thetruth

quote:

---

So then you would consider evaluating the perception of last year as not being near a title? They finished above ND which actually did play for one. Under your perception model this perception isn’t valid but the perceptions of 10 years ago are? So my question remains.

---

Last year they were in the hunt. They didn't win a division, Conference or Natty. They come within the same this year *edited from last year* they are trending , then they are in the conversation of not being overrated. Just like Ark around 2011. They lost to the 1 & 2 team in the nation that year. Good year but not great.

quote:

---

My next question is do you think the playoff committee will snub the Aggies twice?

---

Depends on who they lost to and by how much. We are all vulnerable to being snubbed by the ND biased (another overrated program). But if Jimbo is in the conversation again, then A&M will be looked as a legit powerhouse. However, the only way that it will be viewed as a snub is if you win the West and lose to the East in the Championship game. Bama snuck in because they are Bama.

quote:

---

I agree with some of this. Data more than 3 years ago is irrelevant and actually many times opposed to betting odds. So your system is opposed to itself.

---

Not at all, the case. You gather probabilities on past evidence. Thats Bayesian! There are externalities that play a factor in those probabilities more than just three years or the current football staff. Look at Texas, they are seen as underachieving because of their past. I think that is your issue in this. You are seeing only three years when everyone else is seeing a decade of evidence. Same with GA. For years both teams have been saying they are a top tier team but have very little to prove it. Every year people look at their recruiting, but nothing to show. A&M's best shots where with Manziel and a STOUT offensive line. Nothing. Last year you had a great defense and the most experienced QB in the league. Last year was your year. Nothing. Until you show that you can win something, a la LSU 2003, the betting odds are that you won't. Even with the talent you have. You won't.

There is your answer, win a Championship with your talent and highly priced coach. Until then, you are the same Texas A & M from the last 10 years. Maybe its culture, facilities, location, or the fact that some athletes cant get attendance. All of which play a factor.

quote:

---

If they do a repeat of last year this year, are they still overrated then?

Because neither out come is certain. On one hand last year seems like an anomaly but in the other there are reasons for said outcome (new coach and such).

I’m just wondering what trend of data influences this opinion? Two 1 loss season. Three? Four?

Or is this an opinion that will never be fairly evaluated on recent data?

---

Well its the case of Bayesian Probability. Your coach and fan base talk about how y'all are going to win a national championship, "Beat Alabama's arse" per Jimbo, and exaggerate your seasons accomplishments. For instance, last year. Y'all think y'all had an amazing season! Y'all beat Vandy by 5, didn't even get a sip of Gatorade before you lost to Bama, pulled an upset of Fla you should have lost like LSU., and beat the dumpster fire that was LSU last year. It was a good season yes. But you showed all season that you were very vulnerable and if you played a decent team you would lose. Thats overrated. Every fall, you start the season playing next to no one. Like this year. You should be undefeated by the time you get to Bama. Your team will barely make it through the first games, make Colorado fans believe they have a have decent team, etc. But the networks will give you a top 10 rating. You will lose 3 games this year, bank on it. Jimbo is overrated (look at FSU after you lose an NFL QB, WR, RB, S, etc.). And before you talk about Coach O, just remember you started the thread about A&M being overrated, not LSU or Coach O. The verdict is this year for Coach O.

I digress about Bayesian Probability. Its the probability of what you perceive should happen. Every year, your team's fanbase, coaches and sometimes the polls, put up high expectations of winning probability. Others, change the perception of this and start noticing you and rate you has a potential great team. Your team flounders and fails when they shouldn't to teams that are underrated. So at the beginning of every season until September, people think a lot of you when really you are just a middle of the road SEC team (look at your past SEC records). Until you break through, you don't deserve to be considered over GA (also traditionally overrated but wins divisions), Auburn, Florida, or LSU. You are the 3/4/5 best team in the West.

LSU is different, you win a Natty, your fan base always remembers that championship year. To me, I would rather go winless for 9 years and win a championship 1. GA and A&M, your fans don't have that year. Until you do, you are at best a gate keeper. Thus being overrated. When something or at least be in the conversation for more than one year and you will meet expectations.

Just the opinion of a statistician.

Ill say this. Coming from Louisiana and moving to Austin, LA is out. Austin/Texas is great with brisket, never had St. Louis or Memphis BBQ, love the sauce in the Carolinas, loved Woodrows and The Shed. Cant wait to see everyone else opinion.

yeah, Dad is a basketball coach and gets fired from school. Dad gets salty and gets his son to leave them for his senior year. Dad shops him around and they find HHS. So the dad and son rent an apartment near HHS so the dad can be an assistant coach and the kid can go to HHS. LHSAA rule is that your sole residence has to be in district to be immediately eligible. Their house in Houma as been "on sale" for a while and no one wants to buy it. Coincidentally, the mom and younger brother still live in the house and the younger brother goes to the elementary that feeds to the original high school. I guess it would be okay to pull the younger brother out of school mid-year if they sell the house. Because of this the LHSAA says he has to sit out a year. If he would have went to the local public school, he would have been eligible.

Looks like the graveyard shift of any Waffle House on the Alabama/Florida border.

Im going with Kieland Williams Calves!

he was a good corner, but was he that good?
LINK