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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 6/23/14 at 9:19 am to Gcockboi
So this is like the opposite of 2009. Literally everything would have to go WRONG the last night for us to not advance.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 9:34 am to Gcockboi
I think Portugal beats Ghana.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 9:37 am to SwaggerCopter
Is everyone going to ignore me?
Those squares do not all have the same probability.
For instance the odds that we beat Germany 3-0 and we lose to Germany 2-1 are not the same.
The way he does the math, every square has a 0.39‰ chance of happening, which just isn't the case.
Those squares do not all have the same probability.
For instance the odds that we beat Germany 3-0 and we lose to Germany 2-1 are not the same.
The way he does the math, every square has a 0.39‰ chance of happening, which just isn't the case.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 9:43 am to SwaggerCopter
quote:
Is everyone going to ignore me?
Those squares do not all have the same probability.
For instance the odds that we beat Germany 3-0 and we lose to Germany 2-1 are not the same.
The way he does the math, every square has a 0.39‰ chance of happening, which just isn't the case.
Good grief. YES!
Check this instead for an actual statistical analysis of our chances to advance:
More like a 75.7% chance...
Posted on 6/23/14 at 10:19 am to SwaggerCopter
quote:
For instance the odds that we beat Germany 3-0 and we lose to Germany 2-1 are not the same.
How do propose introducing ways to capture this phenomenon mathematically?
You would have to use some measure of "team quality" which would be inherently subjective (note: This is what Nate Silver did).
But to be even more accurate, you would also need a "match-up" variable, which is hard to construct for the same reasons as above (subjectivity), and also because we won't know the lineups until several hours before kickoff.
So....what do you propose we do? Just accept that the numbers are skewed a bit high and move on.
This post was edited on 6/23/14 at 10:21 am
Posted on 6/23/14 at 10:22 am to Gcockboi
That chart is kind of scary actually.
I feel like Germany is a solid favorite over US and Ghana is a favorite over a tired and possibly nothing to play for Portugal.
Too many scenarios where even 1 goal Germany and Ghana victories sends US home.
I feel like Germany is a solid favorite over US and Ghana is a favorite over a tired and possibly nothing to play for Portugal.
Too many scenarios where even 1 goal Germany and Ghana victories sends US home.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 10:23 am to TxTiger82
I propose that we throw it out. Just because it gives us a high number that may be close to right doesn't mean it is close to an accurate way to predict. 2x2 is 4. If I thought the x meant I add the numbers, I would still get 4. But I would also think 2x3 was 5.
It could at least factor in how common certain results are in the World Cup.
It could at least factor in how common certain results are in the World Cup.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 10:26 am to SwaggerCopter
quote:
I propose that we throw it out.
Eh, well, game still has to be played so everything will work itself out. Nothing wrong with considering the possibilities. Perhaps some of these models take things too far - too many variables not accounted for.
Posted on 6/23/14 at 10:53 am to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
No collusion though, I don't trust those bastards.
Yep, ask Neville Chamberlain about trusting Germans.
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