re: The chance of getting Iran to agree to any kind of acceptable peace deal is very low.

quote:

---

That becomes a problem for China and India to solve, not us. I'm not saying it doesn't hurt the US with higher bbl prices while they figure themselves out, but that's not where our oil is coming from.

---

Global energy demand is static. If the world needs say 100M barrels of oil to maintain its economic output and transportation requirements and suddenly 30M barrels of oil are unavailable we do not have 30M barrels of excess capacity to provide until Venezuela comes online along with the refineries required to process their heavy crude. That will take years.

So while it’s superficially true that we hypothetically have enough oil to supply ourselves if we cut everyone else off, doing so will 100% cause our allies globally to go without large percentages of their oil needs which will trigger a global economic crisis unseen since at least the 70s.

It will also cause a famine because a large percentage of the world’s fertilizer is produced and transits that strait.

I’ll also point out that when Iran responds to what for them is an energy existential religious threat to them by blowing up water desalination plants, power plants and of course oil refineries, port equipment, oil fields and pipelines the local production of oil won’t just go offline, you will be bringing actual death to the civilian populations of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Jordan all of whom are our major trading partners and allied nations.

There’s also the matter of the reported 80-100k US casualties that the Pentagon projects it would cost to do a ground invasion of Iran which is a nation with 90M people located in cities and mountainous terrain that resembles Afghanistan.

So in order to accomplish what the neocons are demanding which is regime change the trade would look like this:

We Get:
-regime change in Iran (this didn’t result in a friendly government in Iraq and took a decade btw)

We Trade:
-Economic recession or depression
-midterms flip government to the DNC ending Trumps term
-famine in Africa and India
-60k-100k US casualties
-$3T+ in spending
-destruction economically and possible revolution in SA, UAE, etc when their oil production and water supply goes offline for months to years

Is there any rational person who would risk all of that to remove some mullahs in Iran who don’t or at least didn’t pose a threat to anyone over there but Israel (who btw promised this would be easy to get us involved and is sabotaging peace deals openly)?

quote:

---

The chance of Trump making up some bullshite to keep the markets from crashing Monday is way higher

---

The markets have not crashed yet. In fact they are up.

Did Trump make up "some bullshite" that I missed?