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re: Trump's explains his plans for using tariffs.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:09 am to NEDM92
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:09 am to NEDM92
quote:
It doesn’t do anything but continue to devalue the dollar
What do you mean by "devalue the dollar"?
Tariffs lead to increased currency value relative to the exporting country. We saw this the first time Trump imposed tariffs on China - the dollar increased relative to the yuan.
We suspect at least some of that was manipulation by the Chinese government, but you would expect some currency depreciation to the extent that Chinese exports decreased.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:20 am to lake chuck fan
Trump is releasing this because his default to tariffs is getting blown up in commentary all over the internet. One of the negative things here is that his plans are going to hinder competition. I realize this is not the easiest problem in the world to solve but his default to tariffs is likely to lead to more problems than solutions.
Devaluing currency makes exports cheaper, meaning we pay less for things those countries export to us. A tariff will make us pay more for those things. That tariff is not going to hurt those countries because their goods will still be cheaper than domestic equivalents in most cases. The trade cheating and abuse can be dealt with in other ways, such as all the counterfeit stuff that comes out of China - you can deal with that with an outright ban or by restricting visas or the number of students that can come to the US from China, etc.
So we'll pay more for stuff and there will be less tax revenue going to the federal govt. Sounds like huge deficits. Reducing taxes on American producers sounds good, though. Probably going to lead to more deficit spending, depending on how DOGE goes. Not sure how this will lead to more jobs. If we're paying more for imported stuff via tariffs, we aren't going to have enough money to spend so that American producers expand and create more jobs. He's talking about 25% tariffs, that will affect a decent chunk of what's out there to buy. Long ago when tariffs were about the only way a govt raised money, it wasn't that big of a deal. Things are different now.
I don't see this happening. I'd like to see a bit more rigor in how this plays out. Take automobiles - if you slap a tariff on there, it either gets a lot more expensive to bring it in from Mexico, or production comes to the US where UAW just got a new deal to work 20% less and make 20% more, meaning the US consumer is still screwed.
US auto makers are out of control in their pricing. A work truck now can be over $100k. His plan seems like a recipe to worsen that.
Great idea. Where are the details? You could spend billions per year to build factories at the border, staff them with people that self-deport, living in Mexico, living and working in a lower cost of living environment, and you could manufacture every drug that we currently get from China. Cut off the benefits to the invaders and you can do this and still save billions every year. Where are the details like this?
Sounds good but I don't see any details, like how you're going to replace the inputs from China. Maybe those will be forthcoming.
quote:
higher tariffs will increase incrementally depending on how much individual foreign countries devalue their currency. They devalue their currency to take advantage of the United States, and they subsidize their industries, or otherwise engage in trade cheating and abuse.
Devaluing currency makes exports cheaper, meaning we pay less for things those countries export to us. A tariff will make us pay more for those things. That tariff is not going to hurt those countries because their goods will still be cheaper than domestic equivalents in most cases. The trade cheating and abuse can be dealt with in other ways, such as all the counterfeit stuff that comes out of China - you can deal with that with an outright ban or by restricting visas or the number of students that can come to the US from China, etc.
quote:
As tariffs on foreign producers go up, taxes on American producers will go down and go down very substantially. And that means a lot of jobs coming in.
So we'll pay more for stuff and there will be less tax revenue going to the federal govt. Sounds like huge deficits. Reducing taxes on American producers sounds good, though. Probably going to lead to more deficit spending, depending on how DOGE goes. Not sure how this will lead to more jobs. If we're paying more for imported stuff via tariffs, we aren't going to have enough money to spend so that American producers expand and create more jobs. He's talking about 25% tariffs, that will affect a decent chunk of what's out there to buy. Long ago when tariffs were about the only way a govt raised money, it wasn't that big of a deal. Things are different now.
quote:
Not only will this system end our gaping trade deficits—and they are massive right now—and bring back millions of American jobs—it will also bring trillions and trillions of dollars pouring into the U.S. Treasury from foreign countries and allow us to invest that money in American workers, American families, and American communities.
