:09 am to Choupique19
Saban at bama
Meyer at osu
Petrino at ark
The others mehh, sumlin wasnt a homerun. Him and fedora were both borderline at that point
Meyer at osu
Petrino at ark
The others mehh, sumlin wasnt a homerun. Him and fedora were both borderline at that point
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:11 am to Choupique19
Home run hires can only occur if the Coach wants to move.
If Saban had not gone to Dolphins, he would have stayed at LSU forever. Alabama had the opening, he took it. If instead of Bama, AU, UGA, Florida or UT had been hiring in 2006, then Saban would likely have chosen one of those programs.
If Saban had not gone to Dolphins, he would have stayed at LSU forever. Alabama had the opening, he took it. If instead of Bama, AU, UGA, Florida or UT had been hiring in 2006, then Saban would likely have chosen one of those programs.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:12 am to Choupique19
Saban to LSU was a B hire
Sumlin was NOT a home run 12 months ago
Sumlin was NOT a home run 12 months ago
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:17 am to LSUTIGER in TEXAS
quote:
Saban to LSU was a B hire
I definitely knew of Saban, because after LSU beat him in the Independence Bowl, I would hear his name mentioned for NFL jobs like every year, even though most of his teams at Michigan St were 7-5ish until his last one. I think people in the college football world would have called it a home run hire, but many of the fans, especially in Baton Rouge, weren't sure about it. I guess we should have gone with Dennis Erickson.
quote:
Sumlin was NOT a home run 12 months ago
I can see that. I know that I felt his offense would have trouble in the SEC after seeing Houston demolished by USM and Penn St in consecutive games to end last season.
You know who I thought was a home run hire but turned out a dumpster fire????
Rich Rod to Michigan.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:24 am to Choupique19
Not exactly what you are talking about here but I saw this post on an Arkansas board a few months back and it was pretty sobering in regards to how few of BCS coaches actually leave their jobs for other BCS jobs.
quote:
The first thing I looked at was how many coaches in the past 5 years left BCS jobs for other BCS jobs. The number was so staggeringly small (not even what I expected) that I went back 10 years thinking it might be an anomaly. However, the number was virtually the same for the next 5 years so I think that I have a good sample size for what I was looking to examine.
I really think this will surprise most of you.
The data is listed out by year, number of coaches that went from BCS to BCS jobs, number of BCS openings total and finally who made the move.
Here's the results of my findings:
2012: 1 - 14 - Graham from Pitt to Arizona St
2011: 1 - 14 - Edsall from UConn to Maryland
2010: 2 - 11 - Kelly from Cincinnati to ND, Kiffen from Tennessee to USC
2009: 1 - 11 - Chizik from Iowa St to Auburn
2008: 1 - 11 - Rodriguez from West Virginia to Michigan
2007: 2 - 12 - O'Brien from BC to NC State, Dantonio from Cincinnati to Michigan St.
2006: 0 - 4
2005: 2 - 12 - Miles from Okie St to LSU, Harris from Pitt to Stanford
2004: 0 - 5
2003: 3 - 10 - Morris from Kentucky to Baylor, JLS from UL to Michigan State, Franchione from Bama to A&M
Total: 13 - 114
-7 of those 13 went from Big East jobs to other BCS jobs.
-2 of the remaining 6 went back to schools where they were previously a coordinator. (Chizik & Kiffen)
-Only 4 of 114 job openings had a power 5 conference coach go to another power 5 job with no previous connections to that school.
So basically going off the last 10 years of data, there is a 3.5% chance that we hire a current HC from one of the big 5 conferences.
The rest of the openings were filled from either non-AQ head coaches, BCS coordinators, previous NFL head/assistant coaches or previous BCS coaches out of work.
Now people must understand that even Bobby Petrino, Nick Saban, Mark Richt, Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, Brett Bielema, Brady Hoke and Chip Kelly would be in that everyone else category so this isn't condemning us to a bad hire. It just means that guys like Strong, Diaz, Doeren, Hudspeth, Chryst, insert fired NFL head coach, Roman or another NFL assistant, Butch Davis, Paul Petrino, Garrick McGee and Malzahn are much more likely candidates than guys like Dantonio, London, Sarkisian, Briles, Patterson and Holgorsen.
This post was edited on 12/4/12 at 10:26 am
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:40 am to TheCheshireHog
quote:
NYC Auburn
quote:
TheCheshireHog
That's exactly the kind of info I was looking for. Thanks
If your team has a coaching search it's always very exciting at the beginning, and then after you get turned down once or twice it's not so fun.
But, sometimes teams do find that right coordinator, or non-AQ head coach, or some other diamond in the rough.
Good luck to all!!
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:50 am to Choupique19
quote:
after seeing Houston demolished by USM and Penn St in consecutive games to end last season.
uh, what?
Houston demolished PSU 30-14 en route to Keenum throwing for 532 yards on a defense that averaged 162.
USM did beat houston, but offense wasn't the problem for UH. That D was horrendous.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:51 am to Choupique19
quote:add him to the home run list. he was a cant miss hire. i dont know how it went so wrong, but he was supposed to revolutionize the B10. everyone, including myself, was wrong on him
You know who I thought was a home run hire but turned out a dumpster fire????
