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Lifting the cap on payroll tax would not pass a dem congress. Here is data as to why

Posted on 10/10/26 at 3:53 pm
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
75031 posts
Posted on 10/10/26 at 3:53 pm


quote:

Every district would be affected, but the burden falls hardest on affluent areas.
62.7% of workers earning above the cap live in districts represented by Democrats.




quote:

The average Democratic district has 92 workers above the cap per 1,000 residents.
The average Republican district has 53.
That's 73% more.


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All 10 of the most affected districts are represented by Democrats, in New York City, Seattle, and coastal California, which would impose top marginal tax rates of 68% (NY), 53.2% (WA) and 67.60% (CA) on top earners.





quote:

Medical professionals would be hit hardest.
About 8 in 10 surgeons and 6 in 10 physicians earn above the cap. Nurse anesthetists and dentists are also among the most affected.
Healthcare workers make up ~12% of earners above the cap, vs. ~5% in legal professions.



That matters because the US already faces projected physician shortages across many specialties.
33% of affected physicians and 27% of affected surgeons are 55 or older. Higher marginal tax rates could push some of them to cut hours or retire earlier.


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9
The broader economy would feel it too.
Eliminating the cap would reduce long-run GDP by about 3% (Blandin 2021).
Even raising the cap to $300,000 would lower GDP by 1.7% and the capital stock by 3.4% by 2050 (Penn Wharton Budget Model).


There are a *ton* of dem congressman who represent districts in urban cores and wealthy suburbs in high cost areas of CA, NY, and northeast who will absolutely balk at this proposal. Raising taxes on 20%+ of your voters is asking to lose your job
Posted by nealnan8
Atlanta
Member since Oct 2016
5403 posts
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:08 pm to
Stupid analysis. The are 2 different bills submitted in the House and Senate that include lifting the cap on payroll tax and they are bipartisan. For the Democrats, E. Warren, T. Kaine and C. Coons are the sponsors for the various bills, along with 7 Republicans. I have not seen any Democrat come out against this yet.
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