re: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005

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but even before Aug 1st stocks were price at "fair value" compare to historical EPS over the last 20 years. Today they are cheaper.

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Another point about equities - with 10 year rates almost down to 1.5%, what is a "fair value" P/E yield? If you told me it was 4% (i.e. ~2.5X bonds), then that would imply that 25:1 was pretty fair. I'm not saying to count on rates always being this low, but it's just hard to see them going much higher for the foreseeable future.