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re: More blue wave...CNBC Poll has Heller leading in NV
Posted on 10/9/18 at 5:52 pm to lsursb
Posted on 10/9/18 at 5:52 pm to lsursb
Ralston thinks the internals are a little weird.
...turnout.
quote:
@RalstonReports
There are some strange internals in the NBC/Marist poll: Heller up 54-33 in Washoe seems highly unlikely. Never seen a number like that. If he's winning Washoe by 21, the race will not be close. Also, Heller up 11 among indies does not comport with other polls I have seen. 1/2
quote:
@RalstonReports
But it is a plus-4 Dem sample, which makes sense, and it is totally possible that Heller is up 2. The race is close. But note that @mmurraypolitics says undecideds are anti-Trump, which could be problematic for Heller. 2/2
quote:
@RalstonReports
If Rosen is only up by 10 among Latinos (46-36), that's a real problem for her. And she can't get to 50 percent among female likely voters (48-36)? I say again: This race is close in every poll I have seen or know of, but those numbers are jarring.
quote:
@RalstonReports My final word (probably not) on the NBC/Marist poll is this: There are some very odd internals, but the party reg sample (D+4), male/female numbers (49-51) and the Latino sample (16 percent) are plausible. Heller plus 2 is possible, but it all comes down to....
...turnout.
1
Posted on 10/9/18 at 5:52 pm to lsursb
Polls don’t mean shite! Haven’t you all learned that yet?
Posted on 10/9/18 at 6:32 pm to Decatur
Just a thought. If the sample is D+4 and yet the results show a Heller lead, it sounds like a lot of the “traditional” Dem voters are crossing over.
As in “You know, maybe that Kavanaugh thing is REALLY biting the Dems in the arse.”
As in “You know, maybe that Kavanaugh thing is REALLY biting the Dems in the arse.”
Posted on 10/9/18 at 6:42 pm to teke184
quote:
Just a thought. If the sample is D+4 and yet the results show a Heller lead, it sounds like a lot of the “traditional” Dem voters are crossing over.
There are secondary issues that are bumping up Heller's opposition; Democrat enthusiasm in Nevada is higher than nationally, because they have a realistic shot at having both state houses having majority female officeholders.
Contrary to popular belief on the board, Polls do have real meanings. Much of what they mean, though, is clear only in retrospect, particularly about how the electorate in any given election changes.
Democrats *really* need to hope that women turning out to vote for Hillary to make her the first Woman president, really wasn't a thing-- because if that is an integral part of 2016 data, it is one of the cornerstones of current polling methodologies-- and so a slip in female participation rates, or female independents voting Democrat could be catastrophic.
Posted on 10/9/18 at 7:02 pm to dcbl
quote:
Florida will be republican, book it
Rick Scott will win or lose in Florida over the next week with how the state responds to Hurricane Michael.
He's really shined in these situations before, so I think it may help him pull it out.
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