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NY Times election night needle returns for the midterms
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:10 am
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:10 am
The New York Times election needle, which has been the subject of criticism, is set to return for the November midterms, according to the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR).
The online predictive forecast model was particularly the subject of scorn on the night of the 2016 presidential election.
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It predicted the morning of Nov. 8, 2016 that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had an 85 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican nominee Donald Trump lost the popular vote, but won the presidency comfortably in the Electoral College.
The Times itself called the needle "an object of both obsession and derision during the 2016 presidential election" when it was re-introduced before the Alabama special Senate election in Dec. 2017.
The CJR report also says that the Times has partnered with Siena College to conduct live polls to allow "audiences to peer under the hood as a call bank of college students tries—and mostly fails—to reach poll respondents in real time." LINK
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Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:11 am to Jbird
Hell yes.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:11 am to Jbird
quote:
The New York Times election needle, which has been the subject of criticism
There's seriously no reason for it to come under criticism, its track record is flawless. As someone who is good at spitballing those calculations in my head, I kind of have mixed feelings about it. It takes away a huge advantage that I felt I had in live trading on PredictIt (although the field has gotten noticeably better and my advantage was already starting to dwindle anyhow).
This post was edited on 10/18/18 at 10:13 am
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:13 am to Jbird
Good. I love the before and after screenshots from Nov 6, 2016.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:14 am to Jbird
quote:
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com forecast model currently gives Democrats an 83 percent chance of taking back control of the House, where they need to win back 23 seats, in the midterms. Republicans, meanwhile, have an 80 percent chance of retaining their majority in the Senate.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 10:16 am to Jbird
Watching that thing slowly, and then rapidly tick to the right on November 8th was pretty entertaining.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 11:08 am to tWildcat
Posted on 10/18/18 at 11:21 am to tWildcat
quote:
Watching that thing slowly, and then rapidly tick to the right on November 8th was pretty entertaining.
i was hard into some bourbon that night. normally i'll jack around on the phone and watch news or election results, but i had the laptop out switching between tabs. i remember the moment around 10:00 when everybody's tune changed and the needle flipped over incredibly suddenly.
bourbon went down more quickly then.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 11:26 am to 3nOut
quote:I member!
i was hard into some bourbon that night. normally i'll jack around on the phone and watch news or election results, but i had the laptop out switching between tabs. i remember the moment around 10:00 when everybody's tune changed and the needle flipped over incredibly suddenly.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 12:03 pm to Jbird
quote:
NY Times election night needle
What will it be this time; meth or heroin?
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