Lreynolds

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I predict this will be the lowest duck survey released by the state in years when it's released later this week.

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I don't think we are going to get the survey completed in SE LA or Catahoula Lake because of weather. We've been delayed getting airborne by fog and dodged storms thus far this week to get the first 17 westernmost lines flown (the SW LA portion of the coastal transects), and it's been a ghost town.

Estimates in just SW LA:

Mallards - 2000
Mottled ducks - 14,000
Gadwall - 96,000
Wigeon - 1,000
Greenwings - 10,000
Bluewings - 67,000
Shovelers - 37,000
Pintails - 5,000
Ringnecks - 15,000

Total ducks - 247,000

And here are some preliminary comments:

The 247,000 total ducks estimated in SW LA is the lowest on record for this survey, and is less than half the next lowest estimate of 581,000 in 2013. The most recent 10-year average for SW LA on this survey is 994,000.

The most recent 10 year November averages for SW LA are: gadwalls (463,000), greenwings(145,000), bluewings (175,000), pintails (51,000), and shovelers (83,000).

This November’s SW LA estimates for gadwalls and greenwings have never been lower. In the last 10 years, estimates for bluewings and shovelers have only been lower once. These data indicate there has not yet been a major migration into coastal SW LA.

One small flock of white-fronted geese were the only geese seen during this portion of the survey.

We have not yet flown SE LA transects or the cruise survey at Catahoula Lake, and predicted weather suggests we may not be able to prior to the season opening this Saturday in the West and Coastal Zones.

There have been a lot of folks posting photos with over-limits of scaup this year. The daily bag limit is 3 so be careful, and know that LE is watching the forums as well. One of my good friends and 3 partners hunted near Delacroix this morning. They all limited on scaup and didn't get another species.

In most years and in most places, over-bagging scaup is a rarity. But for whatever reason, in some years, our scaup kill goes out the roof. During those years, scaup are found in far more places than normal, we shoot a lot of adults, and get a pulse of recoveries from long-banded birds. It seems that the population becomes vulnerable compared to prior years. This year seems to be one of those years. At my lease, for example, we killed more scaup the opening weekend of the first split than had been killed total in the prior 10 seasons.

I never know about totals until I see what the other observer counts and crunch the numbers, but we saw a lot more mallards on the first 11 lines yesterday vs November, and a huge number of birds between Little Pecan and Grand Lake, and north of White Lake. Catahoula Lake wasn't spectacular, but it was better than November, especially at the south end where pintails, ringnecks, and cans were stacked up. Still got 17 lines to fly and we are a half-day behind because of aircraft breakdown.

I'm in the air now. Last week's WMA survey showed a big increase in birds, including big concentrations of birds at the mouth of the river and the highest number at Rockefeller in 15 years.

Expectations are high for this survey, but we'll see.

Survey is scheduled for Wednesday, so I would expect data by mid-day Thursday and the full November report by Friday morning. If you are on my electronic distribution list, you'll get all reports as soon as they are complete. If you aren't and want to be, send me an email and I'll add you to the list. Lreynolds@wlf.la.gov

Send me your e-mail address, and I'll add you, and anyone else, to my electronic distribution list.

Dennis Anderson is a long-time waterfowl alarmist. In the mid-80's it was illegal harvest in Louisiana that was driving waterfowl populations down, and he did a big piece that generated enough donations to buy a helicopter and send it to LE in Louisiana to "save the ducks". In the early-90's he was part of the "we're killing too many ducks" crowd and implored the USFWS to close the season (as did Delta Waterfowl) to "save the ducks". This is more of the same.

We use the same data to set the waterfowl seasons now as we always have. There are planes/observers in the air and crews on the ground to estimate the Bpop and ponds. You can read their reports yourself at www.flyways.us while they conduct the largest, most scientifically sound wildlife survey on the planet. The July brood survey was discontinued nearly 30 years ago because it didn't provide any additional value for the season-setting process, but we still use the pond counts affected by the drought.

