re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Russia has begun using its own satellite system "Rassvet" to control drones over Ukraine. GUR reported this to Reuters.

This year, Russia launched 32 satellites into orbit, and the system can already transmit data from reconnaissance drones in real time and allow changing the route of attack UAVs during flight.

GUT notes that this will make it more difficult to intercept them with electronic warfare means.

Coverage is still intermittent: there are not enough satellites for continuous communication over Ukraine. By 2035, Moscow plans to have more than 900 satellites, for comparison, Starlink has more than 10 thousand of them.

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by 2035 we are not sure if there will be russia in this form

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USF [Unmanned System Forces] is regularly inflicting 600+ casualties per day and just recently inflicted 751 casualties in a day. Going over 1,000 casualties per day would be quite a dramatic jump. Something on the battlefield would need to have changed. To be clear though, if just the USF were inflicting ~1000 casualties daily, then you’re looking at a Russian force which is shrinking dramatically.

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These are enormous numbers. We are talking that Russian losses will be equivalent in 1 month what the US lost in the Korean War (3 years) or 1,75 months will be around what the US lost in a Vietnam War (8 years).

And the Russian population is smaller than the US and aged out.

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Their track record of reliability is good, and they have been growing their units and getting more drones, so I am willing to trust them.

Let's remember that the 414th had, last year, an ambitious goal of causing 100 casualties per day, and now they are often doing 200+ per day

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unsustainable for russians. They would need to mobilize additional 600.000 troops which wont be easy.

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54500 casualties is not sustainable in the long run, as recruitment comes up with 35k-40k / month. With 800k troops inside UKR, and the number declining with 10-15k per month, one should mention the difference within a year or so.

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Coeur du Tigre

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This makes so much more sense than the old strategy. It will be interesting if we soon start to see gasoline shortages again and long ones of cars waiting for gas.

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What happened overnight (7 Nov): Russia fired 36 ballistic missiles and 172 drones, with 12 regions targeted and Kyiv hit hardest, according to Ukrainian officials. The strikes damaged substations feeding the capital, including ones linking the Rivne and Khmelnytsky nuclear plants to Kyiv and central Ukraine. The city’s North Bridge — a main artery over the Dnipro — was closed while crews repaired the road surface and downed power lines. A kindergarten was hit. Nine people were injured nationwide, one of them a child; the Guardian reports five hurt in Kyiv, including a 14-year-old girl.

On the ground: Emergency blackouts across the capital and Kyiv Oblast, with water and heating cut in swathes of the city. Mayor Vitali Klitschko says the water system is back to normal and roughly 60% of apartment blocks have heating restored. The metro has suffered full shutdowns during the week, traffic lights are dead at major junctions, and streets have been lit mostly by car headlights. Vinnytsia halved its street lighting; Chernihiv is without power entirely.

The pattern: This caps a brutal week — a huge 3–4 November attack forced emergency cuts, Ukraine’s nuclear plants had to throttle output on 4 November because the grid couldn’t carry it, and a 6 November strike in Zhytomyr severed supply into Kyiv. First snow has already fallen. Zelenskyy accuses Moscow of deliberately trying to “plunge Kyiv and the entire country into a blackout” and freeze civilians into submission through the winter, calling it a war crime.

The diplomatic frame: The timing is pointed. Trilateral talks involving Ukrainian, Russian, and US negotiators are due in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the Kremlin is softening up the table by pummelling a city of millions. Zelenskyy called Jared Kushner’s blueprint “Yalta 2.0” and is pressing Congress — freshly won by the Democrats — for more bilateral support and harder sanctions.

Short version: Russia is trading missiles for darkness and leverage, and Kyiv’s grid is being ground down faster than it can be repaired ahead of winter

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Happened in winter of 2022-2023

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The Big Story: Analysis of Rosstat data leaked by Belarusian hackers confirms over 450,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine - the figure is even higher

Hackers obtained an export of medical death certificates from Rosstat’s database. The researchers examined certificates individually rather than treating a headline total as proof. They identified 440,982 documented war deaths and added 9,118 records with no stated cause of death separately, bringing their register-based figure to 450,100.

These are deaths processed through Russian civil registry offices and entered into state statistics. The figure counts deaths only and leaves out the wounded, the missing, and foreign mercenaries whose deaths do not enter Rosstat's register.

Ukrainian losses are between 155,000 and 204,000 through October 2026.

Classified data hacked from Russia’s Rosstat by Belarusian hackers last week confirmed that Russia has lost over 450,100 soldiers killed in action from February 2022 to 28 August 2026.

Last week, hackers with Belarus’s Cyber Partisans and Silent Crow claimed they were able to download 23 terabytes of data from Russia’s Rosstat, including data on Russia’s military losses in UkraIne.

The data has been authenticated, analyzed, and placed on a public website. The analysis of the leaked data closely aligns with our estimates for Russian losses through the same period, based on our secondary analysis of information from BBC Russia, Mediazona, Meduza, and the Russian Officers Killed in Ukraine project.

According to Rosstat Leaks:

356,056 dead Russian soldiers are coded as Y36, “operations of war” 38,229 were coded Y89.1, which is related to “combat operations” 18,291 “died by military operations”
575 by “terrorist act”
13,671 listed as dead in the occupied territories with no cause
14,160 listed as non-combat deaths in the occupied territory (illness, training accidents, motor vehicle crashes, etc.)
9,118 from “records without a stated cause”

The data does not include military losses from North Korea or other foreign mercenaries, private military companies, or the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR/LNR) from before January 1, 2023. An earlier BBC Russia analysis found that between 21,000 and 23,500 soldiers from the DNR and LNR were killed in action.

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The Rosstat data does not include soldiers who are missing in action, deserters, and known prisoners of war. Actual Russian losses are even higher.

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Ukrainian losses are tracked by the online UA Losses database, which was last updated on October 25. The latest verified data showed 111,952 Ukrainian soldiers have been recorded as KIA since 24 February 2022. The actual number of Ukrainian soldiers killed is estimated to be between 155,500 and 203,550 based on earlier estimates by Western sources. The average age is 39 years old. Since February 2022, 10,297 men between 18 and 24 and 423 who were 60 and older have been killed.


Ukraine’s monthly losses have declined as the front lines stabilized and Ukrainian forces increased their use of drones and uncrewed ground vehicles. In contrast, Russian losses are 26 percent higher in 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.

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