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Message
re: U.S. and Israel reach joint plan to counter Iran
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:28 pm to bencoleman
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:28 pm to bencoleman
I’m sorry, but your fantasy is just that, a fantasy.
Hezbollah has emerged from the Syrian war much stronger than it was before.
Iran opened a direct land supply route through Syria. Israel won’t be able to interdict weapons deliveries anymore. There will be too many trucks to monitor.
And now they’re operating complicated heavy weapons, in a combined arms setting. That hard to do. It’s the sort of thing real armies practice extensively, because it’s hard.
Then you have the expansion of their defensive fortifications into the Golan. It’s going to be one belt running the length of Israel’s northern border.
Then you have Hezbollahs growing political and economic strength in Lebanon. And their ever increasing appeal in the Christian community.
Hezbollah has emerged from the Syrian war much stronger than it was before.
Iran opened a direct land supply route through Syria. Israel won’t be able to interdict weapons deliveries anymore. There will be too many trucks to monitor.
And now they’re operating complicated heavy weapons, in a combined arms setting. That hard to do. It’s the sort of thing real armies practice extensively, because it’s hard.
Then you have the expansion of their defensive fortifications into the Golan. It’s going to be one belt running the length of Israel’s northern border.
Then you have Hezbollahs growing political and economic strength in Lebanon. And their ever increasing appeal in the Christian community.
This post was edited on 12/30/17 at 9:29 pm
1
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:32 pm to bencoleman
quote:
No it's fact. Hezbollah will have no money or weapons now explain how you think they'll continue to be effective. The answer is they won't be. They are done.
Oh lord. You are a special one.
Syria gave them the seventy odd tanks they’re operating.
Baghdad has plenty of resource, is Shiite, and has worked with Hezbollah in Syria.
Hezbollah isn’t hurting for sponsors.
I know you want them to be on the ropes, more than anything else in the world, but you can’t wish that into reality.
This post was edited on 12/30/17 at 9:33 pm
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:33 pm to Lima Whiskey
That was all true yesterday.
Today, it appears the Iranian Regime is about to be overthrown by a populist revolt that is opposed to Iran's interventions abroad.
Hezbollah may very soon be cut off from money and supplies from Iran as what could be shaping up as the new regime seems far less sympathetic and supportive of their cause.
Today, it appears the Iranian Regime is about to be overthrown by a populist revolt that is opposed to Iran's interventions abroad.
Hezbollah may very soon be cut off from money and supplies from Iran as what could be shaping up as the new regime seems far less sympathetic and supportive of their cause.
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:39 pm to kingbob
quote:
Hezbollah may very soon be cut off from money and supplies from Iran as what could be shaping up as the new regime seems far less sympathetic and supportive of their cause.
This the problem that westerners always have. They think it’s that government. And if they could only change that government, everything would be different.
The problem is not the Mullahs it’s the fact that Persians are Persians, and they don’t look at the world the way you do.
All the regime change in the world won’t change that.
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:39 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Oh lord. You are a special one.
Syria gave them the seventy odd tanks they’re operating.
Baghdad has plenty of resource, is Shiite, and has worked with Hezbollah in Syria.
Hezbollah isn’t hurting for sponsors.
I know you want them to be on the ropes, more than anything else in the world, but you can’t wish that into reality
I haven't attacked you personally. You're right, Hezbollah will be most impressive fighting with sticks and throwing rocks. All of those tanks require maintenance something Hezbollah will be short of soon. We'll see how Lebanon feels about Hezbollah when they're reduced to fighting with stone age technology.
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:42 pm to bencoleman
Fair. I’m being rude.
I’ll tell you, it is hard to take you seriously.
Take the tanks for example. The Syrians have trained them how to use and repair them.
And Syria has open access to the Russian armories, more or less.
So even if Iran reduces their aid to Hezbollah, how does that change anything?
They did just fine in the July War.
So maybe technology doesn’t matter.
I’ll tell you, it is hard to take you seriously.
Take the tanks for example. The Syrians have trained them how to use and repair them.
And Syria has open access to the Russian armories, more or less.
So even if Iran reduces their aid to Hezbollah, how does that change anything?
quote:
We'll see how Lebanon feels about Hezbollah when they're reduced to fighting with stone age technology.
