re: What if Japan had come out on top in WW2

They never had the resources to win. Their entire strategy was based on a belief that the US was weak and decadent and inept militarily. Midway was more or less their last gasp. They had no fuel. They knew the 1940 US Naval appropriation was going to build a fleet they could never compete with. They thought Americans were decadent and weak and inferior militarily. Their hope in the Midway campaign was that they would score a great victory and the US would give up the fight. Even if that had happened, the US would have still built that 1940 Navy for the European theater. They could never have stopped it.

But consider this: Japan's goal in World War 2 was to dominate the Pacific Rim. They actually accomplished this in the 1970's, but they did it economically instead of militarily. Now, China is the dominant economy, and is trying to be the dominant military. At any rate, in the 1970's many people were afraid that Japan was buying up America, yet, here we are.


Edit: Japan actually knew they couldn't win after World War 1. That's why England and Japan negotiated the 1920 Washington Naval Treaty. Japan couldn't keep up, and England couldn't afford to. Meanwhile the US was developing 18 inch naval guns and had test fired 20 inch prototypes, something that would escalate the Battleship race to a point the other powers couldn't keep up with.

The 1920 treaty limited the sizes of the US, English, and Japanese fleets, limited ship types and tonnage. It gave the US and England numerical superiority over the Japanese, justified because they were two ocean navies. The Japanese didn't like it, but they accepted it because without it they would be vastly surpassed by the US. They were anyway, but it was part of why they didn't like us.

We never seem to mention that treaty in these discussions, but it shaped WW2 in the Pacific.