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Looking ahead - the Senate races for 2020 - Dems need to net plus FIVE seats to win
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:35 am
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:35 am
Netting + 5 to win assumes that repubs wind up winning MS & AZ & Dems hold on in MT (all of which will happen)
The Senate map in 2020 looks as bad for us as it did for Dems here in 2018; we are defending an awful lot
but looking at it very closely, I don't see how the Dems can hope to take the Senate back, even with us having to defend so much; unless the economy totally tanks; which I do not see happening
BEST CASE for dems is to get the Senate to 51-49 with Repubs in charge still; and that is with them winning ALL the toss-ups
yes, Georgia & Alaska COULD be thrown in as toss-ups, but so could Michigan and Minnesota, I'm just not seeing it though
Here are the races:
Alabama - Doug Jones - Democratic - Republican pickup
Alaska - Dan Sullivan - Republican - Republican hold
Arkansas - Tom Cotton - Republican - Republican hold
Colorado - Cory Gardner - Republican - TOSSUP
Delaware - Chris Coons - Democratic - Democrat hold
Georgia - David Perdue - Republican - Republican hold
Idaho - Jim Risch - Republican - Republican hold
Illinois - Dick Durbin - Democratic - Democrat hold
Iowa - Joni Ernst - Republican - TOSSUP
Kansas - Pat Roberts - Republican - Republican hold
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell - Republican - Republican hold
Louisiana - Bill Cassidy - Republican - Republican hold
Maine - Susan Collins - Republican - TOSSUP
Massachusetts - Ed Markey - Democratic - Democrat hold
Michigan - Gary Peters - Democratic - Democrat hold
Minnesota - Tina Smith - Democratic - Democrat hold
Mississippi - PROBABLE REPUBLICAN - Republican hold
Montana - Steve Daines - Republican - Republican hold
Nebraska - Ben Sasse - Republican - Republican hold
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen - Democratic - TOSSUP
New Jersey - Cory Booker - Democratic - Democrat hold
New Mexico - Tom Udall - Democratic - Democrat hold
North Carolina - Thom Tillis - Republican - TOSSUP
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe - Republican - Republican hold
Oregon - Jeff Merkley - Democratic - Democrat hold
Rhode Island - Jack Reed - Democratic - Democrat hold
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham - Republican - Republican hold
South Dakota - Mike Rounds - Republican - Republican hold
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander - Republican - Republican hold
Texas - John Cornyn - Republican - Republican hold
Virginia - Mark Warner - Democratic - Democrat hold
West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito - Republican - Republican hold
Wyoming - Mike Enzi - Republican - Republican hold
thoughts? anyone think I am off base here?
The Senate map in 2020 looks as bad for us as it did for Dems here in 2018; we are defending an awful lot
but looking at it very closely, I don't see how the Dems can hope to take the Senate back, even with us having to defend so much; unless the economy totally tanks; which I do not see happening
BEST CASE for dems is to get the Senate to 51-49 with Repubs in charge still; and that is with them winning ALL the toss-ups
yes, Georgia & Alaska COULD be thrown in as toss-ups, but so could Michigan and Minnesota, I'm just not seeing it though
Here are the races:
Alabama - Doug Jones - Democratic - Republican pickup
Alaska - Dan Sullivan - Republican - Republican hold
Arkansas - Tom Cotton - Republican - Republican hold
Colorado - Cory Gardner - Republican - TOSSUP
Delaware - Chris Coons - Democratic - Democrat hold
Georgia - David Perdue - Republican - Republican hold
Idaho - Jim Risch - Republican - Republican hold
Illinois - Dick Durbin - Democratic - Democrat hold
Iowa - Joni Ernst - Republican - TOSSUP
Kansas - Pat Roberts - Republican - Republican hold
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell - Republican - Republican hold
Louisiana - Bill Cassidy - Republican - Republican hold
Maine - Susan Collins - Republican - TOSSUP
Massachusetts - Ed Markey - Democratic - Democrat hold
Michigan - Gary Peters - Democratic - Democrat hold
Minnesota - Tina Smith - Democratic - Democrat hold
Mississippi - PROBABLE REPUBLICAN - Republican hold
Montana - Steve Daines - Republican - Republican hold
Nebraska - Ben Sasse - Republican - Republican hold
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen - Democratic - TOSSUP
New Jersey - Cory Booker - Democratic - Democrat hold
New Mexico - Tom Udall - Democratic - Democrat hold
North Carolina - Thom Tillis - Republican - TOSSUP
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe - Republican - Republican hold
Oregon - Jeff Merkley - Democratic - Democrat hold
Rhode Island - Jack Reed - Democratic - Democrat hold
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham - Republican - Republican hold
South Dakota - Mike Rounds - Republican - Republican hold
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander - Republican - Republican hold
Texas - John Cornyn - Republican - Republican hold
Virginia - Mark Warner - Democratic - Democrat hold
West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito - Republican - Republican hold
Wyoming - Mike Enzi - Republican - Republican hold
thoughts? anyone think I am off base here?