Rich Rod to Michigan.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:52 am to Choupique19
Brian Kelly was thought to be a sure thing for ND IIRC?
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:55 am to TheCheshireHog
quote:
The first thing I looked at was how many coaches in the past 5 years left BCS jobs for other BCS jobs. The number was so staggeringly small (not even what I expected) that I went back 10 years thinking it might be an anomaly. However, the number was virtually the same for the next 5 years so I think that I have a good sample size for what I was looking to examine.
I really think this will surprise most of you.
The data is listed out by year, number of coaches that went from BCS to BCS jobs, number of BCS openings total and finally who made the move.
Here's the results of my findings:
2012: 1 - 14 - Graham from Pitt to Arizona St
2011: 1 - 14 - Edsall from UConn to Maryland
2010: 2 - 11 - Kelly from Cincinnati to ND, Kiffen from Tennessee to USC
2009: 1 - 11 - Chizik from Iowa St to Auburn
2008: 1 - 11 - Rodriguez from West Virginia to Michigan
2007: 2 - 12 - O'Brien from BC to NC State, Dantonio from Cincinnati to Michigan St.
2006: 0 - 4
2005: 2 - 12 - Miles from Okie St to LSU, Harris from Pitt to Stanford
2004: 0 - 5
2003: 3 - 10 - Morris from Kentucky to Baylor, JLS from UL to Michigan State, Franchione from Bama to A&M
Total: 13 - 114
-7 of those 13 went from Big East jobs to other BCS jobs.
-2 of the remaining 6 went back to schools where they were previously a coordinator. (Chizik & Kiffen)
-Only 4 of 114 job openings had a power 5 conference coach go to another power 5 job with no previous connections to that school.
So basically going off the last 10 years of data, there is a 3.5% chance that we hire a current HC from one of the big 5 conferences.
The rest of the openings were filled from either non-AQ head coaches, BCS coordinators, previous NFL head/assistant coaches or previous BCS coaches out of work.
Now people must understand that even Bobby Petrino, Nick Saban, Mark Richt, Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, Brett Bielema, Brady Hoke and Chip Kelly would be in that everyone else category so this isn't condemning us to a bad hire. It just means that guys like Strong, Diaz, Doeren, Hudspeth, Chryst, insert fired NFL head coach, Roman or another NFL assistant, Butch Davis, Paul Petrino, Garrick McGee and Malzahn are much more likely candidates than guys like Dantonio, London, Sarkisian, Briles, Patterson and Holgorsen.
quote:nice, dude
TheCheshireHog
Posted on 12/4/12 at 10:55 am to Linkovich
quote:yes. everyone knew he was a real good coach. the question was: can you still win big at ND
Brian Kelly was thought to be a sure thing for ND IIRC?
Posted on 12/4/12 at 11:07 am to Moustache
quote:
uh, what?
Houston demolished PSU 30-14 en route to Keenum throwing for 532 yards on a defense that averaged 162.
Yeeaaahhhh, that was early New Year's morning. I might have been a little woozy.
To me...
Posted on 12/4/12 at 11:25 am to Choupique19
I think Spurrier to USC in 2005 can be defined as a home run hire. Proven SEC head coach, national profile, etc.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 11:43 am to jackmanusc
quote:
I think Spurrier to USC in 2005 can be defined as a home run hire. Proven SEC head coach, national profile, etc.
Yes, added to original post.
Posted on 12/4/12 at 12:16 pm to Choupique19
Another 'homerun' to possible strikeout: the Kiffins to USC. Sure, Lane wasn't considered superbly diplomatic or likable, but he was considered something of a boy-genius (how the hell else does he land an NFL gig, Tennessee, and then USC before the age of 40?). And Monte was supposed to be the sure thing; USC talent with his coaching was gonna equal top-5 defense.
They're getting scorched this year, and Lane has made some seriously bone-headed calls (see the Notre Dame game).
They're getting scorched this year, and Lane has made some seriously bone-headed calls (see the Notre Dame game).
Posted on 12/4/12 at 12:27 pm to Choupique19
quote:
Houston demolished by USM and Penn St
Didnt Houston win the bowl game against Penn St??
Posted on 12/4/12 at 12:34 pm to Choupique19
quote:Yes
Nick Saban - Alabama definitely
quote:No
Nick Saban - probably LSU
quote:No. Everyone thought he would flop and his offense wouldn't do jack shite.
Urban Meyer - Florida
quote:Yes
Urban Meyer - Ohio State
Bobby Petrino - Arkansas
Mack Brown - Texas
Steve Spurrier - South Carolina
quote:I say no. Most people thought Sumlin's HUNH offense wouldn't do shite in the SEC. Mainly the reason why they were predicted to go 6-6 this year. And that Snyder was over the hill. A thought reinforced when he was 13-12 overall & 7-9 in conference after his first two years.
Kevin Sumlin - Texas A&M (what do you think, yes?)
Bill Snyder - 2nd tour at K State
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