I don't see this happening. I'd like to see a bit more rigor in how this plays out. Take automobiles - if you slap a tariff on there, it either gets a lot more expensive to bring it in from Mexico, or production comes to the US where UAW just got a new deal to work 20% less and make 20% more, meaning the US consumer is still screwed.
quote:
This plan will be the linchpin of a new Strategic National Manufacturing Initiative, that builds on my historic success in ending NAFTA, which was a tremendous thing, a tremendous achievement, nobody thought it could be done, and we did USMCA—US-Mexico-Canada, and it was an incredible thing. But we’re also going to end other unfair trade deals, and we’ll end them quickly.
US auto makers are out of control in their pricing. A work truck now can be over $100k. His plan seems like a recipe to worsen that.
quote:
In addition, as a matter of both economic and national security, I will implement a bold series of reforms to completely eliminate dependence on China in all critical areas.
Great idea. Where are the details? You could spend billions per year to build factories at the border, staff them with people that self-deport, living in Mexico, living and working in a lower cost of living environment, and you could manufacture every drug that we currently get from China. Cut off the benefits to the invaders and you can do this and still save billions every year. Where are the details like this?
quote:
We will revoke China’s Most Favored Nation trade status, and adopt a 4-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods—everything from electronics to steel to pharmaceuticals. This will include strong protections to ensure China cannot circumvent restrictions by passing goods through conduit countries—countries that don’t make a product, but all of a sudden they’re making a lot of the product, it comes right through China, right out of China, and right into our country.
We will also adopt new rules to stop U.S. companies from pouring investments into China, and to stop China from buying up America, allowing all of those investments that clearly serve American interests. We’re not going to allow bad things to happen to our country anymore. And we will eliminate federal contracts for any company that outsources to China.
Sounds good but I don't see any details, like how you're going to replace the inputs from China. Maybe those will be forthcoming.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:33 am to lake chuck fan
quote:
Put a realistic timeline on Trump's plan for bringing manufacturing here. I don't see how it will play out as he wishes
quote:
Lol.... I ain't no economist son!
Why don't you tell us why it won't work.
You dont have to be an economist to see the issue he is raising.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:37 am to ThuperThumpin
quote:
Lol.... I ain't no economist son!
Why don't you tell us why it won't work.
You dont have to be an economist to see the issue he is raising.
Its a cult.
They shun conservative economics for Trumpism.
Weve been here, Trump loves to spend money and his tariffs will result on no permanent jobs.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:39 am to RogerTheShrubber
A deeply wounded narcissist incapable of acting except out of his own perceived self interest or out of revenge haha
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:40 am to NEDM92
quote:
A deeply wounded narcissist incapable of acting except out of his own perceived self interest or out of revenge haha
We saw what Trump will do with low economic indicators, he will use federal spending as a stimulus to prop up the numbers.
Thats his MO.\
Nothing gets solved, but stat hounds will think the economy is doing fine
This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 9:42 am
Posted on 11/26/24 at 9:58 am to RogerTheShrubber
What would be your approach, specifically as it relates to manufacturing jobs?
The policy of the USA since at least the early 1970s has been to largely abandon manufacturing. The idea being that the consumer benefits from low cost imports and, more importantly, unilaterally opening up our market to foreign goods will lead to higher paying service industry jobs - hence the emphasis on college degrees.
Has that worked? it has for some people for sure, but I don't think it is working for the majority of Americans.
So, either you are for continuing this policy - which every Administration has done so starting with at least Nixon, under the idea that these policies are actually working or you try something different.
The policy of the USA since at least the early 1970s has been to largely abandon manufacturing. The idea being that the consumer benefits from low cost imports and, more importantly, unilaterally opening up our market to foreign goods will lead to higher paying service industry jobs - hence the emphasis on college degrees.
Has that worked? it has for some people for sure, but I don't think it is working for the majority of Americans.
So, either you are for continuing this policy - which every Administration has done so starting with at least Nixon, under the idea that these policies are actually working or you try something different.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:00 am to JimEverett
quote:
specifically as it relates to manufacturing jobs?
We evolved beyond basic mfg decades ago.
Move it to Mexico, you'll solve your perceived China problem (though its already dying) and some of your immigration issues.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:04 am to TBoy
quote:
He still lies about what a tariff is and who pays it.