5
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:38 am to dcbl
It could easily go all Dem in 2020...House, Senate and Presidency.
All it takes is 10k here and there of illegal votes or felons voting to take away any chance of Reps winning. Texas and Georgia are now swing states for the foreseeable future
All it takes is 10k here and there of illegal votes or felons voting to take away any chance of Reps winning. Texas and Georgia are now swing states for the foreseeable future
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:42 am to AuburnTigers
quote:nah, midterms with a fired up electorate don't make them swing states
Texas and Georgia are now swing states for the foreseeable future
Texas, most money ever spent on a Senate race? Plus, Hispanics are not as blue as many would have you believe
Lastly, TRUMP doing what he needs to do on the border (with or without a wall) and deportations minimizes that
This post was edited on 11/7/18 at 11:02 am
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:50 am to dcbl
Pretty much nailed it. I think flipping Michigan is more likely than holding Colorado though. Colorado is gone forever, man.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:53 am to anc
Will pickup Alabama but will certainly lose Colorado. I like our chances of holding NC and Iowa. I think we are in good shape in the Senate.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:53 am to dcbl
Possibly losing TX and FL in the general is concerning to me. Those were such close races that they could easily flip with the right candidate.
Cue in the "TX isn't going blue!" crowd
Cue in the "TX isn't going blue!" crowd
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:54 am to dcbl
We're sending that fruit Doug Jones to the house.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:57 am to bamarep
quote:
We're sending that fruit Doug Jones to the house.
In place of Terri Sewell? I might could actually get on board with that.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 10:59 am to AuburnTigers
quote:
it takes is 10k here and there of illegal votes or felons voting to take away any chance of Reps winning.
children should not post on this board.
You remind of trump asking us to pretend that 3 to 5 million illegals voted against him.
So far there were maybe 100 cases.
Not 10,000.
Not 3 million.
Lie about something else.
That one is just silly.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 11:24 am to CelticDog
I see the following:
GOP Pickups: AL
Dem Pickups: CO (gone forever)
Tossups: NC,NH,MI (James vs. Peters would be very interesting)
Collins holds on fine in Maine (she's like Maine's equivalent of Manchin in WV)
Ernst should be fine with Trump's coattails in IA
GOP Pickups: AL
Dem Pickups: CO (gone forever)
Tossups: NC,NH,MI (James vs. Peters would be very interesting)
Collins holds on fine in Maine (she's like Maine's equivalent of Manchin in WV)
Ernst should be fine with Trump's coattails in IA
This post was edited on 11/7/18 at 11:29 am
Posted on 11/7/18 at 11:25 am to GeneralLee
quote:I hope you are right about Michigan
Tossups: NC,NH,MI (James vs. Peters would be very interesting)
Posted on 11/7/18 at 11:26 am to AuburnTigers
quote:
It could easily go all Dem in 2020...House, Senate and Presidency
rofl
Posted on 11/7/18 at 11:29 am to dcbl
quote:
Maine - Susan Collins - Republican - TOSSUP
Collins has one of the highest approval ratings of any Republican senator...only the three from the Dakotas are higher. She isn't going anywhere...in spite of the threats by the left wing loons.
quote:
Collins holds on fine in Maine (she's like Maine's equivalent of Manchin in WV)
This.
