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Started By
Message
re: Oil prices back down under $100
Posted on 3/9/26 at 10:47 am to AlterEd
Posted on 3/9/26 at 10:47 am to AlterEd
quote:
Markets being driven by fear rather than supply. That's a wild shift.
The current supply issue is due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That's 15-20% of global oil supply. As soon as the Strait is open supply will normalize.
1
Posted on 3/9/26 at 10:58 am to GumboPot
The U.S. and even China are positioned to weather the storm.
The U.S. is a net exporter of oil so a supply disruption will affect Europe not here.
China imports oil, a lot of it from the U.S. actually, but also has a stockpile in the range of 300 to 400 million barrels.
What is happening to the countries that depend on the tankers is all those ships are at anchor, no empty ones coming in or full ones going out. Their stock tanks are nearly full too meaning they will have to shut in production.
Ideally, when tanker traffic resumes things will go back to normal.
However, normal wasn't built in a day it'll be weeks before the supply chain is moving at something resembling normal.
As for the price fluctuation, expect more of that the longer this debacle continues.
The U.S. is a net exporter of oil so a supply disruption will affect Europe not here.
China imports oil, a lot of it from the U.S. actually, but also has a stockpile in the range of 300 to 400 million barrels.
What is happening to the countries that depend on the tankers is all those ships are at anchor, no empty ones coming in or full ones going out. Their stock tanks are nearly full too meaning they will have to shut in production.
Ideally, when tanker traffic resumes things will go back to normal.
However, normal wasn't built in a day it'll be weeks before the supply chain is moving at something resembling normal.
As for the price fluctuation, expect more of that the longer this debacle continues.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 11:04 am to JacieNY
People are just natural drama queens, even those that trade in oil. The World is absolutely awash in oil. Venezuela alone has more reserves than most OPEC nations combined. We will see $35 per barrel almost immediately once the Straight re-opens.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 11:07 am to NashvilleTider
Good thread.
If we can have one every time there is a fake panic, then we can also have one every time it is proven to be false.
If we can have one every time there is a fake panic, then we can also have one every time it is proven to be false.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 11:10 am to ragincajun03
quote:
We're not getting $2 national average gasoline
If you take out the blue states in the national average... absolutely we can achieve this in the future. I predict red states will be $2/gallon sooner than later. We can't help it that states like California, Washington, Hawaii, Oregon, Alaska, Arizona, etc have way too much overhead waste in their gas prices.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 11:11 am to PinevilleTiger
Not sure how you figure to get us to $35/barrel oil but in the event that happens it will cause the complete collapse of the domestic petroleum industry.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 11:15 am to OU Guy
quote:
Please don't shoot the messenger. But...
Keep in mind - gasoline retailers raise prices immediately because they are trying to price for future replacement costs.
Oversimplification - but pump prices oftentimes reflect not what is in the storage tank this morning - but what the likely cost to replace it two weeks from now will be.
That is why there is not an immediate correlation in prices on the back side.
Sure. I say BS. When the prices go down but we don't see immediate drops at the pumps, they will say, Don't shoot the messenger, but you have to realize that the gas that is in the pumps was already paid for at the higher rate so the price has to stay at that level until the new inventory is bought and delivered.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 11:25 am to ronricks
quote:
ronricks
The irony from you posting this is incredible
You spent 4yrs screaming like a girl that Orange wouldnt win
Please explain why cry about? You will say rates cause yoi are a moron
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 11:26 am
Posted on 3/9/26 at 11:26 am to PinevilleTiger
quote:
Venezuela alone has more reserves than most OPEC nations combined.
Reserves aren't the same as economically recoverable reserves.
quote:
We will see $35 per barrel almost immediately once the Straight re-opens.
IF that happens, you will see the domestic onshore O&G industry laying down rigs, and investment in those "most in the world" Venezuelan reserves curtailed, "almost immediately".
Posted on 3/9/26 at 11:26 am to GumboPot
quote:
Yeah, I'm crying
What would you call it then when you are acting like a Karen?
Posted on 3/9/26 at 12:10 pm to NashvilleTider
quote:
Oil prices back down under $100
I hope everyone bought the dip.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 12:15 pm to JacieNY
quote:
China imports oil, a lot of it from the U.S. actually, but also has a stockpile in the range of 300 to 400 million barrels.
Europe (EU): Emergency stocks high (~108M tonnes / ~90 days cover, May '25 data). No releases; stable, no immediate risks per Commission/IEA.
India: 25 days crude + 25 days products (50 total sufficiency). SPR ~39M bbl capacity, mostly full; short-term comfortable.
Japan: 254 days total imports (146 national). Refiners urge release amid 95% ME reliance; gov considering but no plans yet.
China: 1.1-1.3B bbl total stocks (~110 days import cover). Largest buffer, still building.
Russia: Major producer, minimal SPR (no large strategic stocks). Can ramp exports as alt supply.
USA SPR sits at ~415M barrels (~58% full)
Posted on 3/10/26 at 10:34 pm to JacieNY
quote:
The U.S. is a net exporter of oil so a supply disruption will affect Europe not here.
The US produces 9 million barrels of actual crude oil per day. It also produces 3 million barrels of CONDENSATE per day which is legally called crude oil because congress in the 1970 approval for the Alaskan Pipeline and banning exports except from California and Alaska. The refines over 15 million barrels per day and imports 4 million from Canada and over 2 million from other nations.
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