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Is possession % overrated?
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:10 pm
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:10 pm
The results from today's games got me thinking. Certain teams really value possession, but there were several instances today where the percentages were around 60:40 with the 40% team coming out on top.
6
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:17 pm to cwil177
Well, I certainly would not just look at one day of results. I think fans of a possession-based squad could overvalue it, but I would assume possession correlates well with winning.
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:19 pm to cwil177
In all of those games, the team with the most shots on goal won.
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:21 pm to cwil177
What stands out to me is that the team higher up on the table won each game.
If a team can move quickly with the ball, then yes possession % is overrated.
ETA: We shall see when two teams averaging ~54% possession play each other tomorrow
If a team can move quickly with the ball, then yes possession % is overrated.
ETA: We shall see when two teams averaging ~54% possession play each other tomorrow
This post was edited on 4/5/14 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:45 pm to cwil177
Like virtually every other statistic in soccer, it can be meaningless in the absence of context.
Posted on 4/5/14 at 10:49 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
I would assume possession correlates well with winning.
It does in La Liga, though I imagine that it might be stronger in other leagues.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 12:04 am to cwil177
Theoretically it isn't. Possession football is meant to tire out opponents by having them chase the ball. It's also used to twist space to create openings in the defense.
But, the statistic, without context, probably means nothing. If the defending team refuses to chase the ball, then the statistic won't necessarily indicate much.
However, you can watch a Liverpool match pretty easily to see how effective it is. Rodgers knows that the league has become effective of defending against possession teams. So LFC go HARD at the beginning of matches to try and get an early goal. If that is accomplished, it forces the opposing team to chase the ball, and before they know it, it's 5-0.
But, the statistic, without context, probably means nothing. If the defending team refuses to chase the ball, then the statistic won't necessarily indicate much.
However, you can watch a Liverpool match pretty easily to see how effective it is. Rodgers knows that the league has become effective of defending against possession teams. So LFC go HARD at the beginning of matches to try and get an early goal. If that is accomplished, it forces the opposing team to chase the ball, and before they know it, it's 5-0.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 12:43 am to cwil177
It's like time of possesion in football. If you have the ball more than your opponent, chances are you will have more opportunities to score. But if your possesion in the final third is complete shite, then yes it is a worthless stat for you.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:12 am to rdw1690
In the context of Swansea this season possession means crap when you have the leagues worst passing percentage in the final third.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:16 am to LSUSOBEAST1
Brendan Rodgers will be a solid manager for Bayern Munich when Pep moves in a few years.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 10:27 pm to hendersonshands
quote:
Brendan Rodgers will be a solid manager for Bayern Munich when Pep moves in a few years.
Dream on, dog. B-Rizzle is retiring in Scouse red.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 10:38 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 10:28 pm to BleedPurpleGold
Thomas Tuchel is my first and second choice so doesn't really bother me. Tweezy thinks Rodgers would be a good choice and I'd just enjoy the speculation to frick with you.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 10:37 pm to hendersonshands
quote:
Tweezy thinks Rodgers would be a good choice and I'd just enjoy the speculation to frick with you.
I won't get rattled about this one. I've never felt so confident that a member of my club will stay the course.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 10:47 pm to BleedPurpleGold
quote:
I won't get rattled about this one
doesn't mean I won't try
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:11 pm to hendersonshands
quote:
doesn't mean I won't try
Bring it.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:20 pm to BleedPurpleGold
Rodgers is immersed in studying Spanish (since foreigners needn´t learn Catalán).
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 11:21 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 11:25 pm to rdw1690
quote:
It's like time of possesion in football. If you have the ball more than your opponent, chances are you will have more opportunities to score. But if your possesion in the final third is complete shite, then yes it is a worthless stat for you.
pretty much this
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