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Rush once again delivering awesomeness - why Biden polling well?
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:22 pm
Conversation he had with a pollster revealed that:
- suburban women (traditionally conservative) being over-sampled
- rural conservatives being under-sampled
- rural "Reagan Democrats" under-sampled
The result...
1) they can claim the amount of Republicans being sampled is "correct" when in fact, they are over-sampling the anti-Trump electorate
2) added bonus.. they get to boost the "anti-Trump Republicans" in a sub-set of the results
I (me, not Rush) am one to be skeptical of the polls, but not as dismissive of them as some of y'all. But I can tell you that seeing Biden +5 in Ohio is all but laughable, and very-much makes me believe the above is true, because:
- Trump won Ohio in '16 by 9.5
- Obama won Ohio in '12 by 1.5
If you believe Biden has swung Ohio by 14.5 points in four years then I have a bridge to sell you!
- suburban women (traditionally conservative) being over-sampled
- rural conservatives being under-sampled
- rural "Reagan Democrats" under-sampled
The result...
1) they can claim the amount of Republicans being sampled is "correct" when in fact, they are over-sampling the anti-Trump electorate
2) added bonus.. they get to boost the "anti-Trump Republicans" in a sub-set of the results
I (me, not Rush) am one to be skeptical of the polls, but not as dismissive of them as some of y'all. But I can tell you that seeing Biden +5 in Ohio is all but laughable, and very-much makes me believe the above is true, because:
- Trump won Ohio in '16 by 9.5
- Obama won Ohio in '12 by 1.5
If you believe Biden has swung Ohio by 14.5 points in four years then I have a bridge to sell you!
This post was edited on 9/28/20 at 12:23 pm
2
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:44 pm to JPinLondon
quote:
If you believe Biden has swung Ohio by 14.5 points in four years then I have a bridge to sell you
What they are hoping for is that Trump turned off voters. Nobody is voting FOR Biden except his family. Biden voters are voting against Trump>
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:49 pm to JPinLondon
quote:Regardless, no one wants their house graffitied due to participation in a poll as a Trump supporter. IMO Trump vote undersampling in polls this year will exceed that of 2016 by a percent or two.
Conversation he had with a pollster revealed that:
- suburban women (traditionally conservative) being over-sampled
- rural conservatives being under-sampled
- rural "Reagan Democrats" under-sampled
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:51 pm to NC_Tigah
Seems they had the same problem in 2016 ......
Once the Dems get their collective butts kicked in this election, it's time to burn the pollsters houses down.
Once the Dems get their collective butts kicked in this election, it's time to burn the pollsters houses down.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:54 pm to bluedragon
quote:
time to burn the pollsters houses down.
I actually love watching the "favored" team getting smoked on election day. let them poll how the democrats pay them too.
This post was edited on 9/28/20 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:59 pm to bluedragon
quote:Nah, this is different. We didn't see US Senators and their wives threatened/assaulted on the streets of DC, etc in 2016.
Seems they had the same problem in 2016 ......
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