They did just fine in the July War.
So maybe technology doesn’t matter.
This post was edited on 12/30/17 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:42 pm to kingbob
Iran gives Hezbollah close to 200 million a year. Keep dreaming that they could continue to operate effectively with that kind of loss.
Sorry kingbob. I meant to reply to LW.
Sorry kingbob. I meant to reply to LW.
This post was edited on 12/30/17 at 9:44 pm
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:47 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
I’ll tell you, it is hard to take you seriously
Well then. Since you have all of the answers anyway no matter how irrational they may be, kindly GFY. You apparently think you know much much more than you actually do. Have a great day.
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:55 pm to bencoleman
As I’ve gotten older I’ve learned to be careful about what I say. I’ve learned to say “I don’t know” and to speak only about the things I do know.
That’s probably true of everyone as they grow older, but I do look back at the younger version of me, and how I would go out on limb when I didn’t truly understand the details - when I wasn’t really in a position to talk.
I understand your passion, I understand why you believe what you believe, but the worlds a complicated place, and it will break your heart.
Hezbollah is an integral part of Lebanese society. It may receive funding from abroad, but it’s popular, and its ultimately the organic manifestation of Shiite thought in Lebanon, borrower ideology aside.
They’re also smart people. They understand the danger of relying on one sponsor, which is why they’ve also worked closely with Damascus as well. It’s why they’ve tried to learn as much as they can from the Russians. And it’s why they’ve developed diverse commercial empire to support the party.
They could lose every penny of foreign aid tomorrow, and they would still be potent threat.
That’s probably true of everyone as they grow older, but I do look back at the younger version of me, and how I would go out on limb when I didn’t truly understand the details - when I wasn’t really in a position to talk.
I understand your passion, I understand why you believe what you believe, but the worlds a complicated place, and it will break your heart.
Hezbollah is an integral part of Lebanese society. It may receive funding from abroad, but it’s popular, and its ultimately the organic manifestation of Shiite thought in Lebanon, borrower ideology aside.
They’re also smart people. They understand the danger of relying on one sponsor, which is why they’ve also worked closely with Damascus as well. It’s why they’ve tried to learn as much as they can from the Russians. And it’s why they’ve developed diverse commercial empire to support the party.
They could lose every penny of foreign aid tomorrow, and they would still be potent threat.
This post was edited on 12/30/17 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 12/30/17 at 9:55 pm to kingbob
He pointed out that “We do not have any business projects or investments via banks…” Nasrallah added that “We are open about the fact that Hezbollah’s budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, come from the Islamic Republic of Iran,” and he emphasized that his group “will not be affected” by any fresh sanctions
Posted on 12/30/17 at 10:06 pm to bencoleman
I remember at university being told that I was “reading history backwards.”
People look at something like Gettysburg, for example, and assume the outcome was inevitable - when it wasn’t - and it could have ended in a dozen different ways.
This is common and a hard habit to break. Don’t start with the conclusion. Don’t start with something like “Hezbollah will lose.” Start by reading a lot, immersing yourself in the problem, and then start thinking about, not what you want to happen, but what you think is likely to happen.
And don’t read poly sci, read history.
People look at something like Gettysburg, for example, and assume the outcome was inevitable - when it wasn’t - and it could have ended in a dozen different ways.
This is common and a hard habit to break. Don’t start with the conclusion. Don’t start with something like “Hezbollah will lose.” Start by reading a lot, immersing yourself in the problem, and then start thinking about, not what you want to happen, but what you think is likely to happen.
And don’t read poly sci, read history.
This post was edited on 12/30/17 at 10:13 pm
Posted on 12/30/17 at 10:20 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
This is common and a hard habit to break. Don’t start with the conclusion. Don’t start with something like “Hezbollah will lose.” Start by reading a lot, immersing yourself in the problem, and then start thinking about, not what you want to happen, but what you think is likely to happen.
And don’t read poly sci, read history
I've been reading at an adult level since the third grade. I don't think I know that I've read more books than you. When I need help learning how to tackle a problem I'll let you know. I'm dealing with the facts of Hezbollah's financial situation and what happens without Iran's money and weapons. Iran supplies roughly 90% of their funding. There's no organization on the face of this earth that could remain viable taking a hit like that. Hezbollah being there or not doesn't affect me at all. I'm calling what I see. It's going to take a while but they are done.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 12:30 am to bencoleman
Take a look at your logic.
