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BamaAtl
Alabama Fan
South of North
Member since Dec 2009
20429 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

How is the ventilator supply at your hospital system?


System-wide we're in good shape for a few more weeks. We won't need to take extraordinary measures until the end of next week (we think), though we'll probably have to get creative soon at specific facilities.


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Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1044 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Augie,

To calculate the daily growth rate of cases or deaths for a given day, You do the following, I will use 3/25/20 and 3/26/20 for the example below

Step 1: Total Deaths from 3/26 - Total Deaths from 3/25 which is 1,295 - 1,027 = 268 new Deaths on 3/26.

Step 2: Divide the new deaths from 3/26 by the total deaths as of 3/25: 268/1,027 = 26.1%

Another way to think of this which might help: Yesterday we had a total of 1,027 deaths, today we had 268 more, that's a 26.1% increase in deaths since yesterday.

Hope this helps.


auggie
Auburn Fan
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
14349 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
I'm gonna ask you a question: if you weighed 250 pounds yesterday, and today, you weighed 270, what was the percentage of your weight increase?

You need to be looking at the daily mortality increase and compare to the daily increase in new cases. That's how you know if your treatments are having any effect.
If diagnosed cases are increasing by a larger percentage, than your deaths are increasing, you are making headway.
This post was edited on 3/27 at 8:49 am


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1044 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
(270-250)/250 = 8%

I do look at that, you can see that comparison on this graph in the tracker.


For the last 5 days, the growth rate of deaths is exceeding the growth rate of new cases
This post was edited on 3/27 at 8:52 am


Tiguar
Auburn Fan
Alabama
Member since Mar 2012
28259 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

You need to be looking at the daily mortality increase and compare to the daily increase in new cases. That's how you know if your treatments are having any effect. If diagnosed cases are increasing by a larger percentage, than your deaths are increasing, you are making headway.


overall mortality rate already accounts for that info by default. you can trend it.


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auggie
Auburn Fan
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
14349 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
(270-250)/250=8%

That's exactly the same way, that you figure your daily mortality increase. from 1 day to the next.


Tiguar
Auburn Fan
Alabama
Member since Mar 2012
28259 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
...thats what he did to get 26%


auggie
Auburn Fan
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
14349 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
You can't see that the rate of deaths (red bar) has fallen for the last 3 days steadily?


auggie
Auburn Fan
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
14349 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

..thats what he did to get 26%


and that's wrong. 26% increase of 250 would = 65+ 250= 315.
This post was edited on 3/27 at 9:40 am


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1044 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Of course I can, and it has, we aren't debating that.

I was answering your question on how the numbers are calculated and responding to your statement:
"You need to be looking at the daily mortality increase and compare to the daily increase in new cases. That's how you know if your treatments are having any effect. If diagnosed cases are increasing by a larger percentage, than your deaths are increasing, you are making headway."

The blue lines on that graph represent the growth rate of new cases which for the last 5 days has been below the growth rate of deaths. Which according to your statement above would say that we aren't making headway.



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Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1044 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
I'm sorry but you're looking at it wrong.

If you don't believe me, then maybe you'll believe this: https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Growth-Rate


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Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
74742 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Louisiana now tied with CA in deaths at 83. (Per capita, CA is like the US to our being Italy - nice work, folks.)



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Tiguar
Auburn Fan
Alabama
Member since Mar 2012
28259 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
That’s not correct. That’s the growth rate of the growth rate. Not the growth rate.


auggie
Auburn Fan
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
14349 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:

Of course I can, and it has, we aren't debating that.


That's exactly what we are talking about. It's what I stated in my post that you questioned me about.
Mortality growth rate is dropping daily.


Janky
LSU Fan
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
32231 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
So, how are things? Better, worse or about the same?

I got into an argument with the wife last night because she doesn't like how unconcerned I am about this. I told her that is because I listen to what the doctors are saying and not the facebook moms. She was not thrilled with that comment.


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1044 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Your original statement was "I am looking at the last 3 days bar graphs, and it appears that new cases are increasing daily, in The U.S. by about 28%, but deaths are only increasing by about 15% daily."

Bolding added by me

I was responding to your numbers and statement which were and still are both wrong.


auggie
Auburn Fan
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
14349 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
It's The DAILY growth of mortality as a percentage comparison.

So, do you agree, that if the trend holds, we're looking at about 294 deaths for today?


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TigerFanatic99
Chicago Cubs Fan
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
15035 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
quote:


I got into an argument with the wife last night because she doesn't like how unconcerned I am about this.


We just had sex and went to bed. Second time this month even.


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1044 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
I'm confused, did you have sex with Janky or his wife?


auggie
Auburn Fan
Opelika, Alabama
Member since Aug 2013
14349 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 5:22 PM CST 6/1/20 Final Numbers for the Day
Sorry man, you were right in your OP. You're no mathematician.
I did miscalculate in my head on my first reply, but I used my calculator and corrected it in my next post.

See, the rate of new cases by percentage is remaining steady, while the rate of increase of deaths by percentage is dropping. That's a good thing.


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