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How does Trump hold Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020?
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:52 am
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:52 am
Let me preface my saying that I am a Trump supporter and I voted for him in the primaries and general election.
I was glossing over the 2008, 2012, 2016 electoral college maps of these 2 states and I think Trump still has plenty of work to do to hold them.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
2008 Wisconsin
Obama: 1.67 million
McCain: 1.26 million
(410k difference)
2012 Wisconsin
Obama: 1.62 million
Romney: 1.407 million
(~220k difference)
2016 Wisconsin
Trump: 1.409 million
Hillary: 1.38 million
(~20k difference)
Trump essentially only was able to pull just 2k more votes than Romney. Hillary just couldn't get anyone out to support her (roughly 200k votes to be exact sat home fore her).
Michigan 16 electoral votes
2008 Michigan
Obama: 2.86 million
McCain: 2.04 million
(820k difference)
2012 Michigan
Obama: 2.56 million
Romney: 2.11 million
(450k difference)
2016 Michigan
Trump: 2.279 million
Hillary: 2.268 million
(11k difference)
Trump was able to attract far more to his side, than Wisconsin, he got 160k more votes than Romney. However once again voters stayed home for Hillary. Around 150k to be exact (coupled with trump pulling 160k more)
The question is how does Trump maintain his numbers in Michigan, while expanding his base to pull more votes? And how does Trump court new voters in Wisconsin (the state I think most likely to turn back blue in 2020 given any Dem candidate)?
Before anyone asks about Pennsylvania. I did not include it because Trump literally expanded his base to the tune of 300k more votes than Romney in 2012 and also took significant Obama votes. PA voters didn't sit out for Hillary they crossed over to Trump.
Also, I think Trumps has an excellent shot at flipping Maine (4 EV) and NH (4 EV) in 2020.
(Trump did pull that 1EV from Maines split vote).
2008 NH
Obama: 384k
McCain:316k
(~70k difference)
2012 NH
Obama: 368k
Romney:327k
(41k difference)
2016 NH
Hillary: 348k
Trump: 345k
(3k difference)
2008 Maine
Obama: 421k
McCain: 296k
(~121k difference)
2012 Maine
Obama: 397k
Romney: 290k
(107k difference)
2016 Maine
Hillary: 357k
Trump: 335k
(22k difference)
Trump made significant gains in these 2 states actually pulling Obama voters to his side. I think he could very well pull these 2 states (which would offset Wisconsin if that went blue in 2020) barring he holds on to MI.
Thoughts?
I was glossing over the 2008, 2012, 2016 electoral college maps of these 2 states and I think Trump still has plenty of work to do to hold them.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
2008 Wisconsin
Obama: 1.67 million
McCain: 1.26 million
(410k difference)
2012 Wisconsin
Obama: 1.62 million
Romney: 1.407 million
(~220k difference)
2016 Wisconsin
Trump: 1.409 million
Hillary: 1.38 million
(~20k difference)
Trump essentially only was able to pull just 2k more votes than Romney. Hillary just couldn't get anyone out to support her (roughly 200k votes to be exact sat home fore her).
Michigan 16 electoral votes
2008 Michigan
Obama: 2.86 million
McCain: 2.04 million
(820k difference)
2012 Michigan
Obama: 2.56 million
Romney: 2.11 million
(450k difference)
2016 Michigan
Trump: 2.279 million
Hillary: 2.268 million
(11k difference)
Trump was able to attract far more to his side, than Wisconsin, he got 160k more votes than Romney. However once again voters stayed home for Hillary. Around 150k to be exact (coupled with trump pulling 160k more)
The question is how does Trump maintain his numbers in Michigan, while expanding his base to pull more votes? And how does Trump court new voters in Wisconsin (the state I think most likely to turn back blue in 2020 given any Dem candidate)?
Before anyone asks about Pennsylvania. I did not include it because Trump literally expanded his base to the tune of 300k more votes than Romney in 2012 and also took significant Obama votes. PA voters didn't sit out for Hillary they crossed over to Trump.
Also, I think Trumps has an excellent shot at flipping Maine (4 EV) and NH (4 EV) in 2020.
(Trump did pull that 1EV from Maines split vote).
2008 NH
Obama: 384k
McCain:316k
(~70k difference)
2012 NH
Obama: 368k
Romney:327k
(41k difference)
2016 NH
Hillary: 348k
Trump: 345k
(3k difference)
2008 Maine
Obama: 421k
McCain: 296k
(~121k difference)
2012 Maine
Obama: 397k
Romney: 290k
(107k difference)
2016 Maine
Hillary: 357k
Trump: 335k
(22k difference)
Trump made significant gains in these 2 states actually pulling Obama voters to his side. I think he could very well pull these 2 states (which would offset Wisconsin if that went blue in 2020) barring he holds on to MI.