The bbc stressed that the protestors were concerned about living standards in Iran, and they want Iran to spend less abroad, and more at home.
So for for the sake of argument, let’s accept that.
You then take the existence of said protestors to mean that the government in Tehran will fall, and the next government will terminate aid to Hezbollah.
Have we established how large the protests are? And if they represent the public at large?
Do we have good sources on the ground, or are we relying on western journalists, who live in the west, that are watching Iranian twitter feeds.
Have we seen any evidence that the security forces are cracking and joining the protests?
Have we seen unrest in rural areas?
What does trash collection look like in Tehran right now?
(It’s a good measure of a governments ability to enforce the rule of law, and basic order.)
Who organized the protests? Where does their funding come from? Do they have the ability to sustain the protests in face of a crackdown? Or will they fizzle out under pressure.
Who are the leaders of the movement? Where were they educated? Do their parents work for the state? What do they want?
If they believe in cutting foreign aid, what does that mean? Does that mean eliminating it? Or reducing it? Do they favor retrenchment?
These are all questions you need to answer, to one degree or another, before you can make a conclusion.
And from what I can tell, we don’t have answers to many of them. We can’t get good information out of Iran right now, from the media at least.
The bbc stressed that the protestors were concerned about living standards in Iran, and they want Iran to spend less abroad, and more at home.
So for for the sake of argument, let’s accept that.
You then take the existence of said protestors to mean that the government in Tehran will fall, and the next government will terminate aid to Hezbollah.
Have we established how large the protests are? And if they represent the public at large?
Do we have good sources on the ground, or are we relying on western journalists, who live in the west, that are watching Iranian twitter feeds.
Have we seen any evidence that the security forces are cracking and joining the protests?
Have we seen unrest in rural areas?
What does trash collection look like in Tehran right now?
(It’s a good measure of a governments ability to enforce the rule of law, and basic order.)
Who organized the protests? Where does their funding come from? Do they have the ability to sustain the protests in face of a crackdown? Or will they fizzle out under pressure.
Who are the leaders of the movement? Where were they educated? Do their parents work for the state? What do they want?
If they believe in cutting foreign aid, what does that mean? Does that mean eliminating it? Or reducing it? Do they favor retrenchment?
These are all questions you need to answer, to one degree or another, before you can make a conclusion.
And from what I can tell, we don’t have answers to many of them. We can’t get good information out of Iran right now, from the media at least.
This post was edited on 12/31/17 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 12/31/17 at 5:40 am to Lima Whiskey
Lima Whiskey putting on an epistemology clinic over here.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 6:19 am to Stingray
Looks like the plan is off to a good start
Better it is more thought out than the brilliant idea of throwing money and $99,999,999.99 wires at them.
I am amazed that the Obama admin sent them 13 wires of $99,999,999.99 each specifically to avoid oversight and NOBODY ever mentions it.
Better it is more thought out than the brilliant idea of throwing money and $99,999,999.99 wires at them.
I am amazed that the Obama admin sent them 13 wires of $99,999,999.99 each specifically to avoid oversight and NOBODY ever mentions it.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 6:37 am to bencoleman
quote:Can we at least celebrate the 01/01 before you start with the 04/01 celebration?
I've been reading at an adult level since the third grade.
Posted on 12/31/17 at 7:03 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The problem is not the Mullahs it’s the fact that Persians are Persians, and they don’t look at the world the way you do.
This is one of the most asinine posts I have ever read
Posted on 12/31/17 at 4:21 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
This is one of the most asinine posts I have ever read
Iranian foreign policy will reflect Iranian interests. That's the problem, if you want to call it a problem. A change in government won't change that.
We seem to think that everyone should see the world the way we do, and that they should do what it's in our interests.
Which quite a leap, but I don't know, that's city on a hill mythology, and manifest destiny, for you.
This post was edited on 12/31/17 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 12/31/17 at 4:24 pm to Stingray
quote:
Lima Whiskey putting on an epistemology clinic over here.
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