LINK
This post was edited on 11/7/18 at 11:31 am
Posted on 11/7/18 at 11:33 am to BamaGradinTn
quote:I hope you are right, but Dems will be gunning hard for that seat
Collins has one of the highest approval ratings of any Republican senator...only the three from the Dakotas are higher. She isn't going anywhere...in spite of the threats by the left wing loons.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 11:43 am to idlewatcher
quote:
Those were such close races that they could easily flip with the right candidate.
Even though Texas had arguably "the wrong" candidate running for the Rs and still won?
I get that anxiety with some of these races, but FFS - man up. You think Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders will do well in Texas in 2020?
Please - Trump will win Texas by 20 points against any of them, and probably 12 to 15 over Biden.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 11:52 am to dcbl
quote:
Alabama - Doug Jones - Democratic - Republican pickup
Agreed
quote:
Colorado - Cory Gardner - Republican - TOSSUP
Probably mark that one a "leans Dem" - having said that, I think Gardner is both a solid conservative AND has a heck of an organization - it was just 2014 he won an open seat by 2 points.
A lot of this will depend on how valuable Trump's coattails are, particularly if Trump hires a new AG that is better on "the dope" question. But, I like Gardner's chances as the incumbent, running alongside a successful and surging President Trump.
quote:
Iowa - Joni Ernst - Republican - TOSSUP
Agreed, but I think Joni is safer than most think.
quote:
Maine - Susan Collins - Republican - TOSSUP
Based SuCol is going to clean the clock of any Dem who runs. 6 or 7 points. Mark it down.
quote:
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen - Democratic - TOSSUP
She ain't going anywhere. NH is getting to be like fool's gold for Republicans. I thought Brown gave it a great shot, and still came up short.
quote:
North Carolina - Thom Tillis - Republican - TOSSUP
Agreed. North Carolina is enigmatic AF.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:03 pm to Ace Midnight
Gardner unseated an incumbent.
NH might be fool's gold but they said that about Trump flipping PA.
A safe seat can be ruined for either party if there's a primary challenge by an extremist nut.
NH might be fool's gold but they said that about Trump flipping PA.
A safe seat can be ruined for either party if there's a primary challenge by an extremist nut.
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:09 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
quote:
Colorado - Cory Gardner - Republican - TOSSUP
Probably mark that one a "leans Dem" - having said that, I think Gardner is both a solid conservative AND has a heck of an organization - it was just 2014 he won an open seat by 2 points.
A lot of this will depend on how valuable Trump's coattails are, particularly if Trump hires a new AG that is better on "the dope" question. But, I like Gardner's chances as the incumbent, running alongside a successful and surging President Trump.
seems that this is what most people think; I still have it as a tossup for 2 reasons:
1. Power of incumbency
2. My expectation that Trump (with the very public help of Gardner) either reclassifies or decriminalizes weed at the federal level
IF #2 happens, CO may push back to "purple" from "leans blue"
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:31 pm to dcbl
"The power of the incumbency."
Even with this I worry for Perdue and Georgia. This woman that came very close to being elected Gov. She did this and even demeaned agriculture. Was Kemp that flawed of a candidate?
Pretty close to the same number of voters voted in 2016 and Trump carried by 51.05 to Clinton 45.89 Johnson 3.06 ...
Kemp 50.4 Abrams 48.7 Metz 0.9
Even with this I worry for Perdue and Georgia. This woman that came very close to being elected Gov. She did this and even demeaned agriculture. Was Kemp that flawed of a candidate?
Pretty close to the same number of voters voted in 2016 and Trump carried by 51.05 to Clinton 45.89 Johnson 3.06 ...
Kemp 50.4 Abrams 48.7 Metz 0.9
This post was edited on 11/7/18 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:38 pm to NewbombII
quote:
Even with this I worry for Perdue and Georgia. This woman that came very close to being elected Gov. She did this and even demeaned agriculture. Was Kemp that flawed of a candidate?
Perdue is pretty popular in GA & it is a presidential election year - that seat is safe baw
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