Thoughts?
31
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:55 am to Magician2
quote:
Thoughts?
Reagan '84
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:56 am to Magician2
It really will all depend on what this next Congress can get done. If the economy is still healthy, jobs continue to do well, then he has a shot.
However, generally speaking I think it will be tough for him to win WI, MI, and PA again. Just from a pure historical perspective if nothing else. The Democrats in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are going to be worked into a lather by that time, so they’ll probably vote at a 150% rate.
I think he has a better chance of flipping some other states (like you mentioned NH, ME). In my fantasy land, the GOP embraces marijuana legalization and puts Colorado back on the board for the Republicans.
However, generally speaking I think it will be tough for him to win WI, MI, and PA again. Just from a pure historical perspective if nothing else. The Democrats in Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia are going to be worked into a lather by that time, so they’ll probably vote at a 150% rate.
I think he has a better chance of flipping some other states (like you mentioned NH, ME). In my fantasy land, the GOP embraces marijuana legalization and puts Colorado back on the board for the Republicans.
This post was edited on 7/4/18 at 8:58 am
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:56 am to Magician2
By the pussy
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:56 am to Magician2
THe complete transition of the democrat party to the nut progressive democratic socialist wing should help 
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:57 am to Magician2
quote:
Thoughts?
Winning is an addictive drug. The amount of winning these first four years will yield will make 46/50 states red.
Now let’s enjoy our Independence Day.
This post was edited on 7/4/18 at 8:58 am
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:57 am to Magician2
Trump will gain more independent voters who voted for Hill or stayed home and the at this rate the Dems will nominate a far left nominee that will be way too liberal for these states traditional voters
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:58 am to Magician2
union dues are abolished and Trumpocrats and the working class woke up, for a thousand, Alex.
Posted on 7/4/18 at 8:59 am to Strannix
quote:
THe complete transition of the democrat party to the nut progressive democratic socialist wing should help
You say that but if someone like Kamela got the nod I think she could pull WI, just because solely she would be more likeable than Hillary. She might also turn out the black vote higher in MI and PA just for her skin color.
Just a thought
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:00 am to Magician2
Playing this clip over and over again --
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:01 am to Magician2
I've listened to Trump give three speeches over the last two weeks. He's on message. Economy, immigration and how the GOP differs from the DNC on each.
As long as the hammer continues to hit those nails he has the opportunity to win big.
As long as the hammer continues to hit those nails he has the opportunity to win big.
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:02 am to Magician2
As long as dems want to raise taxes and call white people rackst, he will win.
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:03 am to 4LSU2
quote:His mother makes him wear a helmet to play in the yard.
46/50 states red
Trump has a decent chance of reelection. 46/50 is commitment-to-padded-room delusional.
This post was edited on 7/4/18 at 9:04 am
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:06 am to Magician2
quote:
How does Trump hold Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020?
By not advocating for the abolishment of ICE, the rolling back of his own tax cuts, or socialism in general.
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:07 am to Erin Go Bragh
Trumps message certainly resonated with PA voters. Like I said, Hillary didn’t lose because voters sat out. She loss because a swarm of voters crossed over to Trump.
If he stays on message I actually think PA is safe for him. Which is huge because of 20 EV it carries.
If he stays on message I actually think PA is safe for him. Which is huge because of 20 EV it carries.
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:08 am to Magician2
quote:
How does Trump hold Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020
By letting the left keep talking.
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:10 am to Magician2
You’re not taking into account the fact that the DNC is embracing socialism and far left policies. This will push centrists into Republican arms.
Just look at the clusterfrick atop the democrats’ leader board for a presidential candidate.
Just look at the clusterfrick atop the democrats’ leader board for a presidential candidate.
This post was edited on 7/4/18 at 9:12 am
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:15 am to Eli Goldfinger
If Kamela is nominated then it will definitely be a litmus test to see how well someone of her ideology fairs in WI, MI, PA.
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:26 am to Magician2
I’m looking at what you posted and what I see is a steady decline in dem voters going back to the 08 election
Posted on 7/4/18 at 9:30 am to Eli Goldfinger
Let’s also not forget Bernie won MI primary. His message resonated with those voters. At the time that has a huge upset for a socialist candidate to pull.
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