You only pay if you choose to buy products subject to tariff. Buy american and avoid the tax.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:05 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
We evolved beyond basic mfg decades ago.
So continue the basic policy we have had for at least 50 years. Which obviously is legit, but I think you also have to admit that it probably plays a role in America's economic frustration.
quote:
Move it to Mexico, you'll solve your perceived China problem (though its already dying) and some of your immigration issues.
What tools doe the President and Congress have towards making this happen?
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:06 am to JimEverett
quote:
So continue the basic policy we have had for at least 50 years
We've moved those jobs into more lucrative sectors.
Tech, energy, etc.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:07 am to Hogbit
quote:
You only pay if you choose to buy products subject to tariff. Buy american and avoid the tax.
But more importantly, the countries tariffing the USA should be equally tariffed for the products they send to us. Here is to you Europe!
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:09 am to lake chuck fan
Did the mexican president say the caravans would stop?
Trump doing work.
Trump doing work.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:12 am to NEDM92
quote:
I knew ten years ago the dollar would have almost no value which is part of the plan to usher in digital currency so anyone who’s such a genius they can enlighten us
I guess your plan is to just stand aside and allow them to do that?
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:18 am to CDawson
quote:
But more importantly, the countries tariffing the USA should be equally tariffed for the products they send to us. Here is to you Europe!
Isn't this basically the plan? Not tariff across the board, but tariff to correct the specific areas where other countries are taking advantage of us.
With tensions rising with China, it's imperative that the US stop being dependent on China for important items we use in our daily lives.
Such as medicine.
The whole interactive global economy is great until it's not..... Made in America needs to mean something again.
One thing is for certain, we sure will find out!
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:20 am to Hogbit
quote:
I guess your plan is to just stand aside and allow them to do that?
Dumb stuff like a widespread trade war will get you to digital currency faster.
And of course, stimulus spending.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:22 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
And of course, stimulus spending.
Has Trump announced that as part of his plan?
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:24 am to lake chuck fan
quote:
Isn't this basically the plan? Not tariff across the board, but tariff to correct the specific areas where other countries are taking advantage of us.
With tensions rising with China, it's imperative that the US stop being dependent on China for important items we use in our daily lives.
Such as medicine.
The whole interactive global economy is great until it's not..... Made in America needs to mean something again.
One thing is for certain, we sure will find out!
Correct. Equal market access and protecting intellectual property have been ignored by DC for years now. That looks to change going forward.
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:24 am to lake chuck fan
quote:
Has Trump announced that as part of his plan?
Doesn't need to, he will just like he did every year previously.
Deficit spending is a stimulus.
quote:
For the past year, President Donald Trump has repeatedly ping-ponged between claiming the “Economy is BOOMING,” and blasting the Federal Reserve for not doing enough to support economic growth.
“Would be sooo great if the Fed would further lower interest rates and quantitative ease,” Trump tweeted on Tuesday, less than a week after the US central bank signaled it would be hitting the pause button on any more rate cuts going forward. “The Dollar is very strong against other currencies and there is almost no inflation. This is the time to do it. Exports would zoom!”
The President campaigned on promises of 3% growth, and is presiding over somewhat less than that, with a final report issued Friday showing respectable 2.1% growth for the third quarter. But the economy is getting rave reviews, with 76% of respondents in a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS rating economic conditions in the US today as very or somewhat good, significantly more than those who said so at this time last year (67%). This is the highest share to say the economy is good since February 2001, when 80% said so.
quote:
That’s in part thanks to the Fed’s success in keeping the US economy running smoothly over the last year, with unemployment hovering near 50-year record lows and the stock market hitting record highs.
LINK
quote:
In response, the commander-in-chief has pushed unusual economic ideas, including publicly pressuring the Fed to cut rates to zero and even at times, suggesting rates should fall into negative territory. The Fed, however, has shown no signs of taking Trump’s suggestions.
This post was edited on 11/26/24 at 10:30 am
Posted on 11/26/24 at 10:47 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Dumb stuff like a widespread trade war will get you to digital currency faster.
You're right. Those dumbass american workers should just shut up and stand aside. fricking them over has worked so well all this time, we should just keep doing it.
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