The only thing new in the article is that we set the seasons using past year's data now. But that is because of limitations in federal law making (NEPA compliance, public comment periods, and review by federal Solicitor's Office) that we used to be able to short-cut but have faced legal challenges. Canada has set seasons a year in advance for decades, and now they set them for 2 years at a time. And as we all know, duck populations have never responded to changes in hunting regulations, much less in 1 year, so is it really a big deal?

The real BS in the article is that 1) some waterfowl managers are considering being done with harvest regulations altogether because they don't influence waterfowl populations and 2) that we continue to set liberal seasons to keep hunters in the field. First, it's only hunting regulations within the historic bounds that we know have little effect on populations. We have no experience with unlimited or completely closed seasons, so no manager anywhere thinks we should get rid of hunting regulations. Second, we now have firm evidence that liberal hunting regulations don't keep hunters in the field, and that hunter satisfaction increases with their kill until you get to 4 ducks; that 5th or 6th duck doesn't lead to any real increase in satisfaction. So why a bag limit of 6?

Because it's scientifically defensible, that's why.

Lastly, you all know the score ..... large-scale population estimates/habitat conditions do NOT dictate local hunting success. It seems that nothing is working FOR us in Louisiana, but many forces are working AGAINST us. Coastal wetland loss, loss and emigration of rice agriculture, advances(changes) in agricultural practices, climate change, invasive aquatics, etc. are all reducing the attractiveness and capacity of Louisiana habitats to support waterfowl. Some, like climate change and agricultural practices, are driving similar changes in birds wintering further north in Russia, Europe, the Middle East ..... everywhere in the northern hemisphere. I'm sometimes surprised at the ducks I continue to count from the plane every fall/winter, and what we have is still pretty special.

Sorry for the long-winded rant, but the "rules" for setting the season are clear, and the data is the same as it's always been. I'm going to a flyway meeting in August, and using the BPop, ponds, harvest, and banding data, we are going to set the framework for the 2018-19 season. I'll be giving a presentation on that and other Waterfowl Section stuff to the Commission the first Thursday in September.

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The head of the watefowl program for the State posts here. Seems like a perfect place to discuss.

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But my posts are about the current research survey effort, and a response to specific related questions, like YOURS or "what for?".

Otherwise, thus far it isn't a discussion, but YOUR (not our) personal gripe session.

Not that I disagree with your contention that allocation of resources to LDWF WMAs is insufficient .......

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I was more so talking about big game hunters but either way I love that there are people out there taking the pulse of hunters and paying attention to it

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Ahhhh, OK. You exposed my one-dimensional mind ....

This is my first foray outside of waterfowl-hunter surveys. Conceptually, the goal is the same: get the best harvest estimates for the least amount of $$. But I was indeed seeing feathers and not fur in interpreting your comment.

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May I make a suggestion? Hunters need to be surveyed on seasons and dates.

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They have been, a number of times. 2005, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2015. On those surveys, questions on season length, timing, zones, bag limits, etc. have been asked. And what we primarily find is that hunters do NOT speak with one voice on virtually anything.

Groups of hunters in NW and SW Louisiana want earlier seasons, saying that January hunt days are worthless.

Groups of hunters in the rice prairies and the woods of NE LA want later seasons say exactly the opposite, that they have no birds until mid-December.

There is a growing group of hunters that prefer to hunt when we traditionally have the split because those are good "flight" or migration days.

Very few hunters have expressed a desire for shorter seasons or lower bag limits, but most everyone wants something "different" based on their local situation. And we have made some changes, and those don't satisfy either ...... like the new East Zone boundary where rice-field hunters got later seasons.

One of the best examples is the new West Zone created in 2012 by splitting the old West Zone into a West Zone and a Coastal Zone. Hunters supported the new zone in NW LA so they could have separate seasons from the coastal guys. It made sense. NW LA is reservoirs and piney woods, different from coastal marshes and prairies and the MAV hardwoods and swamps. But after we made the new zone, we found out that some hunters supported it so they could have LATER seasons and other supported it so they could have EARLIER seasons. And guess what? For the last 2 seasons, the best compromise was (is) to have the same season dates as the Coastal Zone.