How valuable a stat is expected goals?

I love when British soccer announcers comment that a player is “unlucky” in a droll voice, REALLLLLLLLLLLY.

LINK

Leeds top of expected goals table

Stoke

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Pool have weaponized VAR. hard to account for those as expected

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The liverpool VAR tally in the league (+/-) is +1, so this is a very tired excuse

City expected to be 5 points clear of liverpool should tell you how flawed the stat is if you've watched both play this season

Additionally, xG doesn't really account for GK quality or defender(s) position.

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One of the weaknesses of xG models (which is a limitation of available data) is the lack of information on the exact state of play (i.e. the positions of all players on the pitch) at the time of the shot. These labels can be a useful proxy for factors such as defensive pressure on the shot.

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So if Aguero is shooting from 6 yards out on his right foot, that's got a high xG. There isn't a differential factor though. So the same xG applies if he's latching onto a thru ball as it would if he's trying to dance around Van Dijk in the box and get a shot off. Despite being from the same spot on the pitch, those are vastly different shots from a level of difficulty. That's the way the formula reads to me anyway. I don't see anything that accounts for whether the shot is into Becker's goal (who saves an absurd amount of shots on target) or Claudio Bravo's goal (who doesn't)

It's an interesting stat on the surface but not without flaws at a deeper level

Early in the year I’d hoped we’d win the title on the last day in dramatic fashion.

The slow steamroll to the title has been more enjoyable than I expected though. Your petulance no doubt playing a part in that. Rather than an intense melt in the spring we get a months long showing. You’re locked to the tracks and the train is inching closer.

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Your petulance no doubt playing a part in that. Rather than an intense melt in the spring we get a months long showing. You’re locked to the tracks and the train is inching closer.

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SCH lived through 93:20. He’ll survive Pool finally winning the league.

Oh I’m sure, but that was a gut punch. This is death by 1,000 paper cuts. He also loathes Liverpool substantially more than city

Not really I’ve already accepted it and got over it

Winning it in the last few weeks would have had me and many others melting. I already said this like a week ago on here

Sucks you didn’t support Liverpool last time we won the league bc what goes around comes around

1000 paper cuts how gay are you?

The drama of a title race makes it so much better. Except for y’all. But the weekend glued to multiple matches wanting results to go certain ways bc you don’t want a club to win it is awesome

I’ll never forget where I was the day City beat us on the last day, the day Liverpool win the EPL not so much because it’s a forgone conclusion.

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Sucks you didn’t support Liverpool last time we won the league bc what goes around comes around

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That’s because they weren’t even a big team bro