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How long until large SSDs become the same price as equally sized HDDs?

Posted on 9/9/20 at 1:05 pm
Posted by PhilipMarlowe
Member since Mar 2013
21090 posts
Posted on 9/9/20 at 1:05 pm
And when I say large I mean in the 6-10+TB range. I’m assuming it’s still several years away, but was curious.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29002 posts
Posted on 9/9/20 at 1:42 pm to
No one can predict the future, and flash memory prices are very much subject to supply/demand and boom/bust cycles. They are well within "striking distance" already, though I doubt they will ever truly match magnetic storage on $/TB.

Simple economics tells us that since SSDs have advantages over HDDs (speed, physical size, durability, energy consumption), and HDDs have zero advantages over SSDs (other than cost), then at the same price per TB very nearly zero HDDs will be sold since they are functionally equivalent. In other words, the price/TB of HDDs must always be lower than that of SSDs, otherwise HDDs will not be produced.
Posted by CAD703X
Liberty Island
Member since Jul 2008
86950 posts
Posted on 9/9/20 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

HDDs have zero advantages over SSDs (other than cost)


he's speaking the God's honest truth you know.

i agree. magnetic hard drives feel so 1980s/1990s. very little has changed with the tech other than they are faster, quieter and cheaper and just as likely to fail as they were 30 years ago.
Posted by PhilipMarlowe
Member since Mar 2013
21090 posts
Posted on 9/9/20 at 2:31 pm to
quote:

Simple economics tells us that since SSDs have advantages over HDDs (speed, physical size, durability, energy consumption), and HDDs have zero advantages over SSDs (other than cost), then at the same price per TB very nearly zero HDDs will be sold since they are functionally equivalent. In other words, the price/TB of HDDs must always be lower than that of SSDs, otherwise HDDs will not be produced.




I should’ve asked the question in a different way. Ultimately I’m wondering when, or if, an 8tb SSD will cost about $215? which is more or less what an 8tb HDD costs today.
Posted by TAMU-93
Sachse, TX
Member since Oct 2012
1077 posts
Posted on 9/9/20 at 2:34 pm to
I think you'll see 8TB SSD for $200 in about five years.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29002 posts
Posted on 9/9/20 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

I should’ve asked the question in a different way. Ultimately I’m wondering when, or if, an 8tb SSD will cost about $215? which is more or less what an 8tb HDD costs today.
Ah, so yeah if the above poster is right then 2025's SSDs will match 2020's HDDs in price/tb. Hard to say how accurate that is for many reasons, but if we look at today's 1TB SSDs priced around $0.10/GB, that matches HDD $/GB from around 2010, so 10 years lag. It's possible the lag can be cut to 5 years given the relative rates of advancement, I guess.
Posted by Fat Batman
Gotham City, NJ
Member since Oct 2019
1558 posts
Posted on 9/9/20 at 3:27 pm to
...and then the question the OP will be asking is, "When will 'X' become the same price as equally sized SSDs?" And the circle continues .
Posted by PhilipMarlowe
Member since Mar 2013
21090 posts
Posted on 9/9/20 at 5:42 pm to
Truth.

Thanks all for the input.
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