The results also said that 41% of respondents have already voted. As of today, Ohio 1,367,236 (it's slightly higher than this because U.S. Elections Project only has data from 80 out of 88 counties but includes all of the largest) have voted early. In 2016 5,536,528 votes were cast so ~25%. Based on that, and the fact that Biden supports overwhelmingly are voting early, the results will skew towards Biden.

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Posted by deltaland

Member since Mar 2011

90718 posts

Posted on 10/21/20 at 12:40 pm to Fun Bunch

I’m trying to remain positive but even the more reliable or “Trump friendly” polls are not looking good right now.

It’s very frustrating and I get more and more dismayed by the day

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Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger

Member since Nov 2015

17511 posts

Posted on 10/21/20 at 12:53 pm to Fun Bunch

They’re all over the place. Rasmussen’s general election poll at the beginning of last month went from Trump +1 then to Biden +12 in late Sep to Biden +5 this month to Biden +3 now.

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Posted by VADawg

Wherever

Member since Nov 2011

44915 posts

Posted on 10/21/20 at 12:58 pm to Mellow Drama

quote:
My neighbor, a MAGA all the way, tells me in the exurbs / rural counties it's wall to wall Trump. But it's these burbs and metro areas that are close.

I lived in one of those counties for about 15 years. Your neighbor is spot on accurate.

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Posted by Mellow Drama

Flyover Country

Member since Aug 2020

3996 posts

Posted on 10/21/20 at 2:17 pm to xxTIMMYxx

quote:
What's up with Biden being up two in Ohio on Rasmussen
quote:
Such dumbassery, I don't know what's wrong with these people.

Was it like that in 2016?

Well, if I'm remembering right (too much happening here w in person school, sports practice, weekend activities)

Ohio seemed a lock for Hildebeast with many a sign for "her." In the last few days of the campaign, the tide seemed to turn and The Huzbeast became optimistic that not only would Trump take Ohio but that he would win.

Hoping for a repeat of that.

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Posted by Mellow Drama

Flyover Country

Member since Aug 2020

3996 posts

Posted on 10/21/20 at 2:18 pm to Ace Midnight

quote:
quote:
Hillary campaigned there nonstop and still got crushed

She should have been in Wisconsin which was winnable and razor close for her.

Mike and Karen Pence are campaigning in Ohio over the next few days... heard it on the radio.

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Posted by JPinLondon

not in London (currently NW Ohio)

Member since Nov 2006

7855 posts

Posted on 10/21/20 at 2:22 pm to Fun Bunch

my post a couple days ago on this issue...

quote:
A FEW FACTS:

Per RealClearPolitics.com, the last six polls (Sept/Oct) in Iowa show: Tie, Biden+2, Biden+5, Trump+3, Biden+3, Tie
RCP IOWA Average: Trump +0.5

the last four polls (Sept/Oct) in Ohio show: Biden+1, Biden+1, Trump+4, Tie
RCP OHIO Average: Biden +1.2

More facts:
- both states voted TWICE for Obama
- Iowa had the largest swing of any state from Dem in 2012 to R in 2016 (5.8% win for Obama to 9.4% for Trump)
- Ohio had the second-largest swing from Dem in '12 to R in '16 (3.0% win for Obama to 8.1% for Trump)
- that is a four-year, 15.2 percentage point swing to Trump/Republicans for Iowa
- and a four-year, 11.1 percentage point swing to Trump/Republicans for Ohio

OPINION/QUESTION:
I live in Ohio, and travel the state often.. I highly, HIGHLY doubt that Trump has lost enough support here to represent a 9.3 point swing back to Democrat.

Why should I believe Iowa, in four years, has eroded the unprecedent swing towards Trump into an 8.9 point turn towards Biden?

The 'Shy Trump Voter' - if he/she shows up - will surely give President Trump four more years.