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re: Historical polar motion... has fully ended

Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:12 pm to
Posted by BlueFalcon
Aberdeen Scotland
Member since Dec 2011
3595 posts
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:12 pm to
So not even 1 km of change per decade?

So over 5000 years we're looking at a 300 to 500 km shift in altitude max?

So Lake Charles would be looking at weather similar to Hot Springs Arkansas in 500 years?

So not exactly 'don't service your AC' type change over the next five centuries

Thanks for letting us know, we'll be ready
This post was edited on 1/2/26 at 11:17 pm
Posted by somethingdifferent
Member since Aug 2024
1708 posts
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:13 pm to
quote:

I am going to need a 140IQ person to explain how Orlando is above sea level and Vail ski resort is under water?
Because if the Earth's core decouples, elevations will change all over the world. Just because something is at 7k feet today, doesn't mean it will stay that way
Posted by SouthEasternKaiju
SouthEast... you figure it out
Member since Aug 2021
43143 posts
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:19 pm to
That’s not how any of this works
Posted by somethingdifferent
Member since Aug 2024
1708 posts
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:21 pm to
quote:

If you want this taken seriously (and I mean really seriously), here’s what would be required:
1. Persistence over 6–12 months
2. Agreement across:
• IERS C04
• Independent VLBI solutions
• LOD anomalies
3. A physical mechanism, not just curve-fitting
4. Error analysis showing this is not endpoint bias
5. Demonstration that previous Chandler collapses are qualitatively different
Excellent overview. We'll apparently have a good idea by June but could know sooner

quote:

Now it’s time to slow the inference down to match the physics
I think this is why most physicists are in a wait and see mode. The data will paint the picture
Posted by somethingdifferent
Member since Aug 2024
1708 posts
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:25 pm to
quote:

Who the frick are these people supposed to be and why should I care about them?
Feel free to investigate on your own. People are getting bent out of shape for the wrong reason. A person looked at some data from NOAA and IERS and make an extrapolation. He apparently showed his mathematical calculations. Yes, there are alternative viewpoints. It's either going to happen or not. We don't know right now. We should have a much clearer picture by June. If the data is an anamoly, stand down from red alert. Otherwise, get your earthly affairs in order because we're about to experience turbulence
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
42287 posts
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:28 pm to
Hey, listen OP.

I was just talking to some buddies the other day about a hike I did and how much shift there has been in magnetic north since the 70s and early 80s (based on an old topo map I had sent to me by one of my men, that he found from this thing we did in Latin America).

So when I got home, after crunching the numbers on the AT with an old SOCOM buddy of mine ... we did an overlay and then put the question to grok .... and it blew our minds. It has drifted about 750 miles from where it was on the old maps we were issued on that mission.

Then we called another one of our buddies, over in Atlanta, who had been a base commander up in Alaska, and presented him with the numbers and he told us he was aware that the drift was accelerating even back before he retired 10 years ago.

For any map readers who have ever relied on topo maps and had to put a compass on a map ... it's a dramatic thing to suddenly see and realize.

I don't see how it cannot be a potential catastrophe in the making ... but Grok says there's nothing to worry about any time soon. It's arching toward Siberia.

Posted by somethingdifferent
Member since Aug 2024
1708 posts
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:28 pm to
quote:

That’s not how any of this works
It has already been stated that there are alternative viewpoints. The data isn't conclusive right now but it's definitely something that's possible
Posted by SouthEasternKaiju
SouthEast... you figure it out
Member since Aug 2021
43143 posts
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:55 pm to
Basic geological knowledge says different.
Posted by International_Aggie
Member since Oct 2012
1993 posts
Posted on 1/3/26 at 2:34 am to
I can't believe I live in a time where I'd get to experience at least 10 apocalypses in 